The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

The TreppWire Podcast, A CRE Show
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Feb 11, 2022 • 38min

122. Making Sense of Inflation & CRE, Hotel Headwinds, Office Moves, Multifamily Benchmarks

Inflation is the big focus right now, so how likely is it that CRE businesses absorb higher costs vs. passing them on? In this week’s episode, we talk about the inflation number and what it means for CRE, then we dive into Super Bowl hotel headwinds, a Houston office opportunity, and news for the beleaguered American Dream Mall. We also run through the hotel stories, office movies, and multifamily transactions for benchmarking. Episode Notes: • Inflation highest in years (0:25) • Will CRE property owners absorb higher costs? (3:05) • Inflation challenges on the apartment side (4:49) • Super bowl hotel headwinds (7:12) • Hotel stories (11:03) • Houston office opportunity (15:14) • Office moves from Boston to NYC (19:53) • American Dream Mall news (22:40) • Multifamily transactions for benchmarks (26:25) • Shoutouts (30:53) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Feb 4, 2022 • 52min

121. Mixed-Bag of Office News in US Cities, CMBS vs. Bank CRE Loan Performance

In this week's episode, we review recent CMBS and bank CRE loan performance, examining delinquencies across property types. Then, in the latest CRE news, we discuss positive and negative office stories in Houston, Omaha, and St. Louis, dive into mall REIT, PREIT's sales and several other mall stories, and discuss some long-term viability news for the San Francisco market. Episode Notes: Market activity (0:50) Spotify news (5:10) CMBS delinquency rate (9:01) Bank loan performance data (12:33) Office stories: positive news in Houston (16:11) Texas real estate sentiment (19:32) Office green shoot in Omaha (24:24) Crabgrass in St. Louis (26:09) PREIT & mall news (30:55) San Francisco news: long-term viability (36:49) Georgia mall Trading Alert (41:19) Multifamily quick hit (43:23) Shoutouts (46:43) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Feb 2, 2022 • 39min

120. Retail Rundown with Lauren Thomas, CNBC: Peloton Woes, Earnings Predictions

In a special guest episode, we welcome Lauren Thomas, CNBC Retail and Real Estate Reporter to give the retail rundown, sharing the latest news in retail real estate. Lauren dives into her breaking Peloton production news, gives an update on the state of Kohl’s, Amazon, and other department stores, and shares predictions for first-quarter retail earnings. Episode Notes: Background (0:23) Peloton news (2:51) Is Peloton a going concern problem? (10:30) Kohl’s activity (12:40) Great Q4 retail earnings, how much was e-commerce? (20:01) Amazon update: physical stores (25:33) Does separating e-commerce and brick-and-mortar put pressure on store closures? (28:10) What's to come for store closures (31:22) Sam Zell comments: retail vs. office (34:00) Predictions for Q1 retail earnings (35:22) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Jan 28, 2022 • 40min

119. Market Volatility & CRE, Mall Loan Defeasances, Hotel Distress

The markets have been on a wild ride as investors digested news this week, but how does the volatility impact CRE? In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we dive into what matters for CRE and CMBS participants. Then, we discuss several big stories: large retail loan defeasances which represent a positive sign for CMBS investors, new hotel issuance, and our distressed hotel analysis. We close by sharing our predictions ahead of the NFL playoffs. Episode Notes: How does market volatility impact CRE? (0:53) CMBS market performance (8:34) Takeaways for non-CMBS investors (16:36) Mall loan defeasances – positive signs for retail (18:13) Hotel distress and losses (28:02) Shoutouts (34:49) NFL predictions (35:45) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Jan 21, 2022 • 39min

118. Risk & Reward of Debt vs. Equity with Pasquale Cardone II, PC2 Capital

In this week’s episode, Pasquale Cardone II, founder of PC2 Capital joins the team to discuss the risk and reward of debt vs. equity in the commercial real estate space... given what we have seen with market, business cycle, and asset type risk. We dive into REIT equity vs. CMBS credit, predictions for interest rates and property types, contrarian market views, and property sector divergence. Episode Notes: Market predictions (0:52) Volatility: Public equity REITs vs. CMBS debt (4:00) Bullishness on spreads (8:06) Private equity’s impact (12:53) How rising rates play into REIT performance (14:25) Office sector divergence (17:30) What’s next for the b & c office operator? (19:25) Retail in 2022 (22:17) Interest in hotels (27:15) Contrarian views (31:37) Shoutouts (36:55) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Jan 14, 2022 • 51min

117. Unpleasant CRE Surprises, Hotel & Office Happenings, CREFC Confidential

For the last few days, while attending the CREFC conference, Manus commented that the prevailing sentiment for 2022 is that the year will look like 2021... but also noted similarities to 2005. So the question is, how likely is it that? In this week’s episode, we go back and forth on this sentiment and highlight takeaways from the conference. Then, we dive into some unpleasant surprises in CRE and talk through positive stories for office and news in the hotel market. Episode Notes Economic update (0:29) Prevailing CRE sentiment from CREFC (10:47) Unpleasant surprises in CRE (25:20) NY hotel valuation reduction (26:40) CA property sold to pay off at par (28:23) CA pulls back on office leases (29:21) Hotel news (33:16) Positive office headlines (38:12) Shoutouts (44:38) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Jan 7, 2022 • 41min

116. Rare Uptick in Delinquencies, Big Week for Office News, Retail Closures

Trepp reported that for the first time in 18 months, the CMBS delinquency rate increased, which is largely attributed to several new and significant office loans going delinquent. In this week’s episode, we dive into the rare uptick, highlight several important office stories, review the Fed minutes, and examine recent store closures for Macy’s, Bed Bath & Beyond, and the like. Episode Notes: Fed minutes (0:43) Delinquency report (11:12) Office stories (17:34) Office crabgrass (23:48) Green shoot news (25:25) Retail store closures (26:23) Retail green shoot with some caveats(29:45) Shoutouts (34:21) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Dec 30, 2021 • 55min

115. Looking into the CRE Crystal Ball: 2022 Predictions & Resolutions

This year, we’ve covered the changes in the commercial real estate and macroeconomic markets as the world tried to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. In this week’s episode, we take a crystal ball approach, sharing our predictions for the economy and society in 2022 and then for each of the major CRE property types. Happy New Year to all our listeners! Episode Notes: • Macro predictions and state of the market (0:40) • Societal predictions (8:02) • Impact on CRE (13:12) • Office predictions (14:31) • Chicago office news (22:24) • Lodging predictions (27:31) • Predictions for retail (33:31) • What happens to the malls that do die? (38:22) • CMBX 6 predictions (41:04) • Multifamily (42:28) • CRE CLOs (45:13) • Shoutouts (48:36) • Resolutions (49:53) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Dec 22, 2021 • 49min

114. Scary Parallels of Retail & Office, Mall Comps, Alternative Asset Classes

In this week’s episode, Lonnie Hendry joins to discuss scary parallels in the retail and office sectors and to share an update on some alternative real estate asset classes. We also dive into mall comps, a parade of good news for hotels, and discuss holiday parties in the Metaverse... Happy Holidays to all! Omicron news and market update (0:24) Parallels between retail and office (6:23) Latest office stories (11:53) Must-know office news (16:56) Metaverse holiday parties (19:27) Alternative asset classes (22:23) Big retail green shoot: movie theaters (27:09) Mall comps (25:59) How would you value a movie studio? Dreamworks news (31:57) Parade of good news for hotels (36:50) Self-storage update (39:51) Shoutouts (43:43) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Dec 17, 2021 • 36min

113. Health Check on the Heavily-Watched Retail, Office, & Lodging Sectors

In this week’s episode, we look at some of the most talked-about commercial real estate sectors throughout the pandemic: retail, office, and lodging. We dive into the latest macro news impacting these sectors and then turn to some key CMBS and CRE headlines to note. We also ask listeners to send us their predictions for the markets and CRE in 2022 for an upcoming episode. Send us your thoughts to podcast@trepp.com. Episode Notes: • Market movement (0:38) • Retail headlines (7:30) • Office news (18:42) • Green shoots for office (21:25) • Changes to return to office (23:22) • Hotel update and top stories (27:59) • Shoutouts (33:49) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC

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