The Contrarian Investor Podcast China Reopening: Underestimating the Impact on Global Economy, Markets With Mike Edwards
Jan 24, 2023
01:03:42
This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 18, 2023, with a short clip of actionable highlights distributed to premium subscribers the following day. The full podcast episode followed a day after that. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits, visit our Supercast or Substack and sign up!
Mike Edwards, deputy chief investment officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to discuss China's post-Covid reopening and why its impact on global markets is not being fully priced in by investors.
Content Highlights- China's abrupt U-turn over 'Zero Covid' is unquestionably one of the biggest changes to take effect in the global economy over the last few months (2:23);
- There have been reservations about this reopening, but it is happening with authoritative force and will have a major positive impact (5:08);
- What about the US de-coupling from China and the embattled real estate sector? (11:00)
- Where this will be felt most is in markets that have exposure to the Chinese consumer. It also points to Europe and emerging markets outperforming the US (17:54);
- Chinese consumers were far more restrained than their US counterparts during Covid and have been slower to return -- especially tourists. This is not just a one-off in terms of the resurgence of Chinese travel and services (24:20);
- What to make of the latest economic developments in the US, especially with the consumer? (27:31);
- Weiss's house view is that the US will avoid recession this year (34:02);
- Background on the guest (37:49);
- China can re-emerge without the US as a major partner (51:36);
- After some consolidation, the US economic and market cycle is marked by investors seeking to put money to work -- slowly (57:18).
- Website: GWeiss.com;
- Twitter: @MEdwards_Weiss.