Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

A historic Republican collapse sparks a blunt post-election reckoning. The discussion examines Democratic unity, Republican defections, independent voters, and losses in supposedly safe seats. War, immigration, tariffs, and economic pressures emerge as central forces, while both parties confront the breakdown of old political alliances and the challenge of building durable coalitions for 2028.

Midterms are just days away, so it's busy season for everyone in the election prediction biz. This week, there's no rant and no ads; just Henry and a couple of sleep-deprived friends to help you get your bearings ahead of another high-stakes cycle. First up is Sean Patrick Maloney—former U.S. Ambassador to the OECD and the CEO of the Coalition for Prediction Markets. He joins to explain the derivative markets that have shaken up polling. Next, Cook Political's Jessica Taylor surveys the Senate seats swinging in the balance. And lastly, Scott Braddock of The Quorum Report drops in to discuss the uncharacteristically tight races in Texas. Be sure to follow Henry on X to catch his Election Night livestream! We'll be up reporting the returns from poll closures on the Atlantic and remain until the Alaskans have their say.

Patrick Ruffini, founding partner of Republican polling firm Echelon Insights, joins a deep dive into the midterms. They examine polling reliability, recurring errors in the Midwest and Sunbelt, House and Senate forecasts, and why late-survey floods can mislead. They also explore campaign spending, withheld internal polls, generic-ballot gaps, and Ohio’s explosive Ramaswamy-Acton ad battle.

With the midterms looming, early voting and polling point to a daunting night for Republicans. The discussion examines defensive presidential travel, weak messaging despite huge spending, the decisive role of independent voters, and Senate seats slipping from reach. Two ads take center stage: one pitching independent Republicanism in Minnesota, the other tapping rural anxiety over Montana data centers.

With the midterms approaching, the political map is shifting toward Democrats as independents and less-MAGA Republicans recoil from Donald Trump. The discussion explores Republican messaging failures, House and Senate projections, early voting signals, softening support among Hispanic and other nonwhite voters, and warning signs across the agricultural belt. A Michigan Senate ad offers a glimpse of a sharper swing-state strategy.

Americans are often in a hurry, always looking for ways to save time. Yet back in the olden days, whenever Americans held an election, the public had to wait until every ballot was tallied before an official announcement of the results. Though that remains the method for squeaker contests, election-day reporting outlets strive to stay ahead of the curve wherever possible. Enter the exit pollers. Henry sits down with Joe Lenski, Executive Vice President of the survey research firm SSRS and co-director of The Voter Poll. Joe's here to explain how his team goes about sampling actual ballot-casters so the American people can get quicker (yet still accurate) calls on election night. Plus, keeping predictive power in mind, Henry reverse-engineers the generic ballot from the past three midterm elections to gauge who will win the House tug-of-war in November. And we take in Susan Collins' clever pitch to her Red Sox country voters about Yankee Chuck Schumer's attempts to influence the contest in Maine.Catch Henry's latest PostOpinions piece to see his midterm model. While you're there, subscribe to his weekly newsletter, "Margin of Victory," for invaluable insights every Wednesday.

Jon Lerner, a Republican political pollster and campaign consultant, joins Henry to explore how technology, declining response rates, weighting, voter files, and turnout trends are reshaping political polling. They examine education gaps, mixed-mode surveys, and the unique challenges of states such as Alaska. The conversation also turns to Republican candidates distancing themselves from Trump and three memorable campaign ads.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball and a leading elections forecaster, maps the Senate battleground. They examine toss-ups and vulnerable seats in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Kansas. They also explore how polling models, turnout screens, economic turmoil, and candidate quality could determine control of the chamber.

Erin Covey, House editor at the Cook Political Report and a specialist in congressional races, joins Henry Olsen for a midterm outlook. They examine the House battlefield, Republican messaging, Democratic fundraising, super PAC cash, coordinated spending, and TV ad rates. Covey highlights districts to watch and the election-night results that could reveal which party is on track to control Congress.

Dante Scala, a University of New Hampshire political scientist and leading scholar of Granite State politics, joins the conversation on a pivotal Democratic primary. They examine the Senate succession fight after Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement, Chris Pappas’s challenges, progressive contenders, and the impact of New Hampshire’s changing primary status. They also explore Republican opportunities in the midterms and a sharp nepotism attack ad.