The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

The TreppWire Podcast, A CRE Show
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Jul 20, 2023 • 51min

206. Irrational Exuberance in the Markets?; Property Transfers & Deed-in-Lieu; Multifamily Expenses

The markets seem to have gone from optimistic to exuberant over the last two weeks... In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss whether we are seeing 'irrational exuberance' yet, then dive into housing starts, jobless claims, retail sales, and bank earnings. In CRE, we break down several large office and retail stories, discuss more on multifamily syndicators, and take a look at property expense data across the US. Tune in now. This episode of The TreppWire Podcast is sponsored by BetterPitch: https://www.betterpitch.com/ Episode Notes: Irrational exuberance in the market? (0:23) Macro data (4:09) Bank earnings (9:27) Government office occupancy (12:57) Trepp Flash: Lead cable exposure (14:23) Office value reduction (16:05) Brutal sales comps (18:26) Deed in lieus (20:30) Office loans in special servicing (26:02) Retail stories (3:48) Multifamily syndicator follow-up (36:52) Multifamily property expenses (41:48) Shoutouts (45:14) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Jul 12, 2023 • 51min

205. Risk On! Inflection Point or False Flag? Enthusiasm Everywhere, Bearishness in Short Supply

In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, after the CPI and PPI readings came in, we question if the rally and equity pile on was the start of something bigger or a sign of participants getting ahead of themselves. We discuss borrowers handing back the keys, multifamily CRE CLO borrowing, bank earnings, and big stories for hotels, office valuations, subleases, and retail. Tune in now. This episode is sponsored by BetterPitch: https://www.betterpitch.com/ Episode Notes: - Economic update: CPI, PPI, company earnings (0:23) - Risk back on, inflection or false start? (7:53) - Multifamily CRE CLO borrowing (13:26) - CRE borrowers handing back keys (17:52) - Bank earnings (22:05) - Ashford’s plans for $1B portfolio (23:59) - Hotel stories (30:46) - Office valuation cut (33:22) - Subleases (35:46) - Retail news (41:20) - Shoutouts (47:48) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Jul 6, 2023 • 44min

204. No Holiday Lull for CRE: Comps Galore, Big Office News, H1 CMBS Recap

Although we expected a lull in market news and data during the holiday week, that was not the case for CRE. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we start with macro news that made headlines: jobs numbers, personal expenditures, and Treasury yields. We have a lot to cover in CRE with some large office stories, more sales comps across property types for the market to chew on, and a first half of 2023 CMBS recap of issuance, spreads, and pricing data. Buckle up for a ‘Live Wire.’ Tune in now. Episode Notes: • Economic update (0:23) • First-half 2023 CMBS recap (6:40) • Trepp Property Price Index (12:17) • Office Trading Alert (14:00) • Philly office stories (18:03) • Subleases (23:20) • Green shoots (27:15) • Crabgrass (28:27) • CRE loan maturities (31:10) • Comps, comps, comps (32:51) • Shoutouts (39:10) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Jun 29, 2023 • 53min

203. Comps Comps Comps, Sales Comps Dominate News; Delinquencies Rise

There was plenty of positive economic data to digest this week, all while Fed Chair Powell was “taking the punch bowl away,” commenting that more rate hikes may be necessary. In this week’s episode, we break it down. And in CRE, there were several large (and unpleasant) comps for investors to digest. We also analyze Trepp’s latest delinquency report; examine defeasance, yield maintenance, and discounted prepayments; and talk about a large industrial story. Tune in now. Episode Notes: • Economic updates (0:23) • Defeasance, yield maintenance, discounted prepayments (10:02) • Bed Bath & Beyond auction(15:12) • Trepp CMBS delinquency report (18:10) • Office green shoots (22:50) • Office crabgrass (28:26) • Sales comps across the U.S. (33:46) • Multifamily net operating income (41:42) • Prologis + Blackstone(44:18) • Shoutouts (47:51) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Jun 22, 2023 • 47min

202. Did Fed Pause Stall the Market? New Issue Pricing & Property Sector Rapid-Fire Rundown

In this episode, we discuss what we saw in the markets, starting with stocks hitting a wall after Fed Chair Powell indicated that more interest rate hikes were necessary. In CMBS, we dive into new issue pricing that provides market clarity. We also have a lot of CRE news to cover; a large apartment loan going to special servicing, office valuation reductions, some signs of life for the NYC office market, and several stories in industrial and life sciences. Episode Notes: • Economic updates (0:23) • New issue pricing (7:39) • Multifamily news (13:15) • Office valuations (18:29) • Office stories (20:29) • Signs of life for NYC office (23:20) • Retail green shoots (27:18) • Negative retail news (29:02) • Industrial headline (32:11) • Life science stories (32:57) • Shoutouts (38:29)
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Jun 16, 2023 • 48min

201. Optimism Hard to Find at CRE Event; Industrial Hitting a Wall?; Retail Owner Throws in Towel

This week, all eyes were on the inflation numbers, the Fed’s interest rate decision, and retail sales. In this episode, we dive into the macro news and discuss whether we think this is it for the CPI and Fed Funds Rate or if we’ll continue talking about it in the second half of the year. In CRE, we share takeaways from the annual CREFC conference in terms of issuance, price discovery, and predictions for the market. We also dive into an industrial demand story, analyze multifamily data, and note some big news in retail and office. Tune in now. Episode Notes: • CPI, Fed, retail sales (0:23) • CRE conference takeaways (7:58) • Industrial demand (15:20) • Multifamily: digging through the data (21:18) • Retail trading alert (29:28) • Mixed-use 101 (32:53) • Office stories (36:59) • Shoutouts (42:36)
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Jun 10, 2023 • 51min

200. Cutting Through the Haze; Looming Hotel Default Renews Lodging Concerns; More Office Subleases

In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, the Trepp team tries to cut through the haze (in the economic markets, CRE, and with regard to the smoke covering much of the Northeast). We discuss what may have seemed like a quiet week and what is really on the horizon. In property-type news, we dive into a story about a looming hotel default that is renewing concerns about the lodging market, and for office: there seems to be no end to the sublease news. Happy 200th episode of The TreppWire Podcast and thanks for listening! Tune in now. This episode is sponsored by Commercial Real Estate Direct: https://crenews.com/ Episode Notes: • Economic updates (0:23) • Loans paying off on maturity (9:45) • Hotel trading alert (12:18) • Positive stories for the hotel market (16:30) • Office green shoots (21:53) • Office crabgrass (27:15) • Retail sales (38:32) • Systemic bank risk (41:53) • Shoutouts (44:48) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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Jun 2, 2023 • 45min

199. Office Delinquencies Hit 5-Year High; Issuance Defies Debt Ceiling Drama; State of CRE Market

This episode is sponsored by BetterPitch: https://www.betterpitch.com/. In this week’s episode, we break down the shift in economic news that will be bringing us back to our regularly scheduled programming of interest rate decisions, inflation, and job numbers. In commercial real estate, we had a big week for data – we saw the issuance of a CMBS deal, which is defying the debt ceiling drama and we also saw CMBS delinquency readings that investors have been anticipating for months. In office, there are several sublease stories of note. Tune in now. Episode Notes: - Economic updates: turning our attention back to other economic indicators (0:23) - CRE state of the market (7:43) - CMBS deal coming to market (9:00) - Can CRE operate in a frozen market? (14:21) - Delinquency report (18:16) - Office losses at banks (26:20) - Office stories to watch (28:06) - Retail sales (37:58) - Shoutouts (40:20) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp-llc Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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May 26, 2023 • 55min

198. Charting CRE Distress from Peak to (Silicon) Valley: TreppWire Recorded LIVE at NAIOP

In a special episode of our week-in-review podcast, the team shares a live presentation we gave at NAIOP Silicon Valley’s Capital Markets event. We have a data-driven review of what’s happening to commercial real estate in the region and across the U.S. We dive into data on the recent bank turmoil, delinquencies and distress across the country, loan maturities, lease renewals, occupancy, and more. Tune in now. If you are looking for the presentation that goes along with this podcast, send an email to podcast@trepp.com. Episode Notes: - Economic update (0:23) - Silicon Valley: poised for rebirth? (4:07) - Silicon Valley challenges (8:43) - Bank data and distress (13:23) - First Republic’s collapse by the numbers (16:15) - Regional bank market share (19:40) - Delinquencies across the country (26:31) - Risk ratings (30:57) - Upcoming distress (33:44) - Loan maturities (34:59) - Sublease availability (39:43) - Occupancy and the knock-on effect (43:14) - Lease terms, renewals, and rent (47:24) - CRE stories to watch in Silicon Valley (50:00) - Shoutouts (54:02) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC
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May 19, 2023 • 43min

197. Debt Ceiling Deal Debate; CRE Poker Face: Hold ‘Em or Fold ‘Em; Office Special Servicing Moves

With slowing regional bank turmoil, all eyes shifted to the debt ceiling deal debate. In this week’s episode, we examine the latest economic news. Mike Flood of the Mortgage Bankers Association shares his perspective on the debt ceiling and bank regulation. In CRE, we saw several office loans transfer to special servicing, sublease stories, and comps. We also share retail green shoots and crabgrass, a hotel comeback story, and discuss our bank CRE concentration analysis. And in an ode to Sam Zell, we reference his mentality of knowing when to “hold ‘em” and when to “fold ‘em.” Tune in now. Episode Notes: • Economic update(0:23) • Debt ceiling thoughts: Mike Flood, MBA (6:45) • Bank executive testimonials (9:35) • Regulatory changes ahead (11:01) • Bank CRE concentrations (15:14) • Office special servicing transfers (18:19) • Sublease stories (24:10) • Office comps (27:58) • Retail crabgrass (30:02) • Retail green shoots (33:35) • Hotel comeback story(36:12) • Shoutouts (38:51) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC

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