Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Texas has fired the first shots of the redistricting war of 2025, so Henry's back with a rant for all who are still a tad confused, either by the controversy as it stands and/or where it's headed now that other states are drafting their own battle plans. Tune in for a detailed analysis of various states' statutes and cartographic reserves ahead of potential gerrymanders; essential data inputs to make sense of President Trump's approval rating; and a close look at the races that will determine control of that other legislative chamber.

A decade has passed since Donald Trump rode down the golden escalator to initiate a movement to make America great again, but conflicts within the coalition emerge like clockwork, proving that a definitive interpretation remains elusive. Is MAGA simply the net effect of Donald Trump's musings and maneuvers? Or is there a core ideology that successors carry on when Trump exits and the realignment settles? Josh Hammer joins Henry today to answer these big-picture questions and to propose the essential intermediate-term considerations.

Depending on who's in power, blatantly partisan redistricting may be derided as the ultimate dirty ploy or defended as a practical measure to cultivate fairer representation. The recent effort to carve out a few more safe Republican districts in Texas has set off blue state governors, with some preparing to "go nuclear." To help get our bearings amid proliferation threats, Henry brings back Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball for a deep assessment of how an escalating redistricting war might play out. Plus, they take note of a handful of new Senate contestants that might shake up the races in key swing states.

The president's approval rating is down some, and given the amount on his plate this month, it's hard to pin down exactly what's driving it. Today, Henry considers the effects of the piling matters of import, including lingering interest in the Jeffrey Epstein case, the "One Big Beautiful Bill," deportations, and Trump's fight with the Federal Reserve; he breaks down the balancing act of appeals to the political base against converts and independents, and puts the approval rating numbers in context of their midterm implications. Additionally, he examines the latest fundraising numbers to provide a glimpse into how some congressional races are developing. Beyond the Polls is off next week, but we'll be back in early August!

While we all got a glimpse of that fateful day in rural Pennsylvania a year ago, a relative few actually witnessed it—Butler is not, after all, the kind of town most take time to visit. But reporter Salena Zito not only found herself there that day, but close enough to feel the velocity of the assassin's bullets. She joins Henry to discuss the event and what it reveals about the character of President Trump, as illuminated in her best-selling, brand-new book: Butler: The Untold Story of the Near Assassination of Donald Trump and the Fight for America's Heartland.

Following the stunning defeat in November, there's been no shortage of speculation on the tough road ahead for Democrats, but to get a clearer sense of that camp's prospects, one would do well to chat with a member who's stuck it out through the party's past ups and downs. Michael Tomasky, Editor of The New Republic and Democracy: A Journal of Ideas, joins Henry today to discuss the Liberal/Progressive divide and the challenge of corralling the constituencies, all in the context of a party with a long history and teeming with ambitious plans for the future.

We're on theme this week! As Americans head toward the celebration of another free and independent trip around the sun, Henry sits down with AEI's Karlyn Bowman to discuss the latest findings on how citizens of different stripes feel about their country and their sentiments about being Americans, along with their handling of flags and familiarity with our founding documents. Happy Independence Day to all!

Reports about tensions within MAGA-world might give the impression that a unified whole is finally cracking up, but Henry and Matthew Continetti know better than to conflate a political party with its reigning faction. The duo takes us through the last century of rightward squabbles, from the early days of rudderless reaction to the formation of movement conservatism, and on to Donald Trump's fateful ride down the escalator through to the present. Tune in for a detailed account of how the Republican Party's constituent parts formed, with considerations on how they might manage to cohere in the future. And for those interested in diving deeper, be sure to read each author's indispensable books on the topics discussed: - The Right: The Hundred-Year War for American Conservatism (Continetti)-  The Working Class Republican: Ronald Reagan and the Return of Blue-Collar Conservatism (Olsen)

As we approach the summer, it appears that the world is retaking the initiative after months of trying to keep up with Donald Trump. Henry, going solo this week, starts by diving into Trump's latest favorability ratings and the generic congressional ballot, putting them into context with past election cycles. Then, he looks into polling on the news of urban unrest, strikes in the Middle East, and New York City's Mayoral Democratic primary to give us a sense of how events can stir the waters and dash all hopes for smooth sailing.

It's the Henry & Harry Happy Hour this week, as CNN's Harry Enten drops in with his irrepressible pizzazz to talk political data. First, the two discuss Harry's findings on the dramatic swing of immigrant citizens' growing hawkishness on illegal immigration. There's some chatter on Trump's abiding approval ratings and speculation on how events (from unrest in LA to elections in NY and NJ) will determine the best course for the parties. Then the gents consider the qualities that make a pro in their line of work. And, naturally, there's some speculation on the upcoming Bills season from a fella who bleeds red, white, and royal blue.