Know More. Risk Better.

Season 9, Episode 22 This week on "Know More. Risk Better." features host Winnie Cisar along with Mark Lightner, for a comprehensive review of the 2026 Special Situations Outlook. The conversation examines the liability management transaction landscape, highlighting how creditor-on-creditor dynamics remained largely unchanged in 2025 despite the landmark Serta decision. The team explores the emerging antitrust challenge to creditor cooperation agreements, with two recent lawsuits (Selecta and Altice USA) alleging federal antitrust violations and seeking treble damages. Lightner discusses why this represents "the most important issue going into 2026" and how it could fundamentally alter the collaborative approach to restructurings. The discussion also covers the high-stakes Monsanto litigation heading to the Supreme Court, which could determine whether the $40 billion debt company faces bankruptcy over Roundup-related claims.

Season 9, Episode 21 This week on "Know More. Risk Better." features host Zachary Griffiths along with Andy DeVries, for a data center deep dive following the Edison Electric Institute investor conference. The conversation examines the supply-demand disconnect in data center capacity, with utilities committing to approximately 100 gigawatts of new capacity by 2030 against third-party estimates indicating only 50 gigawatts of actual demand. The team explores the rate payer protections utilities are implementing to mitigate overbuild risk, counterparty concerns when data centers move off balance sheet into special purpose vehicles, and credit quality implications across the sector. DeVries also discusses why independent power producers like Vistra may be better positioned than traditional utilities, and the potential for political intervention in capacity markets as electricity bills become a midterm election issue.

Zach Griffiths is U.S. Head of Macro and Investment Grade Strategy at CreditSights, bringing insights on U.S. GDP slowdown and Fed rate cuts. Logan Miller, Head of Euro Strategy, discusses the ECB's cautious stance and the impact of Germany's fiscal stimulus. Regis Châtelier, specializing in emerging markets, highlights strong fundamentals and growth potential in EM. The panel delves into credit market risks, the influence of AI on issuance, and concludes with actionable scenarios for investors looking to navigate the shifting landscape into 2026.

In this engaging discussion, Peter Simon, Co-head of U.S. Financials, provides insights on consumer credit trends and rising repossession rates. Todd Duvick, Head of Autos, explores vehicle pricing and the impact of tariffs on affordability. Jory Eisenberg, a Special Situations analyst, delves into the used-car market and financing challenges. Together, they tackle the implications of 2022 vintage loans, the operational contrast between Carvana and CarMax, and the current stability in the auto sector, concluding that systemic risk remains unlikely.

Luke Millar, a leveraged finance specialist and global editor at LFI, shares key insights on the European leveraged finance landscape. He discusses the impact of record refinancing volumes, sector performance like strong energy and resilient autos, and the rise of dividend recap transactions amid muted LBO activity. The conversation also covers widening CCC spreads, CLO demand dynamics, and the role of private credit as an alternative capital source. Luke provides a strategic outlook for the market, highlighting potential challenges and opportunities ahead.

Barry Eichengreen, a noted economic historian from UC Berkeley, and Cedric Chehab, chief economist at BMI, explore the relationships between the Roaring Twenties, the Great Depression, and today's economy. They discuss how new technologies like AI could impact productivity, the dangers of fiscal dominance, and the role of political polarization. The speakers also warn about risks in the non-bank financial system, analyze the historical failures of the gold standard, and consider the future of the US dollar amidst global challenges.

In this discussion, Peter Simon, co-head of U.S. Financials at CreditSights, and Meghan Neenan, head of North American non-bank financials at Fitch Ratings, delve into recent ‘cockroach risks’ in U.S. capital markets. They explain how credit quality for regional banks remains stable despite recent bankruptcies, and highlight minimal BDC exposure to distressed companies. The pair also explores liquidity risks from interconnectedness between banks and non-bank lenders, and the impact of falling rates on BDC dividends, all while emphasizing the strength of capital cushions.

Brian Colton, Chief Economist at Fitch Ratings, and Cedric Chayab, Chief Economist at BMI, dive into a macro outlook for 2026. They discuss how fiscal and monetary stimuli helped buffer tariff shocks from 2025. The duo reflects on IMF insights, including the excitement surrounding AI-driven investments, and concerns about equity bubbles. They also analyze China’s economic vulnerabilities and a potential strong dollar. The conversation highlights critical tensions for the Fed regarding inflation and labor, and what these factors mean for the global economic landscape.

Season 9, Episode 14  This week “Know More. Risk Better.” offers a focused analysis on the SEC’s potential shift from quarterly to semiannual reporting, highlighting legal, covenant, and credit market impacts as the change is considered for US issuers. The panel begins with an overview of the SEC rulemaking process and regulatory drivers, then explores practical and legal challenges, such as disclosure consistency, litigation risks, and the continued role of anti-fraud obligations. Covenant experts review implications for bond and loan agreements, noting that most public company covenants defer to SEC requirements, while sponsor and private deals often maintain stricter quarterly reporting regardless of regulatory changes.   The discussion also examines market dynamics, including investor pressure for timely updates, impacts on spreads and volatility, and possible changes in management communication strategies. The team assesses how reduced reporting frequency may influence market structure, sell-side research, liquidity, and ETF rebalancing, emphasizing the importance of best practices for consistent material event disclosures. Panelists conclude that while the rule change may require a gradual adjustment period, actual market impacts will depend on issuer fundamentals, covenant language, and evolving investor expectations. 

Season 9, Episode 13 This week on “Know More. Risk Better.” Zachary Griffiths sits down with Hunter Martin and Kerry Kantin to break down the largest LBO on record: EA’s $55 billion take-private deal. The team unpacks the investor consortium behind the transaction, led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, explores why the equity check is unusually large, and analyzes the implications for EA’s balance sheet, leverage, and outstanding bonds.  They discuss deal timing, with early 2026 targeted for closing, and regulatory hurdles including antitrust and national security reviews. The conversation expands to current market conditions, expectations for future LBO activity, and the impact of elevated rates and AI-driven growth on deal making. Listen for clear takeaways on base case scenarios, market probabilities, and positioning around legal and macro catalysts that could influence spreads and sector performance.