This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly sanguine view of the economy in 2023: Why cyclical stocks should outperform the technology and defensive sectors, and why he's expecting inflation to drop to 3.5% by the second half of the year. Content Highlights Inflationary recessions are different from deflationary ones. The last four were the latter. If there is a recession this year, it will be the former (02:18); Earnings downside is limited in this scenario, by 5% based on what happened in similar situations in the past, and earnings should actually go up (5:56); Tech margins should continue to be under pressure but economically-sensitive cyclical stocks should see margin expansion (10:50); The US labor market has actually started to weaken considerably -- and not due to Fed policy (12:18); There have been some big adjustments in the labor market post-pandemic (16:47); The 'wealth destruction effect' from tech stocks selling off is negligible (27:35); One point of concern: the deficit. This is where the implosion in wealth could affect things (32:59); The coming budget battle in Congress is worth paying attention to (34:41); The 'higher for longer' Fed interest rate hike thesis has gained traction. What this means for stocks (43:27); Inflation: Expect 3.5% CPI by mid-year (47:37). More Information on the Guest Substack: Ironsides Macroeconomics; Twitter: @BarryKnapp. Not intended as investment advice.

Alex Chausovsky, vice president of analytics and consulting at Miller Resource Group, rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly upbeat economic outlook for 2023, driven by a healthy labor market in the US. Content Highlights There may be a recession in 2023 but the US labor market should hold up just fine (3:03); The guest's assessment is due to first-hand knowledge as his employer is a recruiting firm. None of their clients are slowing hiring (5:37); The trend is due in part to re-shoring of high-end manufacturing to the US, but also to non-US companies seeking to establish manufacturing centers stateside (7:46); The Federal Reserve has been hiking rates aggressively and plans to continue this policy (albeit less aggressively) in 2023, but most of the damage may be done already (9:12) With inflation abating there will be less impetus for the Fed to "truly break things" in 2023 (13:05); Supply chain issues have mostly been resolved, with auto production and semiconductors especially benefiting. Further easing can be expected on the labor side (14:44); One sector of the economy that is clearly poised to benefit: automation (16:56); Background on the guest (22:56); Housing has already contracted but this should turn around by the end of 2023 or early 2024 (31:32); The outcome he's expecting in his native Ukraine (37:35). More Information on the Guest Website: MillerResource.com; LinkedIn: AlexChausovsky; Twitter: @AChausovsky (not very active).

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, joins the podcast to discuss his view on asset allocation going into 2023: why he is bullish on hard assets like energy and bearish on fixed income -- and why the inflationary environment is likely going to stick around. Content Highlights How Centerfin was set up coming into this year and what went into its contrarian decision to avoid fixed income (4:06); Current views on the market after a tough year (5:25); Centerfin's take is to be long hard assets, including commodities and commodity-linked equities while continuing to avoid fixed income like bonds (7:44); The environment is different now. There has been a regime change since 2017. Inflation can't just be exported anymore (9:48); There will likely be a recession. Once we emerge from it, leading industries will probably be different than they were in past recoveries (11:18); Why Centerfin is bullish energy and how they are playing it (12:55); Their chosen ETF to get exposure to clean energy (14:48); There is no need to buy international (ex-US) energy stocks (16:36); Short discussion on the concept of introducing different prices for different uses of energy (18:48); Re-shoring from China with Apple (AAPL) moving all its production out of the country and how to potentially play that trend (20:46); Background on the guest and what got him to start Centerfin (25:53); Distressed investing remains out of reach for most investors but Centerfin is considering ways to change that... (30:52); The bullish case for copper (39:13); How best to gain exposure to uranium (40:00). More on Kyrill Asatur and Centerfin Website: Centerfin.co; Twitter: @WallStHobbes; LinkedIn page; Facebook: CenterfinHQ; Instagram: @CenterfinHQ. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. Michael Pisani, aka Options Mike, joins the podcast to discuss why he's anticipating a year-end rally in stocks.  Content Highlights It's been a tough year for stocks and risk assets. That may be about to change (2:10); Jerome Powell and the Fed have twice this year fooled markets into anticipating a pivot. But something has changed and the FOMC is no longer unanimous with its hawkishness (4:04); There is still a lot of cash still on the sidelines (6:46); Specific areas of the market Pisani likes here. And specific stocks, primarily Ford (F) and to a lesser extent General Motors (GM), both as longterm plays (11:42); Another stock he's bullish on: Snowflake (SNOW) and several that are candidates to go to zero (12:33); An easy contrarian play: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). Yes, really (15:46); Pisani's take on cryptos (18:31); Background on the guest (23:44). More on Options Mike Website: SmartOptionTrading.com; Twitter: @OptionsMike. Not intended as investment advice.

Premium subscribers received this episode several days early -- and without ads or announcements -- as they do all podcast episodes. Sign up on Supercast or Substack. You can also take our listener survey to receive a free month of access. Jeremy Cordon joins the podcast to discuss his Goldback creation. These gold-imbued currency notes are worth upwards of 1/1000 a troy ounce and are already circulating (and being used) for point-of-sale transactions. Content Highlights Goldbacks seek to solve one of the challenges of using gold as a currency of exchange: the lack of small denominations that can be used in point-of-sale transactions (2:57); A single goldback is worth 1/1000 of a troy ounce of gold, or about $4 at current rates. The notes are imbued with physical gold through a microtechnology process and serialized (5:06); Goldbacks trade at a premium to physical gold because of the engineering and artistic labor that goes into their production -- and demand, as supply has historically been limited (8:54) Goldbacks as a disaster hedge (12:48); Background on the guest and how he came to create goldbacks (16:57); The limitations of cryptocurrencies when it comes to creating a gold-backed currency, through the guest's own experience (21:35); The legality of creating gold-backed currency (24:12); Between $8 million and $12 million-worth of goldbacks are currently in circulation, but goldback.com is a wholesaler (26:48); The guest's investing strategy and the concept of gold-backed leases as a way to profit from the goldback trend (30:57). More on Jeremy Cordon Website: Goldback.com; LinkedIn page; YouTube channel; Instagram: @Goldback. Disclaimer: The host does not own goldbacks, holds no particular view on goldbacks, and does not benefit from the sale of goldbacks.

A ‘highlight clip‘ of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Nov. 7, the same day it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Don't want to pay? Take our readership survey and get a month free. Bob Elliott, chief investment officer of Unlimited Funds, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the Federal Reserve, inflation, the midterm elections, and why stocks have entered a long 'slog' for the foreseeable future. Content Highlights Investors have been conditioned for recessions to feature a fast decline in equity markets followed by a rapid recovery. This time around those dynamics are different (3:44); There is no chance of a 'Fed pivot' coming anytime soon (7:58); What about infighting at the Fed and within the FOMC? (11:03); Yes, you need unemployment to increase for there to be any progress with inflation. Higher prices are no longer due to supply chain issues (13:57); The Fed will raise either 50bps or 75bps at its next meeting and rates could easily go up to 6% (21:22); Background on the guest and his ETF, the Unlimited HFND Multi Strategy Return Tracker ETF. Stock ticker: HFND (26:19); The growing disconnect between hedge fund positioning and retail investors: Hedge funds are short bonds, long commodities, bullish gold, and are sitting on a bunch of cash... (36:21); The Fed's target rate for inflation is 2%, but that could change. That would bring a myriad of issues... (38:24); It's hard to get bullish about longterm bonds: right now and for the foreseeable future (40:54); Investors continue to look for reasons that the economy is slowing and the Fed needs to reverse course. There is virtually no evidence of this happening (42:44); The midterm elections are likely to lead to a split government. This brings tail risks that few people are talking about (44:50). More Information on Bob Elliott Website: UnlimitedFunds.com; Twitter: @BobEUnlimited; 

A ‘highlight clip‘ of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 24, with the full episode released the following day -- without ads or announcements. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Jason Shapiro joins the podcast to discuss his trading strategy, based on the simple premise that most investors are wrong most of the time. This approach requires trades to be crowded, which is decidedly (and surprisingly) not the case right now -- with two possible exceptions. Content Highlights Most traders lose money. Shapiro seeks to capture these losses by going against the crowd (3:11); He does this by monitoring the Commitment of Traders report for extreme positioning, which he then fades (4:03); The thinking behind this? The crowd is wrong. "It's really that simple." The discounting method is not price but positioning (6:11); Shapiro monitors 37 different futures markets. Two examples of where this approach worked in the past (7:03); Right now "I'm seeing some pretty scary stuff, because you don't have anybody crowded" in major asset classes (8:24); One possible exception: lumber (11:08); Background on the guest (16:35); Patience is a virtue, especially for contrarians (27:28); "I have contrarian views on everything...that's how I develop my opinion." People are wrong because they want others to guide them (31:00); The set-up in cryptos is "massively dangerous" based on positioning in Bitcoin futures. This sets Bitcoin and cryptos up for a major drop... (36:36). (On this last point, Shapiro shared the following chart) For More About Jason Shapiro Website: CrowdedMarketReport.com; Twitter: @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt; LinkedIn: CMR-Publishing.

A ‘highlight clip‘ of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 17 -- one business day after it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Kris Sidial of The Ambrus Group joins the podcast to discuss tail-risk hedging: how it works, why it's important, and how investors can still take advantage of volatility mispricings to protect themselves against further downside -- at least in stocks. Content Highlights What is tail risk hedging? (3:19); Traditional hedges haven't worked, starting with the 60:40 approach. How might investors hedge stock and bond exposure? (6:15); There are numerous options for investors to protect against downturns. But it's not always as easy as buying put contracts on indexes (8:24); Variance swaps, one way to compound returns on movements in volatility (10:25); Thoughts on UK pensions and what might have caused issues in that segment of the market (15:27); What investors are doing in this environment in terms of tail-risk hedging -- there are still opportunities to hedge (20:02); Background on the guest (30:08); Discussion of systemic risk as a result of the layers of options trades and counterparties: "There is a systemic hazard taking place right now in the derivatives market" (39:32); Speaking of risk, what about the regulatory environment? Are regulators asleep at the switch? Reasons to believe Dodd-Frank is perhaps not as effective as people think.. (43:37) Thoughts on cryptocurrencies (50:01). More About Kris Sidial Website: Ambrus.Capital; Twitter: @KSidiii;; White paper mentioned in the episode.

A 'highlight clip' of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 10. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Fabian Wintersberger joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, inflation, and Fed policy. Content Highlights The Fed will not succeed at bringing inflation down to 2%. There will be no soft-landing for the economy (2:48); Interest rate hikes will proceed until something breaks in the real economy, forcing the Fed to reverse course (5:04); Bond yields: We haven't seen the highs yet (8:16); Background on the guest (14:10); The situation in Europe. Central banks have no choice but to follow the Fed higher (16:38); The situation in Wintersberger's native Austria, which faces an unprecedented winter with dramatically higher energy costs (18:55); Austria has historical ties to Russia, including in its banking sector, where one institution still has business in the country... (23:27). More on the Guest Twitter: @f_wintersberger; Substack: The Weekly Wintersberger.

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey -- Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. Todd Sullivan of ValuePlays.com rejoins the podcast to discuss oil markets and the investment case for cannabis. Sullivan's call for $100 oil last year turned out to be prescient. Oil prices have retreated from their peak, but that will be short-lived, he says... (This episode was recorded Sept. 22, before the recent rebound in oil prices. Premium subscribers get an early actionable highlight clip of the podcast along with earlier release of the full episode -- and a host of other benefits. More on our Substack or Supercast.) Content Highlights Fears of 'demand destruction' have led to the decline in oil prices, but risks are tilted toward prices moving higher again. Production is not coming back (3:48); How much of a concern is a slowing Chinese economy when it comes to oil prices? (10:14); What about stocks? Sullivan continues to like pipeline companies... (16:00); The investment case for cannabis: Overview (27:03); The only thing that will unleash capital on the cannabis industry is decriminalization (31:46); What to look for if you are looking to buy and hold cannabis stocks and two of the guest's favorites (34:30). More About Todd Sullivan Website: ValuePlays.com; Twitter: @ToddSullivan; Covey portfolio.