Breaking Analysis with Dave Vellante

When it comes to silicon manufacturing, volume is king. The core issue Intel faces is it has lost the volume game, forever. Incoming CEO Pat Gelsinger faces seemingly difficult decisions. On the one hand, he could take some logical steps to shore up the company’s execution, outsource a portion of its manufacturing & make incremental changes. On the other hand, Gelsinger could make much more dramatic moves, shed its vertically integrated heritage & transform Intel into a leading designer of chips for emerging multi-trillion dollar markets.We believe that Intel actually has no choice. It must create a deep partnership (e.g. JV) with a manufacturer that covets a bigger presence on U.S. soil, outsource production & focus Intel’s resources on design.

In our 2020 predictions post, we said that organizations would slow down experimentation & begin to operationalize digital transformation PoCs this year. We also said that security companies like CrowdStrike and Okta, Inc. were poised to rise above the rest along w/ accelerated cloud migrations. And we predicted the S&P 500 would surpass 3700 in 2020!https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6749707102035472385/

New data suggests that tech spending will be higher than we previously thought for 2021. COVID learnings, a faster than expected vaccine rollout, productivity gains & gain-sharing; along with broad-based cloud adoption, lead us to raise our outlook for next year. We now expect a 3-5% increase in 2021 technology spending, roughly double our previously forecasted growth rate.

The storage business as we know it has changed forever. On premises, external storage was once a virtually unlimited and untapped bastion of innovation, VC funding and lucrative exits. Today it is a shadow of its former self and the glory days of storage in the data center will not return.https://lnkd.in/daYA9A5

2020 has acted as a hasty but effective proof of concept for how to digitally transform businesses. CIOs report that generally, technology spending levels have either rebounded or will do so in the near future, setting up what could be a stronger 2021 than we’ve previously reported.https://lnkd.in/d_bhfYA

Cloud computing has been the single most transformative force in IT over the last decade – what will Cloud 2030 look like? As we enter the 2020s, we believe that cloud will become the underpinning of a ubiquitous, intelligent and autonomous resource that will disrupt the operational stacks of virtually every company in all industries.

Remote work has caused CISOs to shift spending priorities toward identity access management, endpoint and cloud security. COVID has been a benefactor to "NextGen" security companies that participate in these sectors. Notably, we believe tactical responses to the coronavirus have resulted in productivity improvements that will create permanent change in the way organizations defend themselves against cyber threats.https://bit.ly/393OP4H

Breaking Analysis: How Snowflake Plans to Fix a Flawed Data ModelSnowflake will not grow into its valuation by simply stealing share from the on-prem data warehouse vendors. Even if it got 100% of the data warehouse business it wouldn’t come close to justifying its market cap. Rather Snowflake must create a new market based on completely changing the way organizations think about monetizing data.

As we watch an historic election unfold before our eyes, we look back at the early days of this millennium and the memorable presidential race of 2000. That decade was defined by 9/11, which permanently re-shaped our thinking. We exited the ’00s at the tail end of a massive financial crisis only to enter the 2010’s with hope, and the momentum of fiscal stimulus, a flat globe, job growth and very importantly, the ascendency of the cloud. Cloud computing, unquestionably powered the innovation engine over the last ten years and the pandemic marks a new era, where adoption of cloud, data and AI have been accelerated by two to three years.. These trends will shape the future of the technology industry and all businesses.

Azure Cloud is the linchpin of Microsoft’s go forward innovation strategy. Big tech came under fire again this week but Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella was not one of those CEOs getting grilled. Unlike Google, Microsoft does not heavily rely on ad revenues. Rather the company’s momentum is steadily building around Azure Cloud which by my estimates is now ~19% of Microsoft’s overall revenues.