Know More. Risk Better. Hot Takes & Cold Data: The 2026 Economic Bingo Card
Oct 24, 2025
Brian Colton, Chief Economist at Fitch Ratings, and Cedric Chayab, Chief Economist at BMI, dive into a macro outlook for 2026. They discuss how fiscal and monetary stimuli helped buffer tariff shocks from 2025. The duo reflects on IMF insights, including the excitement surrounding AI-driven investments, and concerns about equity bubbles. They also analyze China’s economic vulnerabilities and a potential strong dollar. The conversation highlights critical tensions for the Fed regarding inflation and labor, and what these factors mean for the global economic landscape.
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Private Sector Blunted Tariff Shock
- Private sector actors front‑loaded exports, reclassified goods, and delayed price changes to blunt tariff shocks.
- Those responses changed timing and reduced near‑term pass‑through to inflation, altering forecast dynamics.
Policy Stimulus Created A 2026 Overhang
- Large fiscal and monetary stimulus in 2025 acted as shock absorbers for many economies.
- That support creates carry‑through effects that should influence growth and inflation into 2026.
IMF: Relief Plus New Risks
- IMF attendees felt relief that tariff shocks were less damaging than feared and expressed excitement about AI‑driven capex.
- They also warned of equity valuation bubbles and a weakening US jobs picture.
