Nullius in Verba

In this episode we discussed the 8-step method of theory building proposed by Robin Dubin in his classic 1969 book Theory Building.   Shownotes Dubin, R. (1969). Theory building. Free Press. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/160506.html Lynham, S. A. (2002). Quantitative Research and Theory Building: Dubin’s Method. Advances in Developing Human Resources, 4(3), 242–276. https://doi.org/10.1177/15222302004003003 Elms, A. C. (1975). The crisis of confidence in social psychology. American Psychologist, 30(10), 967. Meehl, P. E. (1978). Theoretical Risks and Tabular Asterisks: Sir Karl, Sir Ronald, and the Slow Progress of Soft Psychology. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 46(4), 806–834. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-006X.46.4.806 Swedberg, R. (2014). The art of social theory. Princeton University Press. Ben Wright: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Drake_Wright Yarkoni, T., & Westfall, J. (2017). Choosing Prediction Over Explanation in Psychology: Lessons From Machine Learning. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 12(6), 1100–1122. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691617693393 Isaac, M. G., Koch, S., & Nefdt, R. (2022). Conceptual engineering: A road map to practice. Philosophy Compass, 17(10), e12879. https://doi.org/10.1111/phc3.12879  

In this episode, we discuss the barriers to cumulative science, including inconsistent measurement tools, overreliance on single studies, and the large volume of research publications. Can replications, interdisciplinary collaborations, and prospective meta-analyses help us solve this issue? Can AI solve all our problems?  And do most scientists treat their theories like toothbrushes?   Shownotes Opening quote by George Sarton Sarton, G. (1927). Introduction to the History of Science (Vol. 376).  Is Science Cumulative? a Physicist Viewpoint: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4020-6279-7_10 Psychological Methods. (2009). Special Issue: Multi-Study Methods for Building a Cumulative Psychological Science. Walter Mischel, Becoming a Cumulative Science  Dorothy Bishop - Why we need cumulative science (AIMOS) Watkins, J. W. (1984). Science and Skepticism. Princeton University Press.  

A reading of: Forscher, B. K. (1963). Chaos in the Brickyard. Science, 142(3590), 339–339. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.142.3590.339

In today’s episode, we continue our conversation about preregistration. How flexible can we be when we preregister, without increasing flexibility in our analysis? How well do people preregister, and what does a good preregistration look like? And how do we deal with deviations from preregistrations?   Shownotes   Dubin, R. (1969). Theory building. Free Press. His full quote is: "There is no more devastating commendation that the self-designated theorist makes of the researcher than to label his work purely descriptive".  Claesen, A., Gomes, S., Tuerlinckx, F., & Vanpaemel, W. (2021). Comparing dream to reality: An assessment of adherence of the first generation of preregistered studies. Royal Society Open Science, 8(10), 211037. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211037 Akker, O. van den, Bakker, M., Assen, M. A. L. M. van, Pennington, C. R., Verweij, L., Elsherif, M., Claesen, A., Gaillard, S. D. M., Yeung, S. K., Frankenberger, J.-L., Krautter, K., Cockcroft, J. P., Kreuer, K. S., Evans, T. R., Heppel, F., Schoch, S. F., Korbmacher, M., Yamada, Y., Albayrak-Aydemir, N., … Wicherts, J. (2023). The effectiveness of preregistration in psychology: Assessing preregistration strictness and preregistration-study consistency. MetaArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/h8xjw Sequential analysis and alpha spending functions https://lakens.github.io/statistical_inferences/10-sequential.html  Bishop, D. V. M. (2018). Fallibility in Science: Responding to Errors in the Work of Oneself and Others. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 2515245918776632. https://doi.org/10.1177/2515245918776632 FDAAA Trial Tracker https://fdaaa.trialstracker.net  Ensinck, E., & Lakens, D. (2023). An Inception Cohort Study Quantifying How Many Registered Studies are Published. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/5hkjz Quantitude episode on preregistration https://quantitudepod.org/s3e07-in-defense-of-researcher-degrees-of-freedom/  Lakens, D. (2023). When and How to Deviate from a Preregistration. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/ha29k   

In this two part episode we discuss the fine art of preregistration. We go back into the history of preregistration, its evolution, and current use. Do we preregister to control the Type 1 error rate, or to show that we derived our prediction from theory a priori? Can and should we preregister exploratory or secondary data analysis? And how severe is the issue of severe testing?   Shownotes ClinicalTrials.gov You can preregister on AsPredicted and the OSF Johnson, M. (1975). Models of Control and Control of Bias. European Journal of Parapsychology, 36–44. SPIRIT Checklist Bishop, D. V. M. (2018). Fallibility in Science: Responding to Errors in the Work of Oneself and Others. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 1(3), 432–438. https://doi.org/10.1177/2515245918776632 FDA trials tracker: https://fdaaa.trialstracker.net  Ensinck, E., & Lakens, D. (2023). An Inception Cohort Study Quantifying How Many Registered Studies are Published. PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/5hkjz van den Akker, O. R., van Assen, M. A. L. M., Enting, M., de Jonge, M., Ong, H. H., Rüffer, F., Schoenmakers, M., Stoevenbelt, A. H., Wicherts, J. M., & Bakker, M. (2023). Selective Hypothesis Reporting in Psychology: Comparing Preregistrations and Corresponding Publications. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 6(3), 25152459231187988. https://doi.org/10.1177/25152459231187988 Claesen, A., Gomes, S., Tuerlinckx, F., & Vanpaemel, W. (2021). Comparing dream to reality: An assessment of adherence of the first generation of preregistered studies. Royal Society Open Science, 8(10), 211037. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211037 Bakan, D. (1966). The test of significance in psychological research. Psychological Bulletin, 66(6), 423–437. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0020412 Rosenthal, R. (1966). Experimenter effects in behavioral research. Appleton-Century-Crofts. Johnson, M. (1975). Models of Control and Control of Bias. European Journal of Parapsychology, 36–44. de Groot, A. D. (1969). Methodology. Mouton & Co. Claesen, A., Lakens, D., Vanpaemel, W., & Dongen, N. van. (2022). Severity and Crises in Science: Are We Getting It Right When We’re Right and Wrong When We’re Wrong? PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/ekhc8  

In the first episode of 2024, we discuss the double-edged sword: reverence to authority. Should scientists respect others on whose shoulders they stand? Or should they be wary of appeal to authority? How should scientists deal with other sources of authority in science, like for example, the government or academic societies? And how can we differentiate true expertise from mere authority?  Enjoy.    Shownotes Frank, P. (1956). The role of authority in the interpretation of science. Synthese, 10, 335–338. Barber, B. (1952). Science and the social order. Glencoe, Ill. : Free Press. http://archive.org/details/sciencesocialord0000barb Barber, B. (1961). Resistance by Scientists to Scientific Discovery. Science, 134(3479), 596–602. Kitcher, P. (1992). Authority, deference, and the role of individual reasoning in science. In E. Mcmullin (Ed.), The social dimensions of science. Notre Dame: The University of Notre Dame Press Polanyi, M. (1962). The republic of science. Minerva, 1(1), 54–73 The practice of two-spaces after the end of a sentence comes from when type-writers used monospaced typefaces: https://slate.com/technology/2011/01/two-spaces-after-a-period-why-you-should-never-ever-do-it.html 

The Fixation of Belief. Charles S. Peirce. Popular Science Monthly 12 (November 1877), 1-15. http://peirce.org/writings/p107.html 

In this second installment of The Anticreativity Letters, we continue discussing the Tempter's tactics for stifling creativity and how to overcome them. 

In the first of a two-part episode, we discuss The Anticreativity Letters by Richard Nisbett, in which a senior "tempter" advises a junior tempter on ways to prevent a young psychologist from being a productive and creative scientist. Nisbett, R. E. (1990). The anticreativity letters: Advice from a senior tempter to a junior tempter. American Psychologist, 45(9), 1078–1082. BMJ Christmas issue: https://www.bmj.com/about-bmj/resources-authors/article-types/christmas-issue Quote by Ira Glass: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/309485-nobody-tells-this-to-people-who-are-beginners-i-wish

A reading of: Nisbett, R. E. (1990). The anticreativity letters: Advice from a senior tempter to a junior tempter. American Psychologist, 45(9), 1078–1082. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.45.9.1078