Ahead of June’s European Parliament elections, radical right parties are gaining ground across the continent.Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe, and Stefan Lehne, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, unpack the causes of this trend and reflect on how it could shape the EU’s political future.Carnegie Europe is grateful to the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland for their support of this work.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:28] Why the Rise of the Radical Right Matters, [00:11:18] Why the Radical Right Is on the Rise, [00:19:46] How the Radical Right Can Be Contained.Rosa Balfour, September 12, 2023, “Ursula von der Leyen’s Three Tiers of Challenges,” Carnegie Europe.Rosa Balfour, February 9, 2023, “The EU Must Reconcile Geopolitics and Democracy,” Carnegie Europe.Rosa Balfour, September 29, 2022, “How a Far-Right Victory in Italy Might Ripple Through the EU,” Carnegie Europe.Rosa Balfour, September 20, 2022, “A Meloni-led government need not spell disaster for Italy’s institutions,” Financial Times.Rosa Balfour, March 1, 2022, “Russia through the European prism: populism, politics, and the Russian war on Ukraine,” Encompass Europe.Rosa Balfour et al., 2016. “Europe’s Troublemakers – The populist challenge to foreign policy,” European Policy Centre.Stefan Lehne et al., January 18, 2024, “Judy Asks: Can the Far Right in Europe Be Contained?”, Carnegie Europe.Stefan Lehne, October 18, 2022, “The EU and the Creative and Destructive Impact of Crises,” Carnegie Europe.Stefan Lehne, February 8, 2022, “Europe is Struggling, Thirty Years After the Maastricht Treaty,” Carnegie Europe.Stefan Lehne, October 15, 2019, “Could an Illiberal Europe Work?”, Institute for Human Sciences.

Turkey’s 2023 was marked by the reelection of President Erdoğan and by a reorientation of the country’s economic policy—while old disagreements with the West over Ankara’s close relationship with Moscow and poor rule-of-law record persisted.Marc Pierini and Sinan Ülgen, senior fellows at Carnegie Europe, discuss Turkey’s political and economic landscape ahead of the 2024 municipal elections and what the future holds for the country’s relations with Brussels and Washington.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:46] The Upcoming Local Elections in Turkey, [00:08:17] The Headlines From Turkey in 2023, [00:19:21] The Future of Turkey-EU Relations in 2024.Marc Pierini and Francesco Siccardi, October 24, 2023, “Turkey at 100,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Marc Pierini, September 18, 2023, “Turkey’s European Goals: Prospects and Impediments as Seen From Brussels,” Carnegie Europe.Marc Pierini et. al, July 24, 2023, “What does Erdoğan’s new term in office mean for EU-Turkey relations?,” Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) Network.Marc Pierini, 2023, “Turkey’s Geopolitical Role. Between National Ambitions, Western Anchors and Russian Sway,” European Institute of the Mediterranean.Marc Pierini, Alper Coşkun, Francesco Siccardi, June 14, 2023, “What to Expect From Erdoğan’s New Term,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Marc Pierini, May 19, 2023, “Turkey has to reassess its position between NATO and a disruptive Russia,” Le Monde.Sinan Ülgen, November 20, 2023, “Europe needs a new framework for Turkey,” Financial Times.Sinan Ülgen, Alper Coşkun, November 7, 2023, “A Reflection on Türkiye’s Centennial,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Sinan Ülgen et. al, October 13, 2023, “Arab Perspectives on the Middle East Crisis,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has given EU enlargement new impetus, but obstacles to the Western Balkan countries’ integration persist.Dimitar Bechev, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, and Oana Popescu-Zamfir, director of the Bucharest-based think tank GlobalFocus Center, discuss the domestic dynamics in the region and how Brussels can encourage democratic reform.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:41] Where the Western Balkans Stand on the Road to the EU, [00:11:20] Obstacles to EU Enlargement, [00:18:35] Prospects for Western Balkan Countries’ EU Accession.Dimitar Bechev, January 11, 2024, “Serbia’s Authoritarian (Re)turn,” Carnegie Europe.Dimitar Bechev, December 5, 2023, “There Are No Quick Fixes for EU Enlargement,” Carnegie Europe.Dimitar Bechev, September 28, 2023, “The EU Cannot Give Up on Serbia and Kosovo,” Carnegie Europe.Dimitar Bechev, June 20, 2022, “What Has Stopped EU Enlargement in the Western Balkans?,” Carnegie Europe.Oana Popescu-Zamfir, Nikola Dimitrov, et al., June 2, 2023, “It’s a Package Deal! Reforming and Enlarging the European Union in a Contested World,” Institute for Human Sciences.Oana Popescu-Zamfir, Rosa Balfour, et al., June 22, 2022, “What is to be done? The war, the Western Balkans and the EU,” Institute for Human Sciences.Oana Popescu-Zamfir and Zoran Nechev, May 3, 2022, “Time to Recognize Ukraine as European and Shake Up the EU Enlargement Process,” DGAP.

The Israel-Hamas war has exposed Europe’s declining diplomatic clout in the Middle East, where Arab countries and the United States are taking the lead to find durable solutions for the region’s peace and security.Pierre Vimont, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, and Amr Hamzawy, senior fellow and director of the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, take stock of Europe’s role in this troubled region and discuss the EU’s potential room for maneuver in the conflict.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:02:00] The EU and the Israel-Hamas War, [00:09:54] Rebooting the Peace Process [00:16:44] A New Role for the EU?Amr Hamzawy, December 6, 2023, “The Political Impact of the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Amr Hamzawy, Nathan J. Brown, November 17, 2023, “Arab Peace Initiative II: How Arab Leadership Could Design a Peace Plan in Israel and Palestine,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Amr Hamzawy, November 1, 2023, “Pay Attention to the Arab Public Response to the Israel-Hamas War,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Amr Hamzawy, Rafiah Al Talei, Nathan J. Brown, Yasmine Farouk, Mohanad Hage Ali, Zaha Hassan, Marwan Muasher, Sinan Ülgen, Maha Yahya, Sarah Yerkes, October 13, 2023, “Arab Perspectives on the Middle East Crisis,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Pierre Vimont, October 10, 2023, “Europe’s Moment of Powerlessness in the Middle East,” Carnegie Europe.

Russia’s war against Ukraine reveals much about the use of cyber in warfare and the evolving role of states, international organizations, and the private sector in securing the digital realm.Raluca Csernatoni, fellow at Carnegie Europe, and Tim Maurer, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discuss the blurring of lines between war and peace in cyberspace and what it means for the future of cyber diplomacy.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:02:04] Russia’s cyber war against Ukraine [00:11:38], The role of states, international organizations, and the private sector, [00:20:39] The future of cyber norms and diplomacyRaluca Csernatoni, November 8, 2023, “Generative AI Poses Challenges for Europe,” Carnegie Europe.Raluca Csernatoni and Mark Manantan, July 4, 2023, “EU-ASEAN Cooperation on Cybersecurity and Emerging Technologies,” Carnegie Europe.Raluca Csernatoni, January 30, 2023, “Towards Strengthening the Transatlantic Tech Diplomacy: Trustworthy AI in the EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council,” Transatlantic Leadership Network.Raluca Csernatoni and Katerina Mavrona, September 15, 2023, “The Artificial Intelligence and Cybersecurity Nexus: Taking Stock of the European Union’s Approach,” Carnegie Europe.Tim Maurer, October 22, 2023, “7 Simple Ways to Shield Yourself From Cybersecurity Threats,” Forbes.Tim Maurer, September 18, 2023, “6 Actions CEOs Must Take During a Cyberattack,” Harvard Business Review.Tim Maurer and Arthur Nelson, March 2021, “The Global Cyber Threat,” International Monetary Fund.Tim Maurer, January 2018, “Cyber Mercenaries: The State, Hackers, and Power,” Cambridge University Press.

Relations with Southeast Asia are critical to Europe’s clout in the Indo-Pacific. Investment, supply chains, visa regulations, and data protection are among the factors influencing EU-ASEAN ties.Lizza Bomassi, deputy Director of Carnegie Europe, and Elina Noor, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, assess Europe’s relations with Southeast Asia and discuss where this partnership is headed.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:14] Europe’s Relations with Southeast Asia, [00:10:50] Important Milestones [00:22:24] Where Is the Relationship Headed?Lizza Bomassi, July 4, 2023, “Reimagining EU-ASEAN Relations: Challenges and Opportunities,” Carnegie Europe.Lizza Bomassi, December 13, 2022, “A Missed Opportunity on the EU-ASEAN Summit,” Carnegie Europe.Rosa Balfour, Lizza Bomassi, Marta Martinelli, June 29, 2022, “The Southern Mirror: Reflections on Europe From the Global South,” Carnegie Europe.Lizza Bomassi, November 24, 2021, “The Asia-Europe Meeting and the Case for Minilateralism,” Carnegie Europe.Elina Noor, “ASEAN Can Shape Its Digital Order,” Lowy Institute.Elina Noor, April 2020, “Positioning ASEAN in Cyberspace”, Asia Policy, Vol. 15, No. 2.

As Ukraine continues its counter-offensive and advances democratic reforms in pursuit of EU and NATO membership, Western support for the country has never been more crucial.Judy Dempsey, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, sits down with Marie Yovanovitch, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to discuss how Europe and the United States can bring Ukraine closer to victory and when conditions for peace negotiations might be ripe.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:57] Western Support for Ukraine, [00:11:15] Ukraine’s Democratic Transition, [00:14:58] Prospects for Peace.Judy Dempsey, August 29, 2023, “The War in Ukraine is About Europe’s Future,” Carnegie Europe.Judy Dempsey, July 20, 2023, “Ukraine Has Not Transformed EU Foreign Policy,” Carnegie Europe.Judy Dempsey, July 13, 2023, “NATO Gives Ukraine No Finishing Line,” Carnegie Europe.Judy Dempsey, July 6, 2023, “Judy Asks: Is NATO Membership Realistic?”, Carnegie Europe.Judy Dempsey, April 25, 2023, “Ukraine’s Resilience is About Winning the War,” Carnegie Europe.Marie Yovanovitch, June 1, 2022, “36 Experts Agree: Stay the Course in Ukraine,” The Hill.Marie Yovanovitch, March 25, 2022, “Marie Yovanovitch on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” The Washington Post.Marie Yovanovitch, March 15, 2022, “Lessons from the Edge: A Memoir,” Mariner Books.

Marked by regional struggles for hegemony and intense U.S.-China rivalry, the world order is headed toward a messy multipolarity where Europe has yet to find its place.Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe, and Stefan Lehne, senior fellow Carnegie Europe, sit down to unpack the trends in the emerging international system and assess the EU’s role within it.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:31] The Changing Global Order, [00:12:15] Power Shifts Within the EU, [00:21:23] Europe’s Future Political Challenges.Stefan Lehne, April 24, 2023, “The Comeback of the European Commission,” Carnegie Europe.Stefan Lehne, February 28, 2023, “After Russia’s War Against Ukraine: What Kind of World Order?,” Carnegie EuropeRosa Balfour, February 9, 2023, “The EU Must Reconcile Geopolitics and Democracy,” Carnegie Europe.Stefan Lehne, October 18, 2022, “The EU and the Creative and Destructive Impact of Crises,” Carnegie Europe.Rosa Balfour, Lizza Bomassi, and Marta Martinelli, June 29, 2022 “The Southern Mirror: Reflections on Europe from the Global South,” Carnegie Europe.Rosa Balfour, May 5, 2022, “Reckoned with: asserting Europe’s distinctive power in a multipolar world,” Académie Royal de Belgique.Stefan Lehne, April 14, 2022, “Making EU Foreign Policy Fit for a Geopolitical World,” Carnegie Europe.

The Black Sea is geopolitically significant as both a theater of trade and a theater of war. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shifted the traditional balance between Moscow and Ankara in the region and has led to an increased NATO presence there. Can the EU leverage its economic and foreign policy tools to expand its influence in the Black Sea?Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe, and Dimitar Bechev, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, discuss why the Black Sea is once again at the center of world events and what the future holds for the region.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:50] The Black Sea Today, [00:07:45] The Russian-Turkish Cohabitation [00.17.58] What Future for the Black Sea Region.Neal Ascherson, "Black Sea," Hill and Wang, Cambridge University Press, 1995Dimitar Bechev, February 28, 2023, “Sailing Through the Storm: Türkiye’s Black Sea Strategy Amidst the Russian-Ukrainian War,” European Union Institute for Security Studies.Dimitar Bechev, February 27, 2023, “Facing tragedy, Turkey mends ties with Greece and Armenia,” Al Jazeera.Dimitar Bechev, April 13, 2022, “Russia, Turkey and the Spectre of Regional Instability,” Al Sharq Strategic Research.Dimitar Bechev, March 30, 2022, “Turkey’s Response to the War in Ukraine,” Maple Institute.Thomas de Waal, July 07, 2022, “How Georgia Stumbled on the Road to Europe,” Foreign Policy.Thomas de Waal, June 09, 2022, “Georgia, Europe’s Problem Child,” Carnegie Europe.Thomas de Waal, May 10, 2022, “A Fragile Stability in Moldova,” Carnegie Europe.Thomas de Waal, March 03, 2022, “Darkness Looms Over Ukraine’s Neighborhood,” Carnegie Europe.Charles King, "The Black Sea: A History," Oxford University Press, 2005.

Iranians are revolting against a regime built on the systematic oppression of women, marginalized groups, and civil society. Against this background, as well as Tehran’s ties with authoritarian powers and the risk of escalating the nuclear file, the EU must reorient its approach by placing human rights and security at the center of its policy. Only then can it play a greater role in ensuring a brighter future for all Iranians and securing nuclear non-proliferation.Cornelius Adebahr, a nonresident fellow at Carnegie Europe, and Barbara Mittelhammer, a political analyst and consultant, discuss how the feminist nature of the protests can transform the country and lead to a re-think of the EU’s relations with Tehran.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:46] Iran in Present Day, [00:10:06] 30 years of EU Engagement with Iran, [00:15:38] A New Approach Toward Iran.Cornelius Adebahr and Barbara Mittelhammer, March 31, 2023, “Half a year of feminist revolt in Iran,” Delegation of Die LINKE in the European Parliament.Cornelius Adebahr and Barbara Mittelhammer, December 5, 2022, “Sketching a Feminist EU Response to the Revolt in Iran,” Carnegie Europe.Cornelius Adebahr, January 17, 2023, “Europe Needs a New Iran Strategy,” Carnegie Europe.Cornelius Adebahr, September 8, 2021, “Looking Beyond Iran to the Persian Gulf,” German Council on Foreign Relations. Cornelius Adebahr and Olivia Lazard, July 7, 2023, “How the EU Can Help Iran Tackle Water Scarcity,”, Carnegie Europe.Cornelius Adebahr, October 11, 2022, “Can Protests in Iran Topple the Regime?,” Carnegie Europe.Cornelius Adebahr et al., January 20, 2022, “How the Transatlantic Relationship Has Evolved, One Year Into the Biden Administration,” Carnegie Europe. Cornelius Adebahr and Barbara Mittelhammer, January 2, 2023, “’Women, Life, Freedom’: A German feminist foreign policy towards Iran,” Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung.Cornelius Adebahr, March 21, 2023, “What Germany’s turning point means for its feminist foreign policy,” Politico.