The Julia La Roche Show

Dr. Nouriel Roubini (@nouriel), Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University's Stern School of Business, joins Julia La Roche on episode 42 to discuss his newest book, MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them. Roubini, known as "Dr. Doom" due to his tendency to make pessimistic predictions, warned of the housing crisis and impending recession, but it was too late. Roubini is now making another prediction that is even more alarming and should not be overlooked. The world is facing a multitude of interconnected threats, referred to as Megathreats, that have the potential to cause widespread disaster. According to Roubini, these Megathreats are all connected and threaten not only our jobs, income, savings, and wealth but also our health, the planet's health, and even our species' survival. These Megathreats include the worst debt crisis ever seen, excessive money printing by governments, blocked borders for workers and goods, the growing competition between China and the US, and the effects of climate change on heavily populated cities. Roubini says we're "sleepwalking into disaster," and this book is a "wake-up call." Time is of the essence in addressing these issues and attempting to prevent their adverse outcomes. Roubini is also the Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, and Co-Founder of TheBoomBust.com. He is a former senior economist for international affairs in the White House's Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com, and he is the host of NourielToday.com. 0:00 Roubini's new book 2:58 Connecting the dots of 10 Megathreats 4:00 World faces the biggest test since WWII 5:50 Mother of all debt crises 11:00 A perfect storm 18:00 Can we go back to 2% inflation without a hard landing? 19:30 Debate is no longer a soft or hard landing 20:42 Not going to be a short and shallow recession 23:42 Factors that could lead to a hard landing 24:00 Central banks are going to blink 24:45 Demographic time bomb 28:50 Intergenerational conflict between young and old 31:40 AI as a megathreat 35:14 AI will usher in a massive increase in income and wealth inequality 36:00 The trouble with UBI 39:00 Threat to our species 41:00 ChatGPT 41:50 Roubini's advice to young people 46:27 Public enemy No. 1 of crypto since 2017 49:40 Crypto is 'the biggest financial fraud in human history' 51:58 Megathreat of financial instability 54:40 US dollar status as the global reserve currency 56:00 Divided world 58:00 De-dollarization, rise in gold 1:00:31 Do you want to own gold right now? 1:03:00 What to own in this scenario? 1:06:38 Global pandemics 1:11:13 Things Roubini never used to worry about 1:13:05 World looks more like the period between 1914 in 194 1:15:20 Sleepwalking into disaster 1:19:00 How do we survive the Megathreats? 1:21:20 Technology is the solution 1:23:00 Parting thoughts

Macro researcher Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch), founder and president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 41.  In this episode, Bianco makes the case that we’ve entered a different market era from 2009 to 2021 and why he doesn’t expect the Fed to cut rates or pivot anytime soon. He also breakdowns this paradox where for the first time most Wall Street strategists expect a decline in the stock market in 2023, which wasn't the case during the Great Recession or after 9/11.  He explains that a recession has become their bull story where the Fed will cut rates and the market will rise. Bianco also outlines how we’ve entered a post-pandemic economy marking the end of an era of cheap goods, labor, and energy. As such, he makes a case for why inflation won’t return to 2%.  Bianco notes that the market going forward will turn into a stock picker’s market versus buying indexes and ETFs and relying on the Fed put. He also outlines opportunities in fixed income, what he’s watching for in equities, and his thoughts on gold. Finally, Bianco weighs in on the FTX fiasco and explains why he’s still a big fan of cryptocurrencies and what’s needed for the space.  0:00 Macro view 0:31 2023 starts off with a divergence 1:10 A different era of persistent inflation 2:14 Market is a liquidity junkie 3:36 Paradox of wanting a recession 5:01 A recession is the bull story 5:35 Bianco’s view on a recession 7:05 What the Fed is hoping for 10:35 Inflation 12:41 Why we won’t get back to 2% 13:11 Watch what the MTA is doing with subway service 14:40 Giant shift in workforce attitude 15:42 China is a disaster right now 18:02 Era of cheap goods, labor, and energy is over 20:30 The path 2% requires killing the economy 23:00 Energy 27:48 What folks are missing on the China reopening story 33:10 Bank of Japan expands trading band for 10-year Japanese government bonds 35:58 Japan has an inflation problem 37:00 There’s a developed world inflation problem 38:22 More implications from the BOJ’s surprise move 40:29 It’s now a stock picker’s market 42:26 George Noble 43:33 Fixed income is becoming interesting 45:35 Equities 47:00 More on fixed income 50:45 Thoughts on gold 52:20 GLD 58:09 Thoughts on crypto in the wake of FTX/SBF 1:01:01 Crypto turned into a casino 1:02:48 Banking system is inherently unstable 1:05:37 Impacts of FTX on the crypto industry 1:11:40 Book recommendation

Tom Thornton (@TommyThornton), founder and president of Hedge Fund Telemetry, has had an incredible year amid market turbulence. The former portfolio manager, senior trader, and technical analyst has delivered returns of 52% so far in 2022. In this episode, Tom, who focuses on sentiment indicators, explains why markets are nervous and that we haven’t seen a true market capitulation yet. He predicts that in 2023 we might see capitulation as the retail investor starts to give up. Elsewhere, Tom weighs in on his investment process and approach. He also shares his thoughts on the Fed’s rate hikes and why he doesn’t expect any rate cuts next year. He also details his short on Tesla.  Tom has written a daily market note for a select group of hedge fund managers for years and now has offered it for all investors with Hedge Fund Telemetry, which features market sentiment, macro daily insights utilizing DeMark Indicators, sector rotations, and long and short trade ideas with professional commentary and more. 0:00 Approach to markets 4:47 Sizing positions 11:13 Time horizons 13:12 The market is nervous 16:50 Capitulation 18:26 No safe place to hide 22:50 The Fed 27:27 Market’s Fed dependency 38:48 Elon Musk and Tesla 48:08 Hedge Fund Telemetry

Stephanie Link, Chief Investment Strategist at Hightower Advisors and CNBC contributor, Joins Julia La Roche on episode 39 to discuss the Fed’s latest interest rate hike, her economic and market outlook for 2023, her investment process, what makes a great CEO, working with Jim Cramer, and more. Stephanie Link joined Hightower in June 2020 as Chief Investment Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Hightower. Before joining Hightower, Ms. Link was the Senior Managing Director and Head of Global Equities Research at Nuveen. She also served as Chief Investment Officer at TheStreet, Co-Portfolio Manager of Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust, and Managing Director of Institutional Sales and Director of Research at Prudential Equity Group. With over 27 years of experience managing money, Ms. Link’s insights are frequently sought after for industry events and by the media, and is a CNBC contributor for several shows, including The Halftime Report, Closing Bell, and Squawk Box. 0:00 Intro 0:00 Reaction to the Fed rate hike 2:33 Should be ratcheting down the hawkishness 3:33 Outlook on rate hikes 4:30 Theory on market reaction to Fed 5:30 Pivot off the table in Q1 7:08 Inflation 9:06 Fed’s 2% inflation target 10:06 Big picture view of the economy 14:45 Investment approach 19:12 Opportunities 23:12 Picking the No. 1 and 2 players 25:00 Betting against consumer is not a great thing 27:12 Evaluating management teams, CEOs 30:22 What makes a great leader? 34:39 Jim Cramer 39:57 Buying when a stock is down 42:00 Pursuing a career in finance/investing 45:00 CNBC 47:40 Sports team 49:20 Routine 51:20 Parting thoughts

Blythe Masters, founding partner at Motive Partners; Brett Redfearn, founder of Panorama Financial Markets Advisory; Liz Von Habsburg, managing director at Winston Art Group; and Carlos Domingo, CEO of Securitize, join Julia La Roche on episode 38. This episode is a recording of a panel from Art Basel hosted by Securitize called “Art & Equity: Expanding Access to High-Quality Assets from Fine Art to Private Equity.” 0:00 Intros 6:27 Defining tokenization, the blockchain 8:51 Use cases for tokenization 10:14 How blockchain, crypto has disappointed many 13:00 Looking at crypto/blockchain through First Principles 15:00 Real-world use cases 16:20 Opportunity to democratize capital markets with blockchain 19:00 Expanding access to art and PE 22:08 Thoughts on FTX fiasco 25:40 Crypto industry’s reaction 28:08 Evolution in art investing through technology 29:20 Short-term pain, long-term gain 30:15 Ownership is an ‘enormous prize’ for blockchain technology 34:00 You can’t break everything 35:28 Basic fundamental problems that could benefit from digitization 37:15 Don’t underestimate what can be done with the existing regulatory framework

Macro expert Axel Merk (@AxelMerk), Chief Investment Officer of and founder of Merk Investments, joins Julia La Roche on episode 37 to discuss monetary policy, the economy, gold, and more. In this episode, Merk details the Federal Reserve's sledgehammer approach to monetary policy and why the central bank will likely push the economy into recession. He also shared his thesis on stagflation.  Merk outlined why next year's market might be "more nuanced." He also shared his outlook on gold, the U.S. dollar, and more.  Axel has grown Merk Investments into a $1 billion investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. 0:00 Intro 0:31 Macro view 1:45 Sledgehammer approach 2:06 A more nuanced market in 2023 2:49 Central banks trying to fix their mistakes 5:14 Extremely counterproductive policies 6:18 Rates should be coming down 7:27 Fed is basically a debating club 8:11 The Fed needs a new framework 10:38 Why The Fed might pause hikes at the May meeting 13:00 Inflation outlook 16:40 Social implications of policy 19:24 Stagflation thesis 23:00 Investing in gold 25:30 3 types of gold investors 26:56 Gold is the purest indicator of monetary policy 30:24 U.S. Dollar outlook 32:48 What does a more nuanced market look like? 35:40 Merk’s framework 40:20 Why invest in gold miners 45:00 Merk’s journey in the financial markets 49:40 Building and growing a business 51:40 Pilot 53:13 Parting thoughts

Jim Rickards (@jamesgrickards) returns to the Julia La Roche Show for episode 36 to discuss his new book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. In this episode, Rickards shares his macro view and why we may be headed for a global recession. He also provides a deep dive into supply chains, describing when and how they broke down and why they won't return to the way they were before 2019. He also shares the emergence of what he calls "supply chain 2.0," which he predicts will consist of a college of nations. Elsewhere, Rickards discusses his take on inflation and why deflation is coming faster than you might think. Finally, he shares his best asset allocation strategies for these uncertain times. Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, and The New Case for Gold. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. 0:00 Jim's new book "Sold Out" 0:54 View of the global macroeconomy 1:37 The supply chain is the economy 3:33 What do China, the war in Ukraine, and climate change have to do with supply chains? 6:58 China's Zero-Covid policy and its possible consequences 12:11 We're looking at a global recession, and that's rare 13:24 The future supply chain will look very different 14:35 Why the supply chains broke down and won't go back to the way they were 20:00 Supply Chain 1.0 23:42 What happened when Trump put tariffs on soybeans 30:24 National security and geopolitics 33:48 A college of nations 39:00 Peak China  42:00 Inflation 47:05 Why the Fed can't do anything about the supply side of the equation 49:49 Disinflation and deflation 51:12 Severe recession 54:34 How long would it take for the Fed to cut rates? 1:01:08 Central bankers' worst nightmare 1:05:10 What would a deflationary scenario mean for the economy?

Dana D’Auria, co-CIO of Envestnet, joins Julia La Roche on episode 35.  D’Auria, an English major, started her career as a journalist on the business beat and transitioned into finance after earning an MBA. A background in writing has been instrumental in the investment world, especially in explaining complex topics.  She spent 14 years at Symmetry Partners, serving as director of research and managing director and portfolio manager before joining Envestnet. The fin-tech b2b company provides technology and tools for financial advisors to offer hyper-personalized experiences for clients’ portfolios.  Elsewhere, D’Auria shared her macroeconomic outlook, what’s top of mind amongst investors and clients, and why value investing is attractive in a rising rate environment.  0:00 Dana’s journey from business journalism to working in finance 2:41 Gaps in the education system as it relates to finance 5:06 Envestnet, explained 8:20 Leveraging insights for client’s portfolios 10:37 How the advent of tech and access to data changes the money management 13:00 Humans + machines 16:28 Rough ride in markets 19:08 Future of the traditional 60/40 portfolio 21:53 Types of bear markets 24:11 What kinds of conversations with clients? 29:27 Value investing 31:42 Market outlook 36:39 Personalizing a portfolio

Carson Block, the activist short seller, founder of Muddy Waters Capital, and host of Zer0es TV and the Zero F**ks Given podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 34. Block rose to prominence over a decade ago by exposing Chinese companies listed in the U.S. that were frauds. He’s best known for his 2011 takedown of Sino-Forest, which overstated its timber holdings and ended up filing for bankruptcy, causing big-name investors to lose hundreds of millions. Block is often referred to as an activist short seller because he conducts in-depth research, takes a position, and publicly releases a report explaining his thesis. In the episode, he explained why he prefers the title “investor journalist.”  In the episode, Block details his two latest short targets — DLocal, a payments company in Uruguay, and Sunrun, a solar panel company. He also shares why ESG is the 2nd "mass investing delusion" he's witnessed. 0:00 Intro 0:31 Origin story as an activist short-selling 1:45 We were getting lied to all the time 2:35 Law School  3:29 Shorting Chinese stocks 5:45 Conflicts of interest, laziness, and ineptitude in the capital markets 6:55 The Sino-Forest short 9:55 Grifting in the ESG space 13:20 The Sunrun short thesis 19:50 Impact of rising rates 21:18 DLocal short thesis 26:28 DLocal’s response 29:40 Block’s process for building a short thesis 35:05 “Investor Journalist” 38:20 Why short selling exists 42:45 How short selling is perceived 45:02 The “Tick The Box Apocalypse”

Jan Van Eck (@janvaneck3), CEO of Van Eck Funds, one of the world’s largest sponsors of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), joins Julia La Roche on episode 33 to discuss the next big investment opportunity in fixed income.  During the conversation, Jan explains why we’re entering a period where bonds will outperform equities. That’s why he thinks investors must be majority weighted in fixed income. He also points out that too many investors are too focused on the next equity rally since they’re accustomed to the Fed put.  The conversation also touched upon Bitcoin and digital assets amid the FTX fiasco. Jan noted that Bitcoin had demonstrated an ability to withstand a lot of tests. He also shared his thesis on the digital asset and why it’s a store of value against paper money.  Founded in 1955, VanEck was one the first U.S. asset managers to offer investors access to international markets, setting the tone for identifying asset classes and trends – including gold investing in 1968, emerging markets in 1993, and exchange-traded funds in 2006, and digital assets in 2017. VanEck manages approximately $70 billion in assets, including mutual funds, ETFs and institutional accounts. 0:00 Intro 0:33 Macro view 1:55 2022 can be summarized in one sentence 2:43 Fixed income can and should be a bigger part of a portfolio 3:02 Thoughts on the 60/40 portfolio 4:50 Where in the fixed income universe? 7:22 Views on the economy 9:16 Outlook for equities 10:00 Inflation may be more persistent than people think 12:30 Is the 2% target unrealistic 13:12 Labor market 14:12 Outlook for commodities 16:35 Don’t over chase equities 19:00 Why fixed income can be an under-appreciated part of a portfolio 20:50 Using history to identify all potential outcomes 23:23 Powell will make sure he slays inflation 26:11 FTX one of the last shoes to drop in the deleveraging of crypto 27:47 Knock-on effects from FTX 29:00 The good news for investors in crypto 30:00 Journey into digital assets, Bitcoin 31:24 Bitcoin Futures ETFs 32:10 Spot EFT 35:00 Thesis on Bitcoin 38:26 Biggest risks 41:00 3 big drivers on financial markets 43:00 Psychology of investing