Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

It's the Henry & Harry Happy Hour this week, as CNN's Harry Enten drops in with his irrepressible pizzazz to talk political data. First, the two discuss Harry's findings on the dramatic swing of immigrant citizens' growing hawkishness on illegal immigration. There's some chatter on Trump's abiding approval ratings and speculation on how events (from unrest in LA to elections in NY and NJ) will determine the best course for the parties. Then the gents consider the qualities that make a pro in their line of work. And, naturally, there's some speculation on the upcoming Bills season from a fella who bleeds red, white, and royal blue.

We're back stateside with a primary election! Whatever you want to call this race, voters in New Jersey will take to the polls on Tuesday to select the nominees for their next governor. While Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli looks like a safe bet after landing Donald Trump's endorsement, six Democrats are still duking it out to win over constituents who want to see a fighter on the ticket. Matthew Klein of the Cook Political Report joins Henry to brief us on the issues on the table and the personalities in the ring.

Krystoff Mularczyk joins Henry ahead of the second round of Poland's presidential election on June 1st. Krystoff explains the history of the country's top parties, Civic Platform and Law and Justice, their development out of Solidarity, and how their break has devolved into the bitter fight before us. We also learn about the leading candidates, Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, along with a few dark horses worth watching. And if political dirty tricks get you excited — or if you'll find some relief in knowing it doesn't just happen to us — this one's for you.

Henry's back with an all-rant episode to assess a couple of significant developments that party leaders ought to take notice of. First, he dives into the movements of President Trump's approval numbers over the past seven weeks to parse out what voters are truly reacting to. Then we're brought along for a deep analysis of Catalist's comprehensive "What Happened in 2024" report to see how recent voter behavior has thwarted long-held projections for the electorate's subgroups.

Romanian elections don't typically generate much excitement with an American audience, but Călin Georgescu's sudden rise, the annulment of last year’s vote, and the ban on his running in this year’s election grabbed our attention in this topsy-turvy decade of near-daily surprises. With the final round of 2025's election set for Sunday, Remus Stefureac, CEO of INSCOP Research, joins Henry today to discuss the scandals surrounding last year's canceled presidential race, the leading candidates, nationalist George Simion and independent Nicușor Dan, the circumstances in parliament, the Romanian diaspora variable, and economic and foreign policy considerations that are driving (and expected to complicate) the push for change. And, of course, we hear about INSCOP's polling ahead of this weekend's vote. 

In this insightful conversation, Steve Kornacki, the national political correspondent for NBC News renowned for his data-driven analysis, dives into the shifting political landscape. He examines Trump's fluctuating approval ratings and the challenges Republicans face in retaining young and diverse voters. Kornacki also discusses Gen Z's political divide, emphasizing how gender gaps impact their perceptions of Trump. With engaging anecdotes from the sports world, he creatively connects voting behavior to personal experiences, all while sharing predictions for the upcoming Preakness.

Ever wonder how Beltway insiders assess which congressional seats are potential flips, and therefore worth a cash infusion?  Since the late 1990s, a favorite tool for pros has been the Cook Political Report's PVI — the Partisan Voter Index. Today, Henry catches up with Dave Wasserman to look into how the PVI is calculated and to help us understand what numbers mean; they review earlier reports to understand how the country trended toward partisan gridlock over the years, and consider how Donald Trump's favorability numbers come Labor Day 2026 will influence which districts election committees will consider within reach (and which beleaguered incumbents will be wise to consider scorching earth).

When President Trump started singing a song about the most beautiful word in the English language, Pierre Polievre's march to 24 Sussex stalled. It's now a safe bet that Mark Carney will keep his job as prime minister after Monday's election, but it's unclear how he'll keep his expanded Liberal coalition happy in the years to come. Today, Henry sits down with Sean Speer of The Hub to discuss the sudden turn of fortune for Canada's top two parties. Among other things, they take a close look at the consolidation efforts under both leaders, wonder what's to be done with Quebec, and consider what the feuding forces of progressivism and working-class populism will mean for the future of our neighbors to the north.

In an era when American politics closely resembles a WWE cage match, strength and flair go a long way. That's why Navin Nayak of the Center for American Progress's Action Fund joins Henry to explain why his party is on the ropes. Navin argues that polished messaging and ideological extrapolation don't cut it in the digital media landscape. Voters like a confrontation, so to generate attention the Democrats will need to take a page from the Bernie/AOC tag team and start making a scene.

Donald Trump is many things to many people, but the majority who put him back in the White House generally shared confidence in his ability to stabilize the economy after four years under Joe Biden. Ahead of Trump's early April tariff declaration, Kristen Soltis Anderson's team at Echelon Insights conducted their monthly Verified Voter Omnibus survey and keyed in on the electorate's views of the president's favorite word and his apex predator instincts applied to global exchange. The duo also delves into the Republican Party's Freedom Conservatism counterweight to consider who's locked in with whom.