Thinkers & Ideas

In After the Spike: Population, Progress, and the Case for People, Dean Spears and Michael Geruso argue that the defining demographic risk of this century is global depopulation.Spears and Geruso are both professors at the University of Texas at Austin, focusing on economic demography and development economics. In their new book, they explore the trend of falling birth rates, how it threatens human progress, and what actions may reverse this trend.In their conversation with Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, they discuss projections for global depopulation, why advances in AI and robotics will not replace humans, why fewer people may not be good for the planet, and what the implications of all this are for business leaders.Key topics discussed:01:06 | Projected global population levels06:11 | The impact of depopulation11:00 | The potential for AI and robotics to replace humans17:00 | The environmental implications of depopulation21:24 | Potential solutions to falling birth rates26:02 | Implications for business leaders28:26 | Reasons to remain hopefulAdditional inspirations from Dean Spears:Air: Pollution, Climate Change and India's Choice Between Policy and Pretence (Harper Collins Publishers India, 2019)Where India Goes: Abandoned Toilets, Stunted Development and the Costs of Caste, co-authored by Diane Coffey (Harper Collins Publishers India, 2017)

Carl Benedikt Frey, an Associate Professor of AI & Work at the University of Oxford, dives into the intricate relationship between technology and progress. He discusses the fragility of advancement, emphasizing how it relies on institutional flexibility rather than just innovation. Frey explores the balance between decentralized exploration and centralized scaling, revealing how successful firms can hinder progress. He also shares insights on overcoming hurdles in AI development and why broader access to these technologies could spark new innovations.

Toby Stuart, the Leo Helzel Chair in Entrepreneurship and Innovation at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business, explores the profound effects of social status in his enlightening conversation. He discusses how small initial differences in social standing can lead to significant disparities in influence and trust. The persistence of the status system, despite skepticism towards elites, is scrutinized, along with the potential of AI to reshape these dynamics. Stuart also addresses the downsides of high social status and the complexities of navigating these societal hierarchies.

Sangeet Paul Choudary, founder of Platformation Labs and AI expert, discusses how AI redefines work and organizational dynamics. He reveals that AI won't just replace jobs but will enhance coordination within companies. Choudary explains the shift towards a modular economy and the importance of unique value propositions. He also emphasizes crafting business strategies that leverage AI's strengths, advocating for effective management of complex information to gain a competitive edge in a rapidly evolving market.

Hal Brands, a distinguished professor and senior fellow, explores crucial geopolitical themes. He argues that the 20th and 21st centuries are defined by Eurasian dynamics, shifting focus from American dominance. Brands dissects the Cold War's legacy, comparing past power rivalries to today's nuanced challenges, especially involving China and Taiwan. He emphasizes the impact of technology on global relations and analyzes how businesses can navigate increased geopolitical tensions. With insights on future prospects, he balances optimism with realism regarding international stability.

Diane Coyle, a leading expert in productivity and public policy, joins Nikolaus Lang to challenge the traditional reliance on GDP as a measure of economic success. She discusses how GDP fails to account for digital services and the value of immaterial goods. Coyle proposes alternative metrics like inclusive wealth and the happiness index, advocating for a broader understanding of progress. She emphasizes the critical need for businesses to adapt their value creation strategies to reflect today’s complex economic realities.

In Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, Edward Fishman argues that the nature of international power has fundamentally shifted from military might to economic statecraft.Fishman is a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and an adjunct professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia. Previously, he served at the US State Department, leading work on economic sanctions. In his new book, he examines how governments—particularly the US’s—are increasingly using financial tools, regulatory measures, and targeted sanctions to shape international relations, secure strategic advantages, and resolve conflicts.In his conversation with Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, he discusses the history of sanctions, how the US came to wield them so powerfully, how diplomatic back channels are navigated in applying them—and what is important for making them effective in enforcing the desired governance changes.Key topics discussed: 02:05 | The history of chokepoints and US dominance over them08:45 | The role of businesses in economic diplomacy12:17 | Navigating diplomatic back channels15:32 | The role of technology and export controls19:45 | Oil price caps as an innovation in sanctions design23:10 | The effectiveness of sanctions in enforcing governance changes27:44 | On the origins of this bookAdditional inspirations from Edward Fishman:Foreign Affairs: How Trump Could Dethrone the Dollar (April 8, 2025)

In There's Nothing Like This: The Strategic Genius of Taylor Swift, Kevin Evers examines the singer-songwriter's remarkable career success from a business strategy perspective.Evers is a senior editor at Harvard Business Review, where he has edited bestselling and award-winning books on high performance, creativity, innovation, digital disruption, marketing, and strategy.In discussion with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, they cover the scale and longevity of Swift's success, the strategic moves and innovations that have driven her rise and staying power, her ability to reinvent herself and connect with fans in new ways, and lessons for strategists and companies.

Matthew Weinzierl, a Harvard Business School professor specializing in the economics of space, teams up with Brendan Rosseau, Blue Origin's strategy manager. They delve into the evolving dynamics of the space economy, emphasizing the shift from government dominance to private market innovation. The conversation navigates crucial topics like space debris, asteroid mining potential, and the impact of geopolitics. They also highlight the growing interest among students in commercial space careers, sparking inspiration for the next generation of explorers.

In The Corporation in the Twenty-First Century: Why (Almost) Everything We Are Told About Business Is Wrong, John Kay provides a novel perspective on the evolution of the contemporary corporation.One of the UK’s leading economists, Kay is a fellow of St John’s College, Oxford. He was the first dean of Oxford’s Saïd Business School and has held chairs at London Business School, the University of Oxford, and the London School of Economics and director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.In his conversation with Martin Reeves, chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Kay discusses the essence of the modern corporation, the changing relationship of capital and labour, the gap between the our historic concept of the corporation and the current reality and the forces that have and will further shape the corporation including sustainability, geopolitics, and technology.Key topics discussed: 01:56 | The essence of a 21st century corporation05:53 | The changing roles of workers and capital12:26 | Limits to corporate scale16:00 | Forces that will shape the future of corporations sustainability, geopolitics, technology21:50 | The impact of AI on the nature of the corporation24:12 | Implications for managersAdditional inspirations from John Kay:Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers (W.W. Norton & Company, 2020)The Long and the Short of It: A guide to finance and investment for normally intelligent people who aren’t in the industry (IPS - Profile Books, 2016)Other People's Money: The Real Business of Finance (PublicAffairs, 2015)Obliquity: Why Our Goals Are Best Achieved Indirectly (Profile Books GB, 2011)