Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante

The storage business as we know it has changed forever. On premises, external storage was once a virtually unlimited and untapped bastion of innovation, VC funding and lucrative exits. Today it is a shadow of its former self and the glory days of storage in the data center will not return.https://lnkd.in/daYA9A5

2020 has acted as a hasty but effective proof of concept for how to digitally transform businesses. CIOs report that generally, technology spending levels have either rebounded or will do so in the near future, setting up what could be a stronger 2021 than we’ve previously reported.https://lnkd.in/d_bhfYA

Cloud computing has been the single most transformative force in IT over the last decade – what will Cloud 2030 look like? As we enter the 2020s, we believe that cloud will become the underpinning of a ubiquitous, intelligent and autonomous resource that will disrupt the operational stacks of virtually every company in all industries.

Remote work has caused CISOs to shift spending priorities toward identity access management, endpoint and cloud security. COVID has been a benefactor to "NextGen" security companies that participate in these sectors. Notably, we believe tactical responses to the coronavirus have resulted in productivity improvements that will create permanent change in the way organizations defend themselves against cyber threats.https://bit.ly/393OP4H

Breaking Analysis: How Snowflake Plans to Fix a Flawed Data ModelSnowflake will not grow into its valuation by simply stealing share from the on-prem data warehouse vendors. Even if it got 100% of the data warehouse business it wouldn’t come close to justifying its market cap. Rather Snowflake must create a new market based on completely changing the way organizations think about monetizing data.

As we watch an historic election unfold before our eyes, we look back at the early days of this millennium and the memorable presidential race of 2000. That decade was defined by 9/11, which permanently re-shaped our thinking. We exited the ’00s at the tail end of a massive financial crisis only to enter the 2010’s with hope, and the momentum of fiscal stimulus, a flat globe, job growth and very importantly, the ascendency of the cloud. Cloud computing, unquestionably powered the innovation engine over the last ten years and the pandemic marks a new era, where adoption of cloud, data and AI have been accelerated by two to three years.. These trends will shape the future of the technology industry and all businesses.

Azure Cloud is the linchpin of Microsoft’s go forward innovation strategy. Big tech came under fire again this week but Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella was not one of those CEOs getting grilled. Unlike Google, Microsoft does not heavily rely on ad revenues. Rather the company’s momentum is steadily building around Azure Cloud which by my estimates is now ~19% of Microsoft’s overall revenues.

The cookie apocalypse is coming. Massive changes in public policy threaten Google's traditional business. The company's response to the DoJ’s antitrust suit should be to double or triple its focus on cloud and edge computing – a multi-trillion dollar opportunity.

As we reported in our last update, tech spending overall continues to be significantly muted relative to 2019. We currently project a 4% to 5% decline in 2020 spending and a tepid 2% increase in 2021. Nonetheless, there are some sector and vendor bright spots in an overall challenging market.

In the most recent September ETR spending survey, CIOs expect a slight sequential improvement in Q4 spending relative to Q3– but still down 4% from Q4 2019. So the picture is still not pretty but not bleak either. Firms are adjusting to the “new abnormal” and are taking positive actions that can be described as a slow thawing of the deep freeze.In this Breaking Analysis we will review fresh survey data from ETR and provide our outlook for both Q4 of 2020 into 2021.We are still holding at our 4-5 percent decline in tech spending for 2020. But we see light at the end of the tunnel – with cautions.