The Julia La Roche Show

Scott Galloway, Professor of Marketing at NYU Stern School of Business, and best-selling author of multiple books, including Adrift: America In 100 Charts, joins Julia La Roche on episode 32. In this episode, Julia and Scott delve into the “hunger games, winner takes most” economy that’s emerged, where it’s never been easier to become a billionaire in America and never been harder to become a millionaire. According to Scott, a millennial born in 1984, who’d be 37, only has a 50% chance of doing better economically than their parents. Scott highlights the erosion of the middle class in the U.S. and what it means for the country's social fabric. Scott pointed out how broke and lonely males are the most dangerous cohort. He also detailed how the rise of dating apps — an ecosystem that would have greater inequality than Venezuela — has hindered relationship formation. Elsewhere, Scott broke down how universities and colleges have become luxury brands. As Scott put it, this rejectionist luxury positioning at universities is the “most un-American thing.” He argued that we could easily expand freshman seats. Scott also shared his thoughts on Twitter and its new owner Elon Musk, which he describes as a “train wreck you can’t look away from.” He also shared his take on TikTok and his issue with its ownership. 0:00 Intro 0:43 Never been easier to be a billionaire in America 1:48 More business school students will be dependent on their parents 2:40 Millennials have it worse off than their parents 4:50 Consequences of an eroding middle class 6:30 Age inequality 8:30 What Social Security should look like now 11:00 The greediest generation in the world 12:10 Creating anger and volatility among younger people 15:00 Broke and lonely males are the most dangerous cohort 17:30 Need a leveling up for young males 20:45 Solution is viable young men 22:08 Need to double number of freshman seats at universities 24:00 Leveling up young men is not zero-sum or misogynistic 27:23 How dating apps make it difficult to find a partner 30:00 Dating app economy would have greater inequality than Venezuela 32:28 Need to invest in third spaces 34:13 Universities have become luxury brands 38:22 Rejectionist luxury universities are un-American 40:18 Student debt forgiveness was terrible 46:02 UNC is a gift, literally like a pharmaceutical 48:39 Thoughts on Twitter/ Elon Musk 54:30 Thoughts on the power of TikTok

Danielle DiMartino Booth, the CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 31.  DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how markets intelligence is conceived and delivered with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers, but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans to analyze the trends and provide critical analysis on what is driving the markets – both in the United States and globally. Since inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth’s The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more. A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018.  She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas where she served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. (Also, here are the links to Danielle's 2007 papers at the Dallas Fed, The Rise And Fall Of Subprime Mortgages: https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/eclett/2007/el0711.pdf, and From Complacency To Crisis: Financial Risk Taking in  the early 21st Century https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/eclett/2007/el0712.pdf) 0:00 Intro 0:42 At a critical juncture 1:38 We’re in a global recession right now 2:50 A much different construct in this layoff cycle 4:17 A white-collar recession 5:45 How a white-collar wave of layoffs impacts the economy 6:37 Quiet quitting is un-American 8:32 Can the Fed engineer a soft landing? 10:40 Few are accustomed to the type of Fed we have now 12:05 Maybe Jay Powell wants to kill the Fed put 15:20 Jay Powell wants to establish a better legacy 16:47 Not enough at the Fed has changed 18:12 If the Fed succeeds, Main Street will be the real winner 22:22 There will be air come out of this housing bubble 25:08 Investors exacerbating this housing cycle 27:13 Fed policies fed speculation in housing 28:18 The risk lives in the credit market 30:50 Watching continuous jobless claims 32:00 Are we set up for an even worse recession? 33:00 Biggest risk 35:19 Millennials, Gen Z will have to deal with a different reality 37:17 Time for Millennials to rise

Vitaliy Katsenelson, the CEO at IMA, a value investing firm in Denver, joins Julia on episode 30 to discuss his newest book, Soul in the Game: The Art of a Meaningful Life, which is his first non-investing book. Vitaliy shares his love of writing, family, work, music, and stoic philosophy in the book. In this episode, Vitaliy details his backstory of growing up in Soviet Russia and coming to America. He also shares his impressions of capitalism and how investing was “love at first sight.” For Vitality, writing is the most important thing that’s transformed his life and career, and he spends 700 hours each year writing. Vitaliy views Stoicism as an operating system for life. He wishes he had encountered Stoicism when his mother died of brain cancer when he was 11, and that tragedy helped bring him closer to his father. Elsewhere, Vitaliy shares his views of the markets and why high-interest rates are making value investing great again. He dives into his thesis of a Dot-com Bubble 2.0, how tech stocks became overvalued thanks to abundant capital, and how eventually, that sector will be a “value investor’s paradise.” He also shared his economic outlook and house the housing market is worse than you think. 0:00 Intro 0:42 Born in Russia, made in America 2:36 First impressions of capitalism 4:31 First taste of Pepsi 8:01 Finance was ‘love at first sight’ 12:28 Writing journey 16:30 700 hours per year writing 19:08 Navigating a painful period through writing 22:50 Losing mother to brain cancer at age 11 25:00 Stoicism as an operating system for life 27:00 Stoicism and investing 30:12 High interest rates make value investing great again 32:33 How low rates fueled tech stocks 35:36 Thoughts on tech layoffs 36:46 Quiet quitting ends with loud firing 39:00 Dot-com bubble 2.0 44:37 Tech stocks will become a value investor’s paradise 46:00 We’re likely going to have a recession 46:55 Housing market is worse than you think 51:00 Where it gets worse for homeowners 52:05 A value investor’s framework during a recession 53:37 America became more tribal 55:40 Student loan debt forgiveness is a slippery slope 1:02:00 A moral hazard 1:03:00 Final thoughts

Billionaire investor and tech entrepreneur Steve Case, the co-founder of AOL and now the CEO and Revolution, joins Julia La Roche on episode 29 to discuss his newest book, "The Rise Of The Rest: How Entrepreneurs in Surprising Places are Building the New American Dream." In 2014, Case launched Revolution's "Rise of the Rest," an initiative to accelerate the growth of startups based outside of Silicon Valley. Rise of the Rest is based on a simple idea: talent is equally distributed, but opportunity is not. Historically, 75% of venture capital money has flown to three states — California, New York, and Massachusetts, resulting in a "brain drain," where people who grew up in Middle America move to Silicon Valley for opportunities. Since 2014, Case and the Revolution team have traveled more than 11,000 miles to 43 cities on the Rise of the Rest bus to visit entrepreneurial ecosystems and highlight great companies and entrepreneurs. On each tour, they hit five cities in five days, meeting with startups and elected officials. Rise of the Rest hosts a pitch competition and invests $100,000 in a local startup. As a result of our tours, Revolution launched two $150 million Rise of the Rest Seed Funds to invest in seed stage companies between the coasts. Rise of The Rest has attracted big-name backers, including John Doerr, Jim Breyer, Henry Kravis, David Rubenstein, Eric Schmidt, Tory Burch, Jeff Bezos, Ray Dalio, Howard Schultz, and many more. 0:00 Intro 0:35 Traveling the U.S. by bus 2:00 American cities on the rise 3:25 Top-tier returns outside of Silicon Valley 8:35 75% of venture capital goes to 3 states 11:46 Peak Silicon Valley? 15:10 The Third Wave of the Internet 17:30 Something is brewing out there 19:30 Dealing with the skepticism 21:28 200 investments in 100 cities 23:05 New venture firms launched outside CA, NY, MA 24:20 Evaluating entrepreneurs 26:30 Startups fuel job growth 29:15 Seeing America by road 30:22 Why is America divided? 33:50 Slowing the brain drain 36:15 The boomerang effect 39:09 America’s success is not guaranteed 41:45 Need for immigration reform 43:11 Early days of the internet 47:47 Director of New Pizza Development 49:24 Advice for the next-gen entrepreneur

Dr. Nomi Prins, economist and author of the new book “Permanent Distortion: How The Financial Markets Abandoned The Real Economy Forever,” joins Julia on episode 28. Dr. Prins is an international economist, investigative journalist, geopolitical financial expert, and outspoken advocate for economic reform. She was a member of Senator Bernie Sanders’ panel of top economic experts advising on Fed reform. Dr. Prins’ new book exposes the ever-growing divide between the financial markets and the real economy and the unprecedented crises it has caused. This conversation explores how we got to a permanent distortion and why the Fed and its policies are at the epicenter.  0:00 Intro 0:43 Goldman Sachs MD to investigative journalist 3:05 What is the Permanent Distortion 5:00 The Fed is at the epicenter 8:55 The Fed is pretending to be an inflation hero 13:02 One big convenient lie 14:55 Relationship between the Fed and Wall Street 18:00 Will the Fed ever be reformed? 21:06 Unelected officials control the money 22:33 Credibility of the Fed 24:08 From a great distortion to a permanent distortion 27:44 Inflation likely to remain higher than Fed’s 2% target 32:02 Fed could’ve mitigated the home/rent part of inflation 35:11 What would Dr. Prins ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell? 36:40 Dr. Prins' speeches before central bankers 40:10 Why central banks globally act in lockstep 41:49 Meme stock mania a symptom of Fed policies 44:20 The evolution of Bitcoin 47:33 Solutions to address the permanent distortion 50:40 5 economic sectors emerging 52:20 What happens if nothing changes? 54:00 Final thoughts

Investor and speculator Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and board member of startup bank Battle Financial, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging discussion on natural resources.  Rule, who has more than 49 years of investing experience, looks at the macro picture from the lens of a credit analyst. He’s long-term optimistic but short-term pessimistic, thanks mainly to the excesses of artificially low interest rates, artificially induced liquidity, and systematic overregulation. Rule expects there will be 3 or 4 “very hard years not too far in the future,” and it will be “severe but survivable.” He added that he’s investing aggressively.  During the conversation, Rule shared his view on energy, the diesel shortage in the U.S., and his thesis on investing in uranium. He detailed some of the fictional narratives about energy, including why the narrative that we’re going to replace fossil fuels is a joke. Elsewhere, Rule outlined why one should invest in gold, which he characterizes as an insurance policy. He also shared why he's speculating on silver.  0:00 Intro  0:31 ‘Failing’ retirement  2:46 Macro view as a credit analyst  5:00 A reckoning from rising rates 6:25 War on savers 8:58 Young people are becoming aware at a great rate  10:15 Long-term demographic trends 13:03 Idiocy of energy policies  15:27 People are waking up to the need for fossil fuels today 17:30 Diesel fuel shortages in the U.S.  21:31 It’s a joke that we’re going to replace fossil fuels 24:44 Investment thesis for uranium  28:15 Triumph of reality over narrative 32:55 Ways to invest in uranium 34:30 Biggest risks of investing in uranium 34:45 Outlook on gold 40:00 Gold as a life insurance policy  41:45 Why buy a 10-Year Treasury?  43:30 Will the Fed stop inflation? 44:45 Will long-term optimism end? 48:30 Social Security  49:45 How to invest in gold 52:30 Thoughts on silver 56:00 Where to find more from Rick Rule

Brent Donnelly (@donnelly_brent), president of Spectra Markets, joins Julia La Roche on episode 26. Brent has been trading since 1995 and writing about global macro since 2004. He is the author of “Alpha Trader” (2021) and “The Art of Currency Trading” (Wiley, 2019). He writes a widely-read and highly-respected global macro daily called am/FX. He just published a trader handbook and almanac this week. Throughout his career, he has been a market maker, trader, and senior manager at some of the top banks in the U.S. and a portfolio manager at a major hedge fund. Brent also has a creative side, publishing colorful commentary. He also wrote a cartoon that ran on television in Canada. During this episode, Donnelly shares his macro views and why he’s near-term bullish and riding this optimism wave. Donnelley’s investment style takes only a one-week to a one-month horizon. Donnelly, who traded during the dot-com bubble burst, shares why we might see something similar to 2001 next year. 0:00 Intro 0:36 Early beginnings trading FX 2:24 Trading and writing cartoons 7:14 Writing critical to trading success 12:31 Daily trading plan 16:20 There’s no Fed pivot happening 18:05 Long stocks, short dollar in near-term 19:46 Mortgage resets 21:14 Pain from rate hikes in the U.S. comes later 23:23 Sell rallies in stocks 24:16 Fed losing credibility 28:03 Playing the optimism trade 30:28 Good time for macro 32:00 Tactical trading approach 34:34 Pavlovian buy-the-dip mentality 37:07 Why we might see something similar to 2001 42:00 What breaks things? 43:43 Magazine cover indicator

Alex Gurevich is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments, a Bay Area-based investment management firm, and the author of two books — The Next Perfect Trade and Wall Street Journal bestseller The Trades of March 2020. Gurevich led HonTe’s macro strategy in 2020 to rank second by net return according to BarclayHedge—and in the top ten of emerging managers in all strategies by Eurekahedge. Gurevich has over twenty years of trading experience and was hailed by the Wall Street Journal in 2003 as the star trader of JPMorgan, where he served as Managing Director responsible for global macro trading. In this episode, Gurevich shares his divergent views, which are that rates are most likely going to zero, and deflation — not inflation — is the concern. 0:00 Intro 0:31 St. Petersburg to America 1:38 Early interest in Wall Street 2:53 Poker and investing 4:39 Psychology of trading 8:37 Turning HonTe’s 2020 trading success into a book 12:33 Extreme side of the deflation camp 13:33 Two words: Policy lag 17:04 Outlook for rates 20:22 Implications of deflation 24:15 Why is there a shortage of dollars? 27:10 Scenario for deeper a longer recession, global depression 30:59 Oil and energy pivotal to the deflation story 33:14 Why Japan might be in the best position 34:34 What the inflation camp is missing 37:58 Focus on the Fed 42:11 Thesis of deflationary depression and implications for a portfolio 44:50 Why bonds will have more upside 46:00 What would alter or reinforce the thesis on deflation? 48:12 Final thoughts

Fixed income market legend Harley Bassman (@convexitymaven), known as “The Convexity Maven,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 24 for a wide-ranging conversation on the bond market, volatility, housing, demographics, and more.  Bassman is currently a managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, a fast-growing Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) provider. At the recording date, the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX), which aims to hedge interest rate movements arising from rising long-term interest rates and to benefit from market stress when fixed income volatility increases, is up 100% year-to-date. Bassman is also the creator of the MOVE Index, a standard measure of interest rate volatility similar to the VIX. He clarifies how investors should think about the index and why levels near 50 and 150 are the “wrong number.”  In the conversation, Bassman discusses the implications of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and why there needs to be a repricing of all assets for reality.  0:00 Intro 0:31 Harley’s background 1:42 Convexity explained 3:22 Macro views 5:17 Inflation isn’t coming down quickly 8:30 The Fed is doing the job 11:17 Demographics is the iceberg 14:17 Boomers have robbed the Millennials 15:14 Public policy mistake with housing 18:14 People trying to buy a house right now are ‘unfortunate’ 20:40 Not going to be a housing crisis 22:19 The MOVE Index 30:27 Yield Curve single best predictor of a recession 34:58 MOVE and the VIX 37:19 Stocks will likely go down in an orderly fashion 40:25 The world’s not broken 43:47 Repricing for reality 46:34 Recession outlook 49:55 Learn to write, expand your mind 53:12 The Maven Mantra

Ritholtz Wealth Management COO Nick Maggiulli (@dollarsanddata), author of “Just Keep Buying: Proven Ways to Save Money and Build Your Wealth” and the popular finance blog Of Dollars And Data, joins Julia La Roche on episode 23.  In 2017, Nick made it his New Year’s Resolution to publish a weekly blog post. His “Of Dollars And Data” blog has grown in popularity, and his writing habit turned into a book deal.  In the conversation, Nick discusses his strategies for saving money and investing. He shared the biggest life perpetuated by personal finance experts, his “2X Rule” that lets you enjoy your money. Nick also explained his argument for why you shouldn’t pick individual stocks and why you shouldn’t max out your 401k. The self-described permabull also explained why investing is still the way to go, even during turbulent times.  0:00 Intro  0:31 Insights into the book publishing business  4:20 New Year’s Resolution to write 7:59 Saving is for the poor, investing is for the rich  12:13 How much should you save?  14:08 Biggest lie in personal finance  15:43 “The 2x Rule”  17:39 Retirement is about more than money  19:50 Thoughts on the FIRE movement  21:21 Think like an owner 23:13 Don’t buy individual stocks  26:35 Talented or lucky?  28:54 Thoughts on dollar cost averaging  31:46 How to buy during turbulent times 37:00 How do you know when it’s a buying opportunity  40:56 Why you shouldn’t max out your 401k  43:18 State of financial education  44:33 Why you’ll never feel rich  47:44 The most important asset  48:49 Begin life as a growth stock, end as a value stock