Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

We're on theme this week! As Americans head toward the celebration of another free and independent trip around the sun, Henry sits down with AEI's Karlyn Bowman to discuss the latest findings on how citizens of different stripes feel about their country and their sentiments about being Americans, along with their handling of flags and familiarity with our founding documents. Happy Independence Day to all!

Reports about tensions within MAGA-world might give the impression that a unified whole is finally cracking up, but Henry and Matthew Continetti know better than to conflate a political party with its reigning faction. The duo takes us through the last century of rightward squabbles, from the early days of rudderless reaction to the formation of movement conservatism, and on to Donald Trump's fateful ride down the escalator through to the present. Tune in for a detailed account of how the Republican Party's constituent parts formed, with considerations on how they might manage to cohere in the future. And for those interested in diving deeper, be sure to read each author's indispensable books on the topics discussed: - The Right: The Hundred-Year War for American Conservatism (Continetti)-  The Working Class Republican: Ronald Reagan and the Return of Blue-Collar Conservatism (Olsen)

As we approach the summer, it appears that the world is retaking the initiative after months of trying to keep up with Donald Trump. Henry, going solo this week, starts by diving into Trump's latest favorability ratings and the generic congressional ballot, putting them into context with past election cycles. Then, he looks into polling on the news of urban unrest, strikes in the Middle East, and New York City's Mayoral Democratic primary to give us a sense of how events can stir the waters and dash all hopes for smooth sailing.

It's the Henry & Harry Happy Hour this week, as CNN's Harry Enten drops in with his irrepressible pizzazz to talk political data. First, the two discuss Harry's findings on the dramatic swing of immigrant citizens' growing hawkishness on illegal immigration. There's some chatter on Trump's abiding approval ratings and speculation on how events (from unrest in LA to elections in NY and NJ) will determine the best course for the parties. Then the gents consider the qualities that make a pro in their line of work. And, naturally, there's some speculation on the upcoming Bills season from a fella who bleeds red, white, and royal blue.

We're back stateside with a primary election! Whatever you want to call this race, voters in New Jersey will take to the polls on Tuesday to select the nominees for their next governor. While Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli looks like a safe bet after landing Donald Trump's endorsement, six Democrats are still duking it out to win over constituents who want to see a fighter on the ticket. Matthew Klein of the Cook Political Report joins Henry to brief us on the issues on the table and the personalities in the ring.

Krystoff Mularczyk joins Henry ahead of the second round of Poland's presidential election on June 1st. Krystoff explains the history of the country's top parties, Civic Platform and Law and Justice, their development out of Solidarity, and how their break has devolved into the bitter fight before us. We also learn about the leading candidates, Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, along with a few dark horses worth watching. And if political dirty tricks get you excited — or if you'll find some relief in knowing it doesn't just happen to us — this one's for you.

Henry's back with an all-rant episode to assess a couple of significant developments that party leaders ought to take notice of. First, he dives into the movements of President Trump's approval numbers over the past seven weeks to parse out what voters are truly reacting to. Then we're brought along for a deep analysis of Catalist's comprehensive "What Happened in 2024" report to see how recent voter behavior has thwarted long-held projections for the electorate's subgroups.

Romanian elections don't typically generate much excitement with an American audience, but Călin Georgescu's sudden rise, the annulment of last year’s vote, and the ban on his running in this year’s election grabbed our attention in this topsy-turvy decade of near-daily surprises. With the final round of 2025's election set for Sunday, Remus Stefureac, CEO of INSCOP Research, joins Henry today to discuss the scandals surrounding last year's canceled presidential race, the leading candidates, nationalist George Simion and independent Nicușor Dan, the circumstances in parliament, the Romanian diaspora variable, and economic and foreign policy considerations that are driving (and expected to complicate) the push for change. And, of course, we hear about INSCOP's polling ahead of this weekend's vote. 

In this insightful conversation, Steve Kornacki, the national political correspondent for NBC News renowned for his data-driven analysis, dives into the shifting political landscape. He examines Trump's fluctuating approval ratings and the challenges Republicans face in retaining young and diverse voters. Kornacki also discusses Gen Z's political divide, emphasizing how gender gaps impact their perceptions of Trump. With engaging anecdotes from the sports world, he creatively connects voting behavior to personal experiences, all while sharing predictions for the upcoming Preakness.

Ever wonder how Beltway insiders assess which congressional seats are potential flips, and therefore worth a cash infusion?  Since the late 1990s, a favorite tool for pros has been the Cook Political Report's PVI — the Partisan Voter Index. Today, Henry catches up with Dave Wasserman to look into how the PVI is calculated and to help us understand what numbers mean; they review earlier reports to understand how the country trended toward partisan gridlock over the years, and consider how Donald Trump's favorability numbers come Labor Day 2026 will influence which districts election committees will consider within reach (and which beleaguered incumbents will be wise to consider scorching earth).