Know More. Risk Better.

In this discussion, Peter Simon, co-head of U.S. Financials at CreditSights, and Meghan Neenan, head of North American non-bank financials at Fitch Ratings, delve into recent ‘cockroach risks’ in U.S. capital markets. They explain how credit quality for regional banks remains stable despite recent bankruptcies, and highlight minimal BDC exposure to distressed companies. The pair also explores liquidity risks from interconnectedness between banks and non-bank lenders, and the impact of falling rates on BDC dividends, all while emphasizing the strength of capital cushions.

Season 9, Episode 15 This week "Know More. Risk Better." offers a comprehensive macro outlook for 2026, examining how private sector adaptation and fiscal stimulus helped mitigate 2025's tariff shocks while exploring key takeaways from recent IMF meetings - including cautious relief on trade impacts, excitement about AI-driven capex, and concerns about equity valuations and labor market weakness. The discussion navigates critical tensions facing policymakers, particularly the Fed's challenge balancing conflicting inflation and employment signals, debates over tariff pass-through to consumer prices, and questions about AI investment sustainability amid uncertain returns. The panel analyzes market-macro disconnects as equities rally despite mounting headwinds, assesses German fiscal expansion's potential boost to European growth, and highlights China's structural vulnerabilities beneath headline GDP figures, including collapsing fixed asset investment and persistent deflation. The episode concludes with contrarian takes for 2026: potential dollar strength despite bearish consensus, heightened China macro risks, and fundamentals returning to credit markets after a technically-driven year, providing essential perspective for navigating policy uncertainty and evolving global risks.

Season 9, Episode 14  This week “Know More. Risk Better.” offers a focused analysis on the SEC’s potential shift from quarterly to semiannual reporting, highlighting legal, covenant, and credit market impacts as the change is considered for US issuers. The panel begins with an overview of the SEC rulemaking process and regulatory drivers, then explores practical and legal challenges, such as disclosure consistency, litigation risks, and the continued role of anti-fraud obligations. Covenant experts review implications for bond and loan agreements, noting that most public company covenants defer to SEC requirements, while sponsor and private deals often maintain stricter quarterly reporting regardless of regulatory changes.   The discussion also examines market dynamics, including investor pressure for timely updates, impacts on spreads and volatility, and possible changes in management communication strategies. The team assesses how reduced reporting frequency may influence market structure, sell-side research, liquidity, and ETF rebalancing, emphasizing the importance of best practices for consistent material event disclosures. Panelists conclude that while the rule change may require a gradual adjustment period, actual market impacts will depend on issuer fundamentals, covenant language, and evolving investor expectations. 

Season 9, Episode 13 This week on “Know More. Risk Better.” Zachary Griffiths sits down with Hunter Martin and Kerry Kantin to break down the largest LBO on record: EA’s $55 billion take-private deal. The team unpacks the investor consortium behind the transaction, led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, explores why the equity check is unusually large, and analyzes the implications for EA’s balance sheet, leverage, and outstanding bonds.  They discuss deal timing, with early 2026 targeted for closing, and regulatory hurdles including antitrust and national security reviews. The conversation expands to current market conditions, expectations for future LBO activity, and the impact of elevated rates and AI-driven growth on deal making. Listen for clear takeaways on base case scenarios, market probabilities, and positioning around legal and macro catalysts that could influence spreads and sector performance. 

Season 9, Episode 12 This extended episode provides a comprehensive outlook across US, Euro, EM, and APAC credit markets as we head into 4Q25 and 2026. In US Credit Markets, the team sets an updated macro outlook and credit strategy, flags key trends shaping sovereign and corporate credit, and identifies the risk factors and market catalysts to watch. In Euro Credit Markets, they review sovereign and credit fundamentals, assess sector developments and potential issuer themes, and discuss the implications of policy and macro shifts across the region. For Emerging Market Sovereigns, they share the latest perspectives on EM credit risk and performance, highlight regional and country-specific views, and outline approaches to navigating volatility in global EM credit. In APAC Credit Markets, they examine risk factors and market catalysts, provide the latest read on APAC EM credit risk and performance, and review sovereign and corporate credit fundamentals across the region.

Special Edition Podcast Mini Series: 25 for 25: E5 In the finale of our 25 for 25 series, Winnie Cisar and Zachary Griffiths host CreditSights Co-Heads Erin Lyons and Matt Zloto to explore the future of credit research. They discuss AI’s role in improving efficiency and expanding coverage, the rise of private credit and related regulatory implications, and why people-powered insights and skeptical analysis still matter - plus how CreditSights is investing in talent and purpose-built tools to cut through noise and deliver actionable ideas.

Special Edition Podcast Mini Series: 25 for 25: E4 Winnie Cisar and Zachary Griffiths host a special 25th anniversary roundtable with Tony Canale, Luke Millar, Andrew Maier, and Beau Kuhn exploring how collaboration across the CreditSights and wider Fitch family creates investor advantage. They break down how news flow from LFI, covenant insights from Covenant Review, fundamental analysis from CreditSights, and data standardization from Bixby combine to deliver what Beau calls "the power of three plus data and analytics." Expect candid insights on how human expertise remains the essential differentiator in an increasingly data-driven world, plus a preview of future innovations including enhanced primary transaction coverage, European BSL market expansion, and AI-powered trade idea generation that will further integrate the "technicolor picture" these complementary businesses create together.

Season 9, Episode 11 This week on “Know More. Risk Better.” Logan Miller sits down with Mariya Nurgaziyeva, CFA and Amarveer Singh to decode a mixed European consumer backdrop with real credit implications. They unpack why personal consumption is lagging other growth drivers, what a pause in ECB cuts and softening labor markets mean, and how country-specific pressures in Germany, France, and the UK are filtering into earnings and spreads. Then they tackle tariffs and input costs - who’s truly exposed (spirits and luxury), why the hit has been more manageable than feared, and how mitigation via cost cuts, pass-throughs, and near-shoring is playing out. They map commodity pressures (vegetable oils, cocoa, coffee, dairy, beef, poultry), the surge in private label as volumes flag, and where pricing power still holds - like coffee. Expect clear takeaways on what’s driving consumer sentiment, base cases versus market worries, and how to position around sector and country catalysts that could move spreads—whether they widen on cost shocks or keep grinding tighter on defensives and experience-led demand.

Special Edition Podcast Mini Series: 25 for 25: E3 Host Winnie Cisar (Global Head of Strategy) is joined by Andy DeVries (Head of US Investment Grade; Head of Utilities), Eric Axon (Co-Head of High Yield; Head of Healthcare), and Mary Pollock (Head of Real Estate) to discuss the art and science of credit analysis. The conversation centers on turning information into decisions by blending quantitative analysis with qualitative judgment. Andy DeVries illustrates how sector data can inform relative value views. Eric Axon emphasizes a process-first approach that starts with the numbers before incorporating management behavior and industry context. Mary Pollock underscores the importance of governance, incentives, and disclosure - using company materials and past actions to test narratives - and how real-world inflection points refine instincts over time. The team also share approaches for developing junior talent, filtering noise during busy news cycles, gauging consensus, and recognizing potential turning points - balancing art and science to produce clear, actionable credit recommendations.

Season 9, Episode 10 This week on “Know More. Risk Better.” Winnie Cisar sits down with Mark Lightner to decode a whirlwind legal backdrop with real market stakes. They break down the Lisa Cook case - what a last-minute appellate decision could mean for Fed independence, who’s in the room for the next rate call, and how today’s legal signals shape the FOMC’s 2026 lineup. Then they tackle the Supreme Court’s fast-track review of IEEPA tariffs - what the justices will decide, why non-delegation matters, and how a reversal could ripple through refunds, trade deals, and positioning. Finally, they map the broader playbook of government intervention - from agency pressure and funding leverage to DOJ lawsuits - and how it’s hitting sectors differently. Expect clear takeaways on timelines, base cases versus market expectations, and how to position around legal catalysts that could move spreads - whether they break wider or keep grinding tighter.  (Please note, this podcast was recorded on Monday, September 15 at 4.30pm EDT)