Europe Inside Out

The Black Sea is geopolitically significant as both a theater of trade and a theater of war. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shifted the traditional balance between Moscow and Ankara in the region and has led to an increased NATO presence there. Can the EU leverage its economic and foreign policy tools to expand its influence in the Black Sea?Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe, and Dimitar Bechev, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, discuss why the Black Sea is once again at the center of world events and what the future holds for the region.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:50] The Black Sea Today, [00:07:45] The Russian-Turkish Cohabitation [00.17.58] What Future for the Black Sea Region.Neal Ascherson, "Black Sea," Hill and Wang, Cambridge University Press, 1995Dimitar Bechev, February 28, 2023, “Sailing Through the Storm: Türkiye’s Black Sea Strategy Amidst the Russian-Ukrainian War,” European Union Institute for Security Studies.Dimitar Bechev, February 27, 2023, “Facing tragedy, Turkey mends ties with Greece and Armenia,” Al Jazeera.Dimitar Bechev, April 13, 2022, “Russia, Turkey and the Spectre of Regional Instability,” Al Sharq Strategic Research.Dimitar Bechev, March 30, 2022, “Turkey’s Response to the War in Ukraine,” Maple Institute.Thomas de Waal, July 07, 2022, “How Georgia Stumbled on the Road to Europe,” Foreign Policy.Thomas de Waal, June 09, 2022, “Georgia, Europe’s Problem Child,” Carnegie Europe.Thomas de Waal, May 10, 2022, “A Fragile Stability in Moldova,” Carnegie Europe.Thomas de Waal, March 03, 2022, “Darkness Looms Over Ukraine’s Neighborhood,” Carnegie Europe.Charles King, "The Black Sea: A History," Oxford University Press, 2005.

Iranians are revolting against a regime built on the systematic oppression of women, marginalized groups, and civil society. Against this background, as well as Tehran’s ties with authoritarian powers and the risk of escalating the nuclear file, the EU must reorient its approach by placing human rights and security at the center of its policy. Only then can it play a greater role in ensuring a brighter future for all Iranians and securing nuclear non-proliferation.Cornelius Adebahr, a nonresident fellow at Carnegie Europe, and Barbara Mittelhammer, a political analyst and consultant, discuss how the feminist nature of the protests can transform the country and lead to a re-think of the EU’s relations with Tehran.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:46] Iran in Present Day, [00:10:06] 30 years of EU Engagement with Iran, [00:15:38] A New Approach Toward Iran.Cornelius Adebahr and Barbara Mittelhammer, March 31, 2023, “Half a year of feminist revolt in Iran,” Delegation of Die LINKE in the European Parliament.Cornelius Adebahr and Barbara Mittelhammer, December 5, 2022, “Sketching a Feminist EU Response to the Revolt in Iran,” Carnegie Europe.Cornelius Adebahr, January 17, 2023, “Europe Needs a New Iran Strategy,” Carnegie Europe.Cornelius Adebahr, September 8, 2021, “Looking Beyond Iran to the Persian Gulf,” German Council on Foreign Relations. Cornelius Adebahr and Olivia Lazard, July 7, 2023, “How the EU Can Help Iran Tackle Water Scarcity,”, Carnegie Europe.Cornelius Adebahr, October 11, 2022, “Can Protests in Iran Topple the Regime?,” Carnegie Europe.Cornelius Adebahr et al., January 20, 2022, “How the Transatlantic Relationship Has Evolved, One Year Into the Biden Administration,” Carnegie Europe. Cornelius Adebahr and Barbara Mittelhammer, January 2, 2023, “’Women, Life, Freedom’: A German feminist foreign policy towards Iran,” Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung.Cornelius Adebahr, March 21, 2023, “What Germany’s turning point means for its feminist foreign policy,” Politico.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Zeitenwende speech in February 2022 laid the groundwork for a transformation of Germany’s foreign and security policy. One year in, how much has Berlin’s positioning on Russia, energy, and defense changed?  Judy Dempsey, a nonresident senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, and Sophia Besch, a fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, sit down to unpack Germany’s traditional approach toward the military, current security and defense policies, and future relations with the United States, Russia, and China.  [00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:45] Present State of German Defense, [00:12:29] German Defense Prior to 2022, [00:23:02] German Security Relations in the FutureSophia Besch, December 21, 2022, “EU Defense and the War in Ukraine”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  Judy Dempsey, January 10, 2023, “Germany Must Move Past the Crossroads,” Carnegie Europe.  Sophia Besch and Sarah Brockmeier, March 9, 2022, “Waking a Sleeping Giant: What’s Next for German Security Policy,” War on the Rocks.Sophia Besch, January 2023, “To really modernize its armed forces, Germany needs a long-term increase of its defence budget,” 49Security.  Sophia Besch and Liana Fix, November 21, 2022, “Don’t let Zeitenwende get derailed,” War on the Rocks.Sophia Besch, “Ukraine’s Silver Tank? | The World Unpacked,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  Judy Dempsey, January 24, 2023, “Europe Waits for German Leadership,” Carnegie Europe.  Judy Dempsey, January 26, 2023, “Scholz’s Tank Decision Upends Germany’s Long Affair with Russia,” Carnegie Europe.

Nearly a decade has passed since Russia initiated its invasion of Ukraine. This tumultuous period has left a profound mark on Ukrainian society and cultivated a culture of resilience.Gwendolyn Sasse, a nonresident senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, and Yuliya Bidenko, an associate professor of political science at Karazin Kharkiv National University, discuss Ukraine’s recent history, the perseverance of its people, and its hopes for the future.Yuliya Bidenko, “How Ukraine Was Underestimated: Decentralization, EU Integration and Digitalization.” ZOiS Lecture Series in cooperation with Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, July 14, 2022.Yuliya Bidenko, “(De)Structuring of the Civil Society in the Political Process in Ukraine and Belarus,” in The Nonprofit Sector in Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia: Civil Society Advances and Challenges, ed. D.H. Smith, A.V. Moldavanova, and S. Krasynska, (Leiden, Netherlands, and Boston, MA: Brill Publishers, 2018). Gwendolyn Sasse and Alice Lackner, “War and State-Making in Ukraine: Forging a Civic Identity from Below?,”Ideology and Politics 1, no. 12, 2019.Gwendolyn Sasse, “Public Perceptions in Flux: Identities, War, and Transnational Linkages in Ukraine,” June 12, 2018, ZOiS.“What Ukrainians Think About Ukraine’s Movement Towards EU Membership – Survey,” last modified January 10, 2023, New Europe Center.“Social Screening of Ukrainian Society During the Russian Invasion,” last modified October 7, 2022, Gradus.“Results-2022: Under the blue-yellow flag of freedom!,” last modified January 5, 2023, Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation.Sergiy Solodkyy and Gwendolyn Sasse. “The Link Between Decentralization and EU Integration,” New Europe Center and Centre for East European and International Studies.Rosa Balfour and Thomas de Waal, “How Russia Shattered Europe’s Post-Cold War Illusions,” September 14, 2022, Carnegie Europe.Gwendolyn Sasse, “The Risks of Negotiating an End to the War in Ukraine,” December 6, 2022, Carnegie Europe.Gwendolyn Sasse, “Der Krieg Gegen Die Ukraine” (Munich, Germany: C.H. Beck) 2022.

Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections later this year, the results of which will have significant repercussions for the country’s economic and foreign policies.  Sinan Ülgen and Marc Pierini, senior fellows at Carnegie Europe, analyze the current state of affairs in Turkey and lay out the implications of new leadership in Ankara for Europe and the world.Marc Pierini (November 17, 2022), Understanding Turkey’s Geostrategic Posture, Carnegie Europe.Marc Pierini and Sinan Ülgen (May 19, 2022), Two Turkey Experts on Why Erdoğan Is Rejecting NATO Expansion, Carnegie Europe.Marc Pierini, (August 30, 2022), Understanding the Erdoğan-Putin Duet, Carnegie Europe.Alper Coşkun and Sinan Ülgen (November 14, 2022), Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The transatlantic relationship showcased remarkable unity in 2022, but fissures between the United States and the European Union are appearing with regard to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, economic policy, and China.Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe, is joined by Dan Baer, senior vice president for policy research and director at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to discuss how both sides of the Atlantic can strengthen this indispensable partnership.Rosa Balfour and Dan Baer (January 20, 2022), How the Transatlantic Relationship Has Evolved, One Year Into the Biden Administration, Carnegie Europe.Gwendolyn Sasse (December 6, 2022), The Risks of Negotiating an End to the War in Ukraine, Carnegie Europe.Rosa Balfour, ed. (January 26, 2021), Working with the Biden Administration: Opportunities for the EU, Carnegie Europe.Rosa Balfour (December 1, 2022), Transatlantic Woes: Neither Side Can Have It All, Carnegie Europe.Stefan Meister (November 29, 2022), A Paradigm Shift: EU-Russia Relations After the War in Ukraine, Carnegie Europe.Rosa Balfour, Lizza Bomassi, and Marta Martinelli, eds. (June 29, 2022), The Southern Mirror: Reflections on Europe From the Global South, Carnegie Europe.

Extreme polarization, populism, and political violence are plaguing American democracy, while fragmentation and governance issues are challenging Europe’s. Such political turbulence not only raises questions about the health of democracy at home but also about how democracy support is coordinated abroad. Richard Youngs and Rachel Kleinfeld, senior fellows in Carnegie’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance program, analyze the state of democracy on both sides of the Atlantic and discuss ways to protect democracy around the world. Jennifer McCoy and Benjamin Press (May 5, 2022). Reducing Pernicious Polarization: A Comparative Historical Analysis of Depolarization. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Richard Youngs (October 7, 2021), Rebuilding European Democracy: Resistance and Renewal in an Illiberal Age. Bloomsbury Publishing.Richard Youngs and Ken Godfrey (November 3, 2022), Democratic Innovations From Around the World: Lessons for the West. Carnegie Europe.Rachel Kleinfeld (2022), A Helsinki Moment for a New Democracy Strategy. Democracy: A Journal of Ideas.Richard Youngs et al., (June 14, 2022), Supporting Democracy After the Invasion of Ukraine. Carnegie Europe.Richard Youngs (July 20, 2022), Autocracy Versus Democracy After the Ukraine Invasion: Mapping a Middle Way. Carnegie Europe.Richard Youngs (September 27, 2022), A Democratic Roadmap for Ukraine. Forum 2000.Judy Dempsey (November 8, 2022), Europeans Must Prepare for the Post-Biden Era. Carnegie Europe.

Russia’s war on Ukraine has spotlighted the interconnectedness of foreign and security policy, energy, and the environment. A deeper appreciation of the geopolitics of climate will shape not only EU-U.S. relations–as reflected in the recently unveiled Inflation Reduction Act in the United States and the Critical Materials Act in the EU–but also global affairs and events, including COP27.Olivia Lazard, a fellow at Carnegie Europe, is joined by Noah Gordon, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to discuss the transatlantic approach to climate change, current blind spots in the race to net-zero, as well as their visions for the future. Olivia Lazard (June 30, 2022), The Blind Spots of the Green Energy Transition. TED.Olivia Lazard and Richard Youngs (July 12, 2021), The EU and Climate Security: Toward Ecological Diplomacy. Carnegie Europe.Noah Gordon (July 28, 2022), Carbon Pricing Isn’t Enough to Mitigate Climate Change. Foreign Policy.Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, (April 17, 2019). A Message From the Future with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The Intercept.Dr. Paul Griffin, (July 2017). The Carbon Majors Database: CDP Carbon Majors Report 2017. CDP.Will MacAskill (August 2022). What We Owe the Future. Basic Books.Helena Horton (July 28, 2022). Climate breakdown made UK heatwave 10 times more likely, study finds. The Guardian.Adam Tooze, (July 24, 2022). Chartbook #130 Defining Polycrisis – From Crisis Pictures to the Crisis Matrix.Arianna Skibell, (September 23, 2022). Malpass Joins ‘I’m Not a Scientist’ Hall of Fame. Politico.George Monbiot (August 2022). Regenesis: Feeding the World without Devouring the Planet. Penguin Books.World Weather Attribution, (July 28, 2022). Without human-caused climate change temperatures of 40°C in the UK would have been extremely unlikely.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has transformed Europe’s relations with Moscow and with Eastern Europe, as exemplified by the EU’s energy diversification and transformation of its foreign and security policies. The war has also laid bare Europe’s flaws, including its assumptions about the transition to liberal democracy following the Cold War and delusions about Putin’s worldviews. Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe, is joined by Thomas de Waal to unpack the current state of play, lessons to be learned from the past, and the future of relations between Brussels, Moscow, and Kyiv. A senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and an expert in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region, Tom was formerly a journalist with the BBC, the Economist, and the Moscow Times.Rosa Balfour (March 8, 2022). What Russia’s War in Ukraine Means for Europe. Carnegie Europe .Serhii Plokhy (2015). The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine. Basic Books. Thomas Carothers. (January 2022). The End of the Transition Paradigm. Journal of Democracy. Shane Harris, Karen DeYoung, Isabelle Khurshudyan, Ashley Parker and Liz Sly (August 16, 2022). Road to War: U.S. Struggled to Convince Allies, and Zelensky, of Risk of Invasion. The Washington Post. Gwendolyn Sasse (September 13, 2022). Russia’s War in Ukraine: A Turning Point? Carnegie Europe