Trumponomics

Robots may replace us eventually, but for now Covid-19 has revealed just how desperate businesses are for workers of the human variety, and the broader economic consequences of that desperation. Companies are raising wages to attract talent, which in turn is helping boost inflation. It hit 6.2% in the U.S. last month and is running at 8.1% in Russia.This week, Bloomberg reporters on two continents share how and why workers are slow to return to the office, factory and field. First, New York-based economics reporter Jill Shah explains the mystery behind the U.S. labor market, which at once has millions of unemployed and as many as 11 million openings. A few of the reasons? Some are waiting to land a remote job, others can't find childcare--and at least a few are trying to make a living trading cryptocurrency. Meantime, Moscow-based reporter Áine Quinn finds Russia's labor shortage is more easily explained. Many migrant workers from Central Asia left during the pandemic and didn't return, while the nation's high infection and death rates has many Russians staying home. Finally, Stephanie Flanders discusses the labor shortage's lasting effects with Jason Furman, a professor of the practice of economic policy at Harvard University. History tells us that many long-term unemployed will see their skills erode, leaving them at a competitive disadvantage, Furman says. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As if controlling spiraling inflation wasn’t enough to worry about, the world’s central bankers are under increasing pressure to help solve climate change, income inequality and myriad other societal ills. What’s more, elected officials in some nations are trying to exert more power over bankers for political ends.Stephanie Flanders debates the proper role of a central banker with three esteemed women economists, Isabel Schnabel of the European Central Bank, Carmen Reinhart of the World Bank and Minouche Shafik of the London School of Economics and Political Science. While bankers can’t be the “white knight” who rushes in to save the world from global warming or income inequality, they can use their bully pulpit to prod slow-moving politicians to act, Shafik says. Schnabel goes a step further, arguing that tough talk alone won’t suffice, and that central bankers should use what economic levers they have available to advance important causes.Of the three economists, Reinhart raised the most concern about inflation, currently running at an annual rate of 5.4% in the U.S. and 4.1% in the euro area. Yes, the world needs to address the climate crisis, she says, but nothing will stop the green economy faster than high prices, which may lead to tighter monetary policies and a steep drop in financing in developing nations.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

More than a decade after the U.S. subprime crisis sparked the Great Recession, the threat of default at giant property developer Evergrande is raising the prospect that ghost towns of unoccupied homes could trigger a China property slump. On this week’s podcast, Hong Kong-based economics reporter Tom Hancock visits Evergrande to see how the company is trying to raise money and avoid default, including by trying to sell its headquarters. Guest host Tom Orlik delves into the issues with Rhodium Group Director Logan Wright and Bloomberg economist David Qu, a former financial stability regulator at the People’s Bank of China.And finally, with Halloween just around the corner, Orlik ponders the scariest risks to the global economy with three Bloomberg economists: Anna Wong in Washington, Dan Hanson in London and Ziad Daoud in Dubai. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Central bankers are in a precarious spot in this chaotic pandemic economy. U.S. and U.K. consumers are grousing about rising prices and want some relief. But if government officials give it to them by raising interest rates, they may set back the recovery. It wouldn’t be the first time an errant move by a central bank triggered a recession.This week, Stephanie Flanders helps listeners navigate the perils of monetary policy with David Wilcox, Bloomberg’s director of U.S. economic research, and Jamie Rush, Bloomberg's chief European economist. Wilcox, who formerly directed the U.S. Federal Reserve’s research division, explains why the central bank is more worried that inflation will run too low over the long term, and less worried about the current 5.4% annual rate. Meanwhile, Rush argues that the Bank of England “lost its nerve” and is taking too aggressive an approach in battling price increases. And, in a dispatch from Brazil, reporter Maria Eloisa Capurro shares why a new mobile payment app called Pix has overtaken the nation of 213 million people faster than expected, with everyone from small business owners to panhandlers accepting it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An old debate in economic circles is whether Europe’s strong safety net and worker protections are preferable to America’s more company-friendly labor rules. Now this classic argument is getting a fresh look, as economies on both sides of the Atlantic bounce back from pandemic work-stoppages. The U.K. and many euro-area nations adopted generous furlough programs that subsidized worker wages after Covid-19 halted business, and consequently kept workers on payrolls. The U.S., meantime, allowed companies to fire employees and then compensated the newly jobless workers with unemployment insurance payments.This week Stephanomics podcast, Bloomberg reporters Carolynn Look in Frankfurt and Reade Pickert in Washington share the ups and downs of the European and American approaches to pandemic worker relief. By one measure, Europe’s furlough strategy proved superior: the euro area’s unemployment rate peaked at 8.6% last year, far lower than the U.S.’s 14.8% high. Finally, Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute for International Economics shares with Stephanie Flanders why he prefers the euro area’s approach. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Breakthrough, a new series from the Prognosis podcast, we explore how the pandemic is changing our understanding of healthcare and medicine. We start with an examination of long Covid, a mysterious new illness that has stumped doctors attempting to treat symptoms that last for months and potentially years. It has changed the way hospitals work and forced healthcare officials to prepare for the next pandemic. Covid has also opened the door to revolutionary technology: messenger RNA vaccines. It’s a technology that never could have been proven so quickly outside the crucible of that first pandemic year, 2020, and it holds big implications for the future of medicine. Breakthrough launches on Oct. 19. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, more than 60 container ships sat anchored off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, waiting for their chance to unload as makers of everything from board games to bicycles sweat the looming holiday season. How did the world’s supply chains get so snarled? In the first episode of the new season of Stephanomics, reporters, manufacturers and economists across three continents explain the myriad problems plaguing shippers and offer a sobering prediction for the near future.First, Enda Curran, Bloomberg’s chief economics correspondent in Asia, takes us to Hong Kong, where a coffee machine manufacturer must wait up to nine months for key electronic components to arrive. Meanwhile, the cost of moving one container from Asia to the U.S. has risen from $2,000 at the start of the pandemic to $20,000. Next, U.K.-based economy reporter Lizzy Burden shares why one of the world’s most advanced economies could find itself with a shortage of fuel and food this winter, a problem exacerbated by Brexit and new rules on worker visas.Finally, Stephanie Flanders gets a taste of how U.S. restaurants are coping with a shortage of both supplies and waiters. Celebrity restaurateur Willie Degel and HSBC trade economist Shanella Rajanayagam explain why supply shortages haven’t improved despite the accelerating reopening of the global economy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Federal Reserve is theoretically above the fray in Washington, but in these hyperpartisan times both Democrats and Republicans are keen to keep the chair's seat in their camp. As a result, President Joe Biden has a tough decision to make this fall in whether to retain the central bank's current chair, Jerome Powell, who happens to be a Republican. On this week's podcast, host Stephanie Flanders delves into Biden's options with Bloomberg Fed reporters Craig Torres and Rich Miller. Also on this week's episode, Bloomberg senior editor Brendan Murray cruises the River Thames to share how the Port of London, once the world's busiest, is regaining some of its past glory. And, Zurich-based economics reporter Catherine Bosley, Dublin-based reporter Peter Flanagan and Dublin bureau chief Morwenna Coniam explain why European tax havens are so stressed over a proposed global minimum corporate tax rate.That U.S. politicians are debating Powell's fate may be a bit perplexing, given his fans in both parties and that many contend he did a good job steering the economy through the first 18 months or the pandemic. Still, some progressives fault him for being too lax in regulating Wall Street and not vocal enough when it comes to income inequality and Black unemployment. If Biden sticks with Powell, it would be another signal that he's serious about bipartisanship. One possible maneuver discussed on this podcast: keep Powell in place, but fill three other board seats with candidates more to the left's liking. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the not-too-distant future, every time you buy a cup of coffee, someone somewhere might know about it. That’s an unnerving prospect as private companies and central banks experiment with digital currencies. On this week’s podcast, host Stephanie Flanders explores the promising and disconcerting future of Bitcoin and its brethren with Cornell University Senior Professor of Trade Policy Eswar Prasad, author of the forthcoming book “The Future of Money: How the Digital Revolution is Transforming Currencies and Finance.”Also on this week’s episode, Singapore-based economics reporter Michelle Jamrisko and Hong Kong-based economist Chang Shu explain how low fertility rates in China and elsewhere in Asia are imperiling economies there. And Madrid-based economics reporter Jeannette Neumann visits Valencia to show how Spain and France are trying to help small businesses emerge from the pandemic intact. Digital currencies, including cryptocurrencies, pose a “fundamental threat” to central banks around the world because they cut banks out of the picture, Prasad said. Governments are developing their own digital currencies, which could give payment systems extra credibility and boost consumer confidence. But Prasad, a leading expert in this arena, warned that a significant downside to adoption will be privacy: Banks will be monitoring currencies for illicit use and “anything digital is going to be traceable.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Criticism from the right regarding U.S. government aid to unemployed workers has intensified of late, with governors in some Republican-leaning states putting an early end to the extra $300 in weekly payments. Their stated intention was that more jobless Americans would look for work if they can’t count on the extra cash. But for some workers—especially parents with young children—barriers to re-entering the labor force remain, and the loss of those additional dollars is adding to their problems. On this week’s podcast, Bloomberg economics reporter Olivia Rockeman explains how a lack of childcare options is keeping many women out of the job market. Rather than abusing government aid, many came to rely on the payments while they searched for suitable employment. The U.S. economy had a record 9.2 million open jobs in May, and getting many of those positions filled will require helping working parents find someone to watch their kids. In a second segment, guest host and Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik explores the details and likely effects of President Joe Biden’s sweeping order aimed at promoting competition, with input from reporter Anna Edgerton and University of Tennessee College of Law Professor Maurice Stucke.Finally, Vietnam-based economics reporter Nguyen Uyen explains why thousands of workers in the Asian export hub are sleeping on factory floors to keep production going during a Covid-19 surge.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.