Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

One consolation of defeat is that it provides an opportunity to adapt to reality. Victors, on the other hand, tend to get lost in the high. Just a week before the Democratic Party's landslide last Tuesday,  Simon Bazelon released the "Deciding to Win" report in the hopes of persuading liberal elites that they're alienating moderates within their traditional ranks. While the 70-page fact sheet has not been especially well-received on Bluesky, Simon gets a warm welcome from Henry, friend of political data analysts all. The duo discusses the party's liberal slide since 2012 and what the "rising American electorate" thinks of it. Tune in for a detailed chat on winning elections in a country where policy trumps personality.

The autopsy is in: Republicans were slaughtered. Henry's on a rant this week, and he's brought his scalpel to supply surgical analysis of the election results for the statewide races in Virginia and New Jersey, the mayoral melee in New York City, and even smaller items like the redistricting proposition in California. Henry surveys the big night for Democrats, revealing the extent to which it bodes well for the party looking to take back a federal branch or two in the coming years. Tune in to understand what Tuesday's route means for those who bleed dark blue or bright red, along with those who lean more lightly.

They say "Virginia is for Lovers," but modest observers would hardly fail to notice that the state has developed a reputation for regularized breaks with whichever party is running things in nearby Washington, D.C. Old Dominion residents Henry and J. Miles Coleman of UVA's Center for Politics discuss the Republicans' chances of holding on in an election made wild by an especially surprising October. Plus, the two look North for a view of the face-off between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli; and stay tuned to the end for a couple of obscure races to keep an eye on. Happy Election Day, everybody!

Barring an unfathomable election day surprise, the thirty-four-year-old Zohran Mamdani will be moving into New York City's Gracie Mansion in January. The Democratic Socialist has made extraordinary promises to the citizens of the nation's largest city, and it's about time to start weighing the implications. To that end, Henry sits down with E.J. McMahon of the Manhattan Institute. The two discuss the executive powers of the office itself, along with the various bodies (from the city council to the state house and up to the White House) that will either help or hinder the frontrunner's grand plans.

Listeners of this podcast have surely spent an election day evening glued to a screen as they watched results trickle in. But have you ever wondered how those results are disseminated? Or how races are called ahead of the final count? To get us up to speed on the process, Henry chats with Michael Prusser and Geoffrey Skelley of the preeminent election results provider, Decision Desk HQ. Tune in for a fascinating discussion on how data-driven political animals work around the clock to get you the right election results faster than ever — and stay tuned til the end if you're interested in what experts will be looking for as votes come in from Virginia and New Jersey.

We're one week into the government shutdown, and every day it remains thus Democrats have reason to fear what OMB Director Russ "The Reaper" Vought is planning. This is only the latest development that has conservatives optimistic about the prospects of an American restoration. To that end, Henry chats with Eric Teetsel, CEO of the Center for Renewing America. Eric explains the CRA's founding under Vought in 2021 and what they're up to today, now that the MAGA movement has its people back in the White House.

Federal employees may be out of the office indefinitely, but politics breaks for no one in America. So Henry is back with a rant to keep us up on the unsettled terrain that partisans are clamouring over. He looks into how the government shutdown blame game might play out; he dives into the latest Economist/YouGov public opinion data to disentangle the issues that animate partisans and moderates; and then leaves the drama of Washington aside to check in on the approaching races in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City.

The great trouble with contemporary polling comes down to drawing a representative analysis from one-word responses. It's not just polling sceptics that have noticed this limitation, which is why Scott Rasmussen of the Napolitan Institute teamed up with Yasmin Green, CEO of Google AI incubator Jigsaw, to create the We the People project ahead of our nation's 250th birthday. The initiative incorporates chatbot technology to draw Americans from all 435 congressional districts into a conversation that allows them to voice their nuanced takes on American politics and to add substance to their stances.  Henry sits down with the duo to hear more about the just-launched program to hear more about the exciting program and the good news that has emerged from their early findings.

If you've ever been of the habit this time of year to watch primetime professional football, you will have certainly encountered today's guest, Michele Tafoya. What you may not have known was that she was an astute observer of American politics. Now, with the NBC Sunday Night Football days behind her, Michele hosts her own podcast to discuss the matters she once had to keep off the field. Michele sat down with Henry to discuss her political awakening and conversion to conservatism; her frustrations with what the DFL has done to her beloved Minnesota; and the nudges she receives to throw her hat in the ring as a candidate.

The game has changed, and it's time to throw out the old playbook. So asserts Chris Hayes, host of  MSNBC's "All In with Chris Hayes," in his latest book, The Sirens' Call: How Attention Became the World's Most Endangered Resource. He and Henry sat down on Wednesday to discuss the most fought-after commodity of the Digital Age: attention. They explore how our sleek modern tools have altered the way campaigns are executed, and why the political winners of this century will be those who can wield the gadgets of the future while possessing the ancient charisma that moves the people.