Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

The president's approval rating is down some, and given the amount on his plate this month, it's hard to pin down exactly what's driving it. Today, Henry considers the effects of the piling matters of import, including lingering interest in the Jeffrey Epstein case, the "One Big Beautiful Bill," deportations, and Trump's fight with the Federal Reserve; he breaks down the balancing act of appeals to the political base against converts and independents, and puts the approval rating numbers in context of their midterm implications. Additionally, he examines the latest fundraising numbers to provide a glimpse into how some congressional races are developing. Beyond the Polls is off next week, but we'll be back in early August!

While we all got a glimpse of that fateful day in rural Pennsylvania a year ago, a relative few actually witnessed it—Butler is not, after all, the kind of town most take time to visit. But reporter Salena Zito not only found herself there that day, but close enough to feel the velocity of the assassin's bullets. She joins Henry to discuss the event and what it reveals about the character of President Trump, as illuminated in her best-selling, brand-new book: Butler: The Untold Story of the Near Assassination of Donald Trump and the Fight for America's Heartland.

Following the stunning defeat in November, there's been no shortage of speculation on the tough road ahead for Democrats, but to get a clearer sense of that camp's prospects, one would do well to chat with a member who's stuck it out through the party's past ups and downs. Michael Tomasky, Editor of The New Republic and Democracy: A Journal of Ideas, joins Henry today to discuss the Liberal/Progressive divide and the challenge of corralling the constituencies, all in the context of a party with a long history and teeming with ambitious plans for the future.

We're on theme this week! As Americans head toward the celebration of another free and independent trip around the sun, Henry sits down with AEI's Karlyn Bowman to discuss the latest findings on how citizens of different stripes feel about their country and their sentiments about being Americans, along with their handling of flags and familiarity with our founding documents. Happy Independence Day to all!

Reports about tensions within MAGA-world might give the impression that a unified whole is finally cracking up, but Henry and Matthew Continetti know better than to conflate a political party with its reigning faction. The duo takes us through the last century of rightward squabbles, from the early days of rudderless reaction to the formation of movement conservatism, and on to Donald Trump's fateful ride down the escalator through to the present. Tune in for a detailed account of how the Republican Party's constituent parts formed, with considerations on how they might manage to cohere in the future. And for those interested in diving deeper, be sure to read each author's indispensable books on the topics discussed: - The Right: The Hundred-Year War for American Conservatism (Continetti)-  The Working Class Republican: Ronald Reagan and the Return of Blue-Collar Conservatism (Olsen)

As we approach the summer, it appears that the world is retaking the initiative after months of trying to keep up with Donald Trump. Henry, going solo this week, starts by diving into Trump's latest favorability ratings and the generic congressional ballot, putting them into context with past election cycles. Then, he looks into polling on the news of urban unrest, strikes in the Middle East, and New York City's Mayoral Democratic primary to give us a sense of how events can stir the waters and dash all hopes for smooth sailing.

It's the Henry & Harry Happy Hour this week, as CNN's Harry Enten drops in with his irrepressible pizzazz to talk political data. First, the two discuss Harry's findings on the dramatic swing of immigrant citizens' growing hawkishness on illegal immigration. There's some chatter on Trump's abiding approval ratings and speculation on how events (from unrest in LA to elections in NY and NJ) will determine the best course for the parties. Then the gents consider the qualities that make a pro in their line of work. And, naturally, there's some speculation on the upcoming Bills season from a fella who bleeds red, white, and royal blue.

We're back stateside with a primary election! Whatever you want to call this race, voters in New Jersey will take to the polls on Tuesday to select the nominees for their next governor. While Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli looks like a safe bet after landing Donald Trump's endorsement, six Democrats are still duking it out to win over constituents who want to see a fighter on the ticket. Matthew Klein of the Cook Political Report joins Henry to brief us on the issues on the table and the personalities in the ring.

Krystoff Mularczyk joins Henry ahead of the second round of Poland's presidential election on June 1st. Krystoff explains the history of the country's top parties, Civic Platform and Law and Justice, their development out of Solidarity, and how their break has devolved into the bitter fight before us. We also learn about the leading candidates, Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, along with a few dark horses worth watching. And if political dirty tricks get you excited — or if you'll find some relief in knowing it doesn't just happen to us — this one's for you.

Henry's back with an all-rant episode to assess a couple of significant developments that party leaders ought to take notice of. First, he dives into the movements of President Trump's approval numbers over the past seven weeks to parse out what voters are truly reacting to. Then we're brought along for a deep analysis of Catalist's comprehensive "What Happened in 2024" report to see how recent voter behavior has thwarted long-held projections for the electorate's subgroups.