Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

With the midterms approaching, the political map is shifting toward Democrats as independents and less-MAGA Republicans recoil from Donald Trump. The discussion explores Republican messaging failures, House and Senate projections, early voting signals, softening support among Hispanic and other nonwhite voters, and warning signs across the agricultural belt. A Michigan Senate ad offers a glimpse of a sharper swing-state strategy.

Americans are often in a hurry, always looking for ways to save time. Yet back in the olden days, whenever Americans held an election, the public had to wait until every ballot was tallied before an official announcement of the results. Though that remains the method for squeaker contests, election-day reporting outlets strive to stay ahead of the curve wherever possible. Enter the exit pollers. Henry sits down with Joe Lenski, Executive Vice President of the survey research firm SSRS and co-director of The Voter Poll. Joe's here to explain how his team goes about sampling actual ballot-casters so the American people can get quicker (yet still accurate) calls on election night. Plus, keeping predictive power in mind, Henry reverse-engineers the generic ballot from the past three midterm elections to gauge who will win the House tug-of-war in November. And we take in Susan Collins' clever pitch to her Red Sox country voters about Yankee Chuck Schumer's attempts to influence the contest in Maine.Catch Henry's latest PostOpinions piece to see his midterm model. While you're there, subscribe to his weekly newsletter, "Margin of Victory," for invaluable insights every Wednesday.

Jon Lerner, a Republican political pollster and campaign consultant, joins Henry to explore how technology, declining response rates, weighting, voter files, and turnout trends are reshaping political polling. They examine education gaps, mixed-mode surveys, and the unique challenges of states such as Alaska. The conversation also turns to Republican candidates distancing themselves from Trump and three memorable campaign ads.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball and a leading elections forecaster, maps the Senate battleground. They examine toss-ups and vulnerable seats in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Kansas. They also explore how polling models, turnout screens, economic turmoil, and candidate quality could determine control of the chamber.

Erin Covey, House editor at the Cook Political Report and a specialist in congressional races, joins Henry Olsen for a midterm outlook. They examine the House battlefield, Republican messaging, Democratic fundraising, super PAC cash, coordinated spending, and TV ad rates. Covey highlights districts to watch and the election-night results that could reveal which party is on track to control Congress.

Dante Scala, a University of New Hampshire political scientist and leading scholar of Granite State politics, joins the conversation on a pivotal Democratic primary. They examine the Senate succession fight after Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement, Chris Pappas’s challenges, progressive contenders, and the impact of New Hampshire’s changing primary status. They also explore Republican opportunities in the midterms and a sharp nepotism attack ad.

With the primary results in from the most competitive states, we're entering the calm-before-the-storm season of this year's midterm election. But rather than letting their guard down, top election analysts are bracing for another wacky cycle like the one that defied forecasts in 2o22. NBC's chief data analyst, Steve Kornacki, returns to Beyond the Polls to discuss how current conditions resemble those from four years back, and how he braces for the unpredictable before heading into live coverage as ballots pour in.Plus, Henry offers messaging advice for Republican strategists—identifying the target audience and the pitch for staying the course—ahead of the Republican midterm convention coming up on September 9th. He also finds a high vantage point in an Amy Acton ad that shows how the Ohio gubernatorial race could become competitive again. 

South Carolina Republicans are heading back to the voting booth for the Senate runoff to select their nominee. Their choice is between Ralph Norman, a self-described MAGA outsider who has represented the state's Fifth Congressional District since 2017, and Darline Graham, the Trump-endorsed incumbent appointed last month following the sudden passing of her brother Lindsey. For a survey of this sudden showdown in the Swamp State, Henry is joined by Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report. They consider how difficult it may be to call the race, as even in MAGA country, Trump may find his movement prone to rebelliousness. Plus, Henry dives into the Florida primary results, parses this cycle's polling errors, and looks at a Ralph Norman ad asking South Carolinians whether his opponent has anything more than a name.

Florida's political environment has transformed profoundly over the last few decades. Following its mid-decadal redistricting, the state is preparing for an unusually high number of close contests in next week's primary, especially on the Republican side. Peter Schorsh, founder and editor of Florida Politics, joins Henry to forecast the scattered storms hanging above Florida's panhandle (CD-02), Flagler County (CD-7), Tampa Bay (CD-14), the contest among political misfits over the southwestern frontier (CD-19), and the chaotic scramble across the way for redrawn territory in the densely populated South Florida metro area. Plus, Henry breaks down Francesca Hong's narrow loss for statewide office in Wisconsin, and considers what it means for the DSA. And he takes a look at an effective use of AI-generated advertising in Catalina Lauf's run for Byron Donald's Florida House seat. Be sure to sign up for Henry's weekly newsletter, Margin of Victory, for his insights every Wednesday!

The Wisconsin state motto is one word: Forward. And after Tuesday's primary in Michigan, we're reminded again that the progressive left has the momentum in the Democratic Party. To dive into what this left-wing insurgency means for Wisconsin, Henry brings back the Badger State's premier election analyst, Craig Gilbert. Craig explains how Democratic Socialist gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong benefited from opponents' imploded campaigns, moving from fourth (at best) to the top of the field. He and Henry look to the coming general in Wisconsin 3, where Rebecca Cooke is expected to challenge Republican Derrick Van Orden in a rematch. They also consider how the Democrats' leftward lunge may give Tom Tiffany a better shot than previously thought, given his rural House district (Wisconsin 7) and Trump's low approval. Plus, Henry heads to Michigan and beyond to explain that the DSA's moment has come—before imparting some advice to the ambitious within its ranks who might seek the presidency. And, finally, we inspect another ad from Darline Graham, who seems ready to state some positions.  Be sure to sign up for Henry's weekly newsletter, Margin of Victory, for his insights every Wednesday!