Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

When President Trump started singing a song about the most beautiful word in the English language, Pierre Polievre's march to 24 Sussex stalled. It's now a safe bet that Mark Carney will keep his job as prime minister after Monday's election, but it's unclear how he'll keep his expanded Liberal coalition happy in the years to come. Today, Henry sits down with Sean Speer of The Hub to discuss the sudden turn of fortune for Canada's top two parties. Among other things, they take a close look at the consolidation efforts under both leaders, wonder what's to be done with Quebec, and consider what the feuding forces of progressivism and working-class populism will mean for the future of our neighbors to the north.

In an era when American politics closely resembles a WWE cage match, strength and flair go a long way. That's why Navin Nayak of the Center for American Progress's Action Fund joins Henry to explain why his party is on the ropes. Navin argues that polished messaging and ideological extrapolation don't cut it in the digital media landscape. Voters like a confrontation, so to generate attention the Democrats will need to take a page from the Bernie/AOC tag team and start making a scene.

Donald Trump is many things to many people, but the majority who put him back in the White House generally shared confidence in his ability to stabilize the economy after four years under Joe Biden. Ahead of Trump's early April tariff declaration, Kristen Soltis Anderson's team at Echelon Insights conducted their monthly Verified Voter Omnibus survey and keyed in on the electorate's views of the president's favorite word and his apex predator instincts applied to global exchange. The duo also delves into the Republican Party's Freedom Conservatism counterweight to consider who's locked in with whom.

Dive into the aftermath of Trump’s tariffs and their impact on global trade! Explore how these policies shift public opinion and job approval while foreshadowing potential economic turmoil. Discover the complex dynamics of consumer purchasing power amid rising prices and how this influences political sentiment. The discussion also highlights the historical economic shifts since the 90s and their implications for future elections. It’s a riveting analysis of resilience and strategy in a polarized America!

America's dairyland has a springtime supreme court election that is expected to break turnout records. The ostensibly non-partisan race between judges Susan Crawford and Brad Schimel will determine whether liberals maintain control of the state judiciary, and that's grabbed the attention of the national parties. Henry brings back the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert to keep tabs on the big money and the stunning get-out-the-vote effort, along with a deep dive into Wisconsin's recent voting patterns, to give listeners an idea of what to look for as returns come in for this extra-sharp, off-season election.

One hears of our constitutional crisis often enough nowadays that an observer of American politics might wonder what we'll say if the event comes to pass. This week, Henry enlists AEI's Yuval Levin to identify and account for the pent-up tensions in a system designed to restrain ambitious rulers. The duo hammer out the roles of independent agencies in a government limited to three branches; stress test the originally unanticipated dilemma of congressional pliancy; and consult the schematic on the executive's authority over impoundment, rescission, tariffs and treaties.Tune in for a commute-friendly masterclass on Constitutional authority in the era of DOGE and EOs.

Tragedy hit the once-marginalized psephological community last week when FiveThirtyEight closed shop. Henry hosts a celebration of life with two of its top contributors, Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley, to discuss the former outfit's inconceivable achievement of mainstreaming political data journalism. The trio digs into the explosive history of innovative election modeling and explores the lingering unknowns while looking to the future for a field tasked with telling the human story behind complicated quantifications.

Henry and The Cook Political Report's Amy Walter reconvene after Donald Trump's address before Congress. They wonder how Tuesday's performance will play with the voters outside Trump's base who won him the election; consider the risks attendant to his coalition in making moves on Ukraine and tariffs; and think through partisan mandate strategy in a country with a teeter-totter electorate. Plus, they look to 2026 and beyond to speculate on who might help the flat-footed opposition regain its balance.

To have any attachment to conservatism since the Reagan renewal is to have at least a glancing acquaintanceship with the Heritage Foundation. Under its current president, Kevin Roberts, that pivotal institution is shifting gears to settle this century's conservative-populist synthesis. Kevin and Henry sit down to dive into Roberts' new book, Dawn's Early Light: Taking Back Washington to Save America. Along with making the serious case for the promised Golden Age, the two discuss the spiritual war that's facing the country, institutional control burns, and the debate over America the Idea versus America the Nation.

Germany's parliamentary elections will take place on Sunday, and for the first time since the fall of the Third Reich, a nationalist party is a major player. To start, Henry breaks down the rules of the game and assesses the polling for the many parties in the mix. Next, he's joined by Katja Hoyer to discuss the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's stunning rise along with a deep dive into the factions within that will vie for control of Deutschland's now-second largest party. And if you're looking for analysis as the returns come in on Sunday, be sure to check out Henry's live stream which you can watch on X! (You'll find it at @henryolsenEPPC.)Music for this week:Open: Beethoven – Symphony No. 9 (Finale ‘Ode to Joy’), via Spat MusicClose: America the Beautiful — Simon Armitage Music, via MotionArray