Hot Takes & Cold Data: The 2026 Economic Bingo Card

Season 9, Episode 15

This week "Know More. Risk Better." offers a comprehensive macro outlook for 2026, examining how private sector adaptation and fiscal stimulus helped mitigate 2025's tariff shocks while exploring key takeaways from recent IMF meetings - including cautious relief on trade impacts, excitement about AI-driven capex, and concerns about equity valuations and labor market weakness. The discussion navigates critical tensions facing policymakers, particularly the Fed's challenge balancing conflicting inflation and employment signals, debates over tariff pass-through to consumer prices, and questions about AI investment sustainability amid uncertain returns.

The panel analyzes market-macro disconnects as equities rally despite mounting headwinds, assesses German fiscal expansion's potential boost to European growth, and highlights China's structural vulnerabilities beneath headline GDP figures, including collapsing fixed asset investment and persistent deflation. The episode concludes with contrarian takes for 2026: potential dollar strength despite bearish consensus, heightened China macro risks, and fundamentals returning to credit markets after a technically-driven year, providing essential perspective for navigating policy uncertainty and evolving global risks.