Trumponomics

The so-called great resignation that’s confounding businesses in the West has a counterpart in a most unlikely place: China. This week, we offer a double dose of China’s “lie flat” movement, which is challenging the nation’s historic industriousness, as well as a glimpse into how America’s massive pandemic bailout juiced spending, especially among historically disadvantaged groups.First, Hong Kong-based economics reporter Tom Hancock explains why many Chinese workers are suddenly whiling away the hours playing online games instead of toiling on the factory floor. After years of clocking in at 9 a.m. and clocking out at 9 p.m., six days a week, some are saying enough is enough. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Shuli Ren shares how President Xi Jinping isn’t amused with this trend. China’s leadership meanwhile is eager to stop pumping out so many university graduates, preferring instead to steer youth into vocational training and high-value manufacturing. The hope is to replicate Germany’s success.Next, data reporter Andre Tartar unearths some revealing credit and debit card numbers to show how government payments during the pandemic boosted spending by Black Americans as much as 40% over 2019 levels. For a time at least, it shrunk the nation's persistent racial wealth gap. Finally, Hong Kong reporter Oanh Ha shares why some big food producers are betting that soon you may be getting some of your protein from crickets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It seems nothing can hurt the world's billionaires, not the worst pandemic in a century or a global recession. On this week's podcast, New York-based reporter Augusta Saraiva shares how the wealthiest only added to their fortunes as Covid-19 killed millions and flattened economies. Indeed, the super-rich accumulated $4.1 trillion just as 100 million of the planet's less fortunate fell into extreme poverty, according to estimates by the World Bank. Two years into the pandemic, some 2,750 billionaires now control 3.5% of the world's wealth -- almost double the holdings of the planet's poorest 50%, according to the Paris-based Global Inequality Lab. For those whose holdings don't reach ten figures but must still buy holiday gifts, Hong Kong-based economy reporter Enda Curran reports on the run-up in toy prices. He visits the maker of the Mighty Megasaur Megahunter T-Rex, who warns that consumers will shell out as much as 20% more this year because of the supply chain pinch. And finally, we provide a double dose of German politics as Chancellor Angela Merkel steps down following 16 years in office. Berlin-based producer Aggi Cantrill reports from the German parliament while Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, explains why Germany's smooth transition of power is so different from the kind of rancor that has befallen the U.K. and U.S. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Initially, Jerome Powell said the highest inflation in decades was going to be "transitory." This week, the world's most powerful central banker said the nebulous term should be retired. Such is the high-stakes guessing game going on at the Federal Reserve and the world's central banks, which risk losing public confidence should inflation continue to prove less, well, transitory than expected.This week, Stephanie delves into the messaging strategies of both central bankers and American corporations. First, Stephen King, a British economist and senior economic adviser to HSBC, suggests Powell's openness to cutting support for the U.S. financial system is meant to reestablish trust with the public by signaling a willingness to tackle inflation. Next, U.S.-based economics reporter Matt Boesler details the selective messaging of U.S. corporations, where profits are up 37% over last year despite rampant CEO complaints about wage inflation.Finally, Geneva-based economics reporter Bryce Baschuk shares how the debate over intellectual property rights for Covid-19 vaccines is a chance for the World Trade Organization to become relevant again.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week we unpack two very different challenges facing global leaders: the climate crisis and domestic violence. First, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry joins host Stephanie Flanders to share why he thinks the Glasgow Climate Pact is more than just words on paper. Among other achievements, Kerry notes that countries representing most of the world’s gross domestic product agreed to cut methane emissions by 30% this decade. Such cuts to this dangerous greenhouse gas (if they actually happen) would be a worthy accomplishment, even if rich nations have yet to fulfill a pledge to steer $100 billion a year to poorer nations facing the brunt of climate change.As countries try to cut carbon, whether by a tax on emissions or other measures, leaders can limit the effects on inflation by adopting the measures sooner rather than later—when more drastic measures may be needed, Bloomberg’s senior Euro-area economist Maeva Cousin says.Finally, Frankfurt-based economics reporter Carolynn Look shares the harrowing story of a German woman who escaped a violent partner and how some European companies are stepping forward to fight domestic abuse. They have a financial imperative as well as a moral one: gender-based violence is estimated by the European Institute for Gender Equality to cost the European Union economy 366 billion euros ($409 billion) a year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As if rising sea levels and fiercer cyclones weren't enough to worry about, the climate crisis is already cutting crop yields and could lead to widespread food shortages. That's the grave warning from the United Nations, which cautions that farmers won't meet a projected 50% increase in food demand by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions stay high. In a special episode, Stephanie Flanders tackles how to feed almost 10 billion people, the projected population of the planet in three decades. She turned to four leaders in global agriculture at Bloomberg's New Economy Forum in Singapore for their insight. Technology will play a starring role, says Werner Baumann, chairman of German healthcare and agricultural giant Bayer AG. One Bayer project involves developing "short-stature" corn that resists stalk breakage and can be planted more densely. Cargill Inc. Chairman David MacLennan insists genetically modified organisms must be part of the solution, though GMOs are a controversial component of modern agriculture with significant opposition.Finally, the panelists had some ideas regarding a tweet from the world's richest man, who last month offered to put up $6 billion if a UN official could prove the money would solve world hunger. Sara Menker, chief executive of agricultural analytics firm Gro Intelligence, suggests Elon Musk's money would be best spent creating a new financial institution to help modernize how many crops are traded. More fundamentally, Musk's money could build roads and crop storage facilities so farmers in developing nations could more easily get their products to market, says Alloysius Attah of Farmerline, which helps farmers embrace technology.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One by one, countries that sought to stamp out Covid-19's spread with aggressive lockdowns are giving up zero-tolerance policies and learning to live with the virus. The most notable exception is China, which has decided to cling to the strategy. This week, the new attitude among many nations toward the coronavirus is getting a major test in Singapore, host of Bloomberg's New Economy Forum. The city-state recently experienced its biggest flare-up of the pandemic. In a special episode, Stephanie Flanders discusses Singapore's determination to move forward with the annual meeting of political, business and academic leaders with NEF editorial director Andrew Browne. In many ways, Singapore is intent on signaling it's open for business and that "remaining in lockdown just wasn't an option,'' Browne says. It's a gamble that others in the region are now taking, including New Zealand, which had been widely praised for containing the virus via severe restrictions on daily life, but hasn't been able to shake a steady infection rate.For now, China is bucking the shift away from zero-tolerance. It's still willing to shut down at the slightest hint of an outbreak. However, the approach is coming at great cost to its economy, Bloomberg chief economist Tom Orlik tells Flanders. With China also facing threats from energy shortages and distress in its giant real estate industry, the country's traditional 6% or 7% annual growth could be halved in 2022, Orlik warns.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Robots may replace us eventually, but for now Covid-19 has revealed just how desperate businesses are for workers of the human variety, and the broader economic consequences of that desperation. Companies are raising wages to attract talent, which in turn is helping boost inflation. It hit 6.2% in the U.S. last month and is running at 8.1% in Russia.This week, Bloomberg reporters on two continents share how and why workers are slow to return to the office, factory and field. First, New York-based economics reporter Jill Shah explains the mystery behind the U.S. labor market, which at once has millions of unemployed and as many as 11 million openings. A few of the reasons? Some are waiting to land a remote job, others can't find childcare--and at least a few are trying to make a living trading cryptocurrency. Meantime, Moscow-based reporter Áine Quinn finds Russia's labor shortage is more easily explained. Many migrant workers from Central Asia left during the pandemic and didn't return, while the nation's high infection and death rates has many Russians staying home. Finally, Stephanie Flanders discusses the labor shortage's lasting effects with Jason Furman, a professor of the practice of economic policy at Harvard University. History tells us that many long-term unemployed will see their skills erode, leaving them at a competitive disadvantage, Furman says. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As if controlling spiraling inflation wasn’t enough to worry about, the world’s central bankers are under increasing pressure to help solve climate change, income inequality and myriad other societal ills. What’s more, elected officials in some nations are trying to exert more power over bankers for political ends.Stephanie Flanders debates the proper role of a central banker with three esteemed women economists, Isabel Schnabel of the European Central Bank, Carmen Reinhart of the World Bank and Minouche Shafik of the London School of Economics and Political Science. While bankers can’t be the “white knight” who rushes in to save the world from global warming or income inequality, they can use their bully pulpit to prod slow-moving politicians to act, Shafik says. Schnabel goes a step further, arguing that tough talk alone won’t suffice, and that central bankers should use what economic levers they have available to advance important causes.Of the three economists, Reinhart raised the most concern about inflation, currently running at an annual rate of 5.4% in the U.S. and 4.1% in the euro area. Yes, the world needs to address the climate crisis, she says, but nothing will stop the green economy faster than high prices, which may lead to tighter monetary policies and a steep drop in financing in developing nations.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

More than a decade after the U.S. subprime crisis sparked the Great Recession, the threat of default at giant property developer Evergrande is raising the prospect that ghost towns of unoccupied homes could trigger a China property slump. On this week’s podcast, Hong Kong-based economics reporter Tom Hancock visits Evergrande to see how the company is trying to raise money and avoid default, including by trying to sell its headquarters. Guest host Tom Orlik delves into the issues with Rhodium Group Director Logan Wright and Bloomberg economist David Qu, a former financial stability regulator at the People’s Bank of China.And finally, with Halloween just around the corner, Orlik ponders the scariest risks to the global economy with three Bloomberg economists: Anna Wong in Washington, Dan Hanson in London and Ziad Daoud in Dubai. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Central bankers are in a precarious spot in this chaotic pandemic economy. U.S. and U.K. consumers are grousing about rising prices and want some relief. But if government officials give it to them by raising interest rates, they may set back the recovery. It wouldn’t be the first time an errant move by a central bank triggered a recession.This week, Stephanie Flanders helps listeners navigate the perils of monetary policy with David Wilcox, Bloomberg’s director of U.S. economic research, and Jamie Rush, Bloomberg's chief European economist. Wilcox, who formerly directed the U.S. Federal Reserve’s research division, explains why the central bank is more worried that inflation will run too low over the long term, and less worried about the current 5.4% annual rate. Meanwhile, Rush argues that the Bank of England “lost its nerve” and is taking too aggressive an approach in battling price increases. And, in a dispatch from Brazil, reporter Maria Eloisa Capurro shares why a new mobile payment app called Pix has overtaken the nation of 213 million people faster than expected, with everyone from small business owners to panhandlers accepting it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.