The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast

The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast
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Jul 22, 2023 • 27min

High Rates For 2 Years Would Dramatically Change Housing

Inflation in Canada has been easing, with the current rate standing at 2.8%, the slowest since March 2021 and down from 3.4%. The largest factor contributing to this decline was lower gasoline prices compared to the same period last year, showing a decrease of 21.6%. However, shelter costs have risen by 4.8% year over year, driven by significantly higher mortgage interest costs (up 30.1% from the previous year) and increased rents (up 5.8% from June 2022). Moreover, grocery prices have surged by 9.1% year over year.Analyzing the inflation trends, it has been on a downward trajectory for a year, starting from July 2022 when rates were at 3.75%.  With the overnight rate at 5%, and inflation within the target band of 1-3%, the looming question becomes, does the BOC continue to raise, hold or start to cut? The Bank of Canada estimates inflation to hover around 3% for one year and gradually decrease to 2% by mid-2025, signaling that rates may very well need to remain around 5% for the next 2 years.    This would dramatically alter the housing landscape. In the housing market, housing starts have been fluctuating, with Canadian housing starts rising by 41% to 280k units in June, following a 23% decline in the previous month. Compared to the same month last year, starts were up by 4%. In British Columbia, new housing starts rose significantly by 61% to 66k units in June, showing a 17% increase from June 2022 levels. While there is an overall upward trend in housing starts, they have not fully recovered from the lows observed in mid-2020 and 2022. Additionally, despite the current level of construction, it is not keeping up with population growth.Affordability remains a concern due to high interest rates. Purchasing the average priced GVRD home at $1.2 million with 20% down requires a buyer to have an annual income of $215,000 and carry no debt. This has led many potential buyers into the rental market, driving up rental prices. Canada's average rent reached a new all-time high in June at $2042, with average annual rents increasing by 20% over the last two years. In Vancouver, one-bedroom rents were up by 18% year over year and two-bedroom rents by 14% year over year.Short-term rentals have seen a significant increase, with 4,100 active listings, up by 37% year over year. This surge comes at a time when many people are struggling to find long-term rental accommodations, creating further challenges in the rental market.High interest rates are keeping people in their homes, resulting in limited housing inventory in the immediate future. The cost to build new housing is prohibitive, leading to concerns about affordability. The population continues to grow at a record pace each quarter. As interest rates are expected to remain high for an extended period, more individuals may face financial strain, and many who bought homes in the last five years may no longer qualify for their current properties.No matter what type of housing you are in, looking for, renting, building or selling - it’s a struggle for almost everyone out there.   _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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Jul 15, 2023 • 30min

Canadians Feeling The Pain From Bank Of Canada Rate Hikes

The Bank of Canada (BOC) announced a 0.25% interest rate hike, marking the 10th increase since March 2022 and bringing the overnight rate to 5%, the highest in 22 years! The move comes as the Canadian economy, which has been stronger than expected, is expected to slow down due to the impact of higher interest rates. Although recent inflation rates have eased to 3.4% in Canada and 3% in the United States, the core inflation rate remains at 3-4% and has been more persistent than anticipated. The BOC now forecasts a return to its 2% inflation target in mid-2025, instead of the previously projected 2024.The increase in interest rates has had a significant impact on the bond and mortgage markets. The 5-year bond rate has surged to 4%, the highest since 2007, leading to fixed mortgage rates around 5.2% and variable rates around 5.9%. These rates are the highest in 15 years and have further challenged affordability, with monthly mortgage payments increasing significantly.The sentiment in the housing market has also shifted, as sentiment levels have dropped, resulting in reduced spending and housing demand. The labor market has shown signs of weakening, with the unemployment rate increasing over the past three months, which is the largest increase since 2019.Population growth in Canada has reached a record high of 1.2 million in the last 12 months, with non-permanent residents accounting for 60% of the increase. This has put extreme pressure on the rental market, with high rental rates and landlords resorting to renting out individual beds to meet the demand.In the Toronto market, sales have declined by 7% and inventory has increased by 19%. However, sales are still up 15% year-over-year, with a 20% increase in condo volume. Prices have risen by 2.5% in the last month and 9% in the past four months. The investment condo market has become less attractive for investors, with negative cash flow and decreasing rental returns.Looking at Calgary, the housing market continues to strengthen, with home sales rising 5% month-over-month and setting a record for the month. Sales in Calgary were up approximately 10% year-over-year, particularly in the condo segment, which experienced a 50% surge. Overall inventory is at a 10-year low, leading to increased prices.These developments indicate that the already financially strained marketplace is facing further pressure due to the recent interest rate hike, with talks of additional increases and higher rates for the foreseeable future. The housing and business sectors are likely to experience significant shifts if interest rates remain high for an extended period. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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Jul 8, 2023 • 21min

Vancouver Real Estate Market Update for June 2023

The real estate market experienced notable trends and shifts in June 2023. This episode focuses on key metrics for the month of June. We take a look at total sales, new listings, inventory, the current sales-to-active ratio, and pricing trends. By examining these factors, we gain insights into the current state of the market and can make informed projections for the future.In June, the total sales reached 2,988 units, marking a 21% increase compared to the same month in the previous year. However, sales experienced a significant decline of 14% from the previous month, making it the first decrease in five months. A common theme we see in June is a typical summer slowdown, which was likely exacerbated by a surprise rate hike and the heightened anticipation of another hike the following week. Overall, the total sales were 8.5% below the 10-year average; however this does not reflect the change in pricing we’ve seen so far this year. This downward trend indicates a temporary cooling of the market that we tend to see in the summer months.The Home Price Index (HPI) continued its upward trajectory for the sixth consecutive month, increasing by $15,000 or 1.3% to reach $1,203,000 in June. This milestone marked the first time in 12 months that the HPI surpassed the $1.2 million mark. Throughout 2023, the HPI has experienced a significant increase of $90,400, representing an 8% rise. However, when compared to June 2022, the HPI was down 2.4%, and it currently sits 4% below the peak reached in April 2022. The lagging nature of the HPI suggests that it is essential to examine other metrics for a comprehensive understanding of the market.The median price experienced a decrease of $23,000 to $957,000 in June, marking the first decrease in six months. Similarly, the average price declined by $41,000 to $1,270,000, the first decrease in five months. Projections for the future indicate a flat HPI, with a potential 1% drop by the end of August. The median and average prices are expected to remain stable. However, a rate hike could extend the downward trend. It is worth noting that low inventory remains a significant factor in keeping prices buoyant.The HPI continued to rise, reaching a new milestone, but lagged behind previous year figures and the peak in April 2022, not to mention this is a lagging price indicator. Median and average prices experienced their first decreases in several months. Looking ahead, the market will continue to stabilize, with the HPI remaining flat and a potential 1% drop by the end of August. However, the trajectory may be influenced by external factors such as another rate hike. The foundation of low inventory is likely to support price stability in the coming months despite what we could see from the BoC. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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Jul 1, 2023 • 25min

Canada Growing 7X Faster Than The USA

In recent months, inflation in Canada has shown a downward trend, with the rate dropping from 4.4% to 3.4%, the lowest it has been since June 2021! The decrease can be attributed primarily to a significant drop in gas prices, which have declined by an average of 18%. However, despite this overall decline, several items in the consumer price index (CPI) basket have registered higher prices. Groceries have seen a significant increase of 9%, while rent has risen by 5.7%. The most notable contributor to the year-over-year CPI increase is the surge in mortgage interest costs, which have skyrocketed by 30%. When these self-inflicted mortgage interest costs are excluded, the CPI stands at 2.5% in May, down from 3.7% in April. This is important because if the Bank of Canada (BOC) lowers rates and removes the mortgage interest cost element, it could bring inflation closer to their target. It is anticipated that the June inflation print may be below 3% according to the BOC's forecast from a few months ago.The timing of interest rate drops depends on the BOC's main mandate, which is to control inflation. To lower interest rates, the BOC requires prolonged sub 3% inflation, along with solid GDP growth, a robust labor market, and a rebounding housing market. However, financial markets currently expect the BOC to raise its benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points to 5% at its next meeting on July 12th.Canada has experienced a significant population growth, with an increase of 1.2 million people in the past year as of Q2. This growth is approximately 3X the 10-year average and raises concerns about the sustainability and impact of such rapid population growth. In particular, the growth in non-permanent residents (NPR) has reached 725,000 in the four-quarter rolling average, surpassing the previous record of under 200,000! It is worth noting that the majority of non-permanent residents are renters, which exacerbates the ongoing rental crisis in the country. Furthermore, a comparison between Canada and the United States shows that Canada's population grew at a rate of 3.5% last year, while the USA's population grew at a rate of 0.5%.The City of Vancouver is facing its own financial difficulties that will almost certainly result in significant property tax increases for homeowners. The projected budget shortfall is driven by high inflation, upcoming collective bargaining with employees, and various council initiatives, including plans to hire 100 additional police officers. As a result, homeowners in Vancouver may experience property tax increases of close to 10% annually for the next five years. These increases can have a substantial impact on homeowners' finances and raise concerns about the affordability of living in the city.We also dive into some of the stats for the month of June and Buyers should be somewhat happy to hear that supply has increased to just over 10,000 active units. With that said, we also take a glimpse into the office space sector in Vancouver which has a vacancy rate of near 9% with major REIT’s looking to offload entire buildings.  _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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Jun 24, 2023 • 23min

5 Signs We Are Heading Towards A Recession

This week we look at how the Canadian economy is grappling with a series of troubling indicators that raise concerns about a potential recession. Our podcast discussion explores the key factors contributing to the heightened risks, including skyrocketing household debt, surging mortgage payments, escalating rental rates, declining mortgage growth, mounting credit card debt, plummeting housing starts, and weakening sentiment towards real estate. We shed light on the various economic challenges and the potential impact on businesses and employment. Primarily household debt burdens are reaching unprecedented levels. Canadian households are experiencing an alarming rise in debt service ratios, reaching their highest levels since 1990. With Canada ranking third globally in terms of household debt, the diversion of disposable income towards interest costs is hampering consumer spending, which poses a significant risk to the overall economy.Monthly mortgage payments have surged to all-time highs, primarily driven by deep discount fixed-rate mortgages. This increase limits the amount of money available for expenditure on goods and services, potentially triggering a slowdown in economic growth. Rental rates have reached record levels, particularly in cities like Vancouver, making affordable housing increasingly scarce. The limited financial capacity of individuals to afford higher rent negatively impacts their overall disposable income, creating a drag on consumer spending. The growth rate of mortgage debt has been steadily declining, largely due to reduced originations in the first quarter. Stricter lending requirements imposed by regulatory authorities, such as the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), may further hinder borrowing capacity, potentially leading to a shift from homebuyers to renters.While mortgage lending faces tighter regulations, credit card debt continues to surge, hitting record highs. The rise in credit card loans might indicate that consumers are using credit to remain solvent in other areas of their expenses before potential defaults occur, presenting a concerning sign for the economy. The construction industry is witnessing a significant decline in housing starts, marking the sharpest drop since the 2008 financial crisis. This decline is mirrored by a substantial decrease in building permits, which typically precede housing starts, signifying a slowdown in the sector and its potential impact on the broader economy.  Canadian sentiment towards real estate has started to decline, following a period of recovery driven by expectations of a Bank of Canada "pause." However, with uncertainties regarding the future course of central bank policies, sentiment is expected to soften further in the coming months, potentially affecting economic outlook and decision-making.The alarming levels of household debt, soaring mortgage payments, rising rental rates, declining mortgage growth, mounting credit card debt, plummeting housing starts, and weakening sentiment towards real estate all contribute to the economic uncertainties. As businesses and individuals grapple with these challenges, proactive measures and prudent policy decisions will be crucial to mitigate the potential negative effects and ensure the resilience of the Canadian economy. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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Jun 17, 2023 • 24min

Feds Hold Rate, Inflation Down - But New Mortgages Dropping....

This week we explore the inflation and interest rate factors affecting the United States and how they are impacting us here Vancouver. We take a close look at inflation, interest rates, new mortgage originations, rental rates, and the affordability index - all of which have changed significantly in the last few months. The Federal Reserve (Fed) in the United States decided to hold interest rates for the first time in 15 months, ending a period of significant cumulative hikes. Although inflation in the US dropped to its lowest level in two years, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that two more rate hikes might occur in 2023 to manage inflationary pressures effectively. The US stock market responded positively to the news, indicating there’s a slight sense of optimism about the economy's prospects.The mortgage market in Canada however is a different story and experienced its weakest growth in two decades during the first quarter of the year, with newly issued mortgages reaching their lowest point since 2003. High interest rates affected homebuyers, causing many to delay their purchases. Furthermore, the percentage of new mortgages in Canada with borrowers spending 25% or more of their gross income on payments increased significantly compared to previous years. The effects of these trends are starting to emerge in Greater Vancouver, where active inventory reached its highest level since November 2022. Sales are expected to be 25% higher than the same period the previous year, while prices remained relatively stable.Rental rates in Vancouver continue to rise due to record-breaking population growth and tight supply. Demand for rental units is so high that bidding wars are becoming common, with prospective renters given limited time to view a property and submit their applications. In fact, it’s become so expensive that the average rent in Vancouver is no $2,649 per month. The Mercer Report, which ranks global cities based on affordability, reveals that Vancouver has dropped eight places to 116th out of 227 cities. This indicates that there are 115 cities worldwide with a higher cost of living than Vancouver - which we found somewhat confusing as it certainly doesn’t feel that way.In conclusion, the episode highlights the potential impact of the Fed's interest rate decisions on the economy, the challenges faced by homebuyers due to high mortgage rates, the increasing rental rates in Vancouver, and the city's relative affordability compared to other global cities. It suggests that the effects of recent economic developments may continue to be felt in the coming months as we aren’t out of the woods just yet. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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Jun 10, 2023 • 24min

Interest Rate Hike Will Slow Housing Over Summer

The Canadian economy has experienced a significant shift in monetary policy again this week as the Bank of Canada (BOC) raised its policy rate by 0.25% to 4.75% on June 7th. This move marks the largest cumulative interest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s, and there are indications that more rate hikes may be on the horizon. The current interest rates are now the highest they have been in 22 years, dating back to 2001. This week we are exploring the implications of these interest rate hikes, the reasons behind them, and their potential impact on various sectors of the economy.The recent interest rate hike by the BOC was driven by the need to combat high inflation. The first quarter GDP numbers came in higher than expected at 3.1%, surpassing analysts' expectations of 2.5%. The economy is still growing at a faster pace than the BOC would like to see, with consumer spending increasing by 5.7% during the 1st quarter. The surprise interest rate hike aims to curb inflationary pressures and bring the economy back to a more sustainable growth trajectory.But there are Implications for Variable Rate Holders, Renters, and Borrowers. The impact of rising interest rates is felt most acutely by variable rate holders, as their monthly payments increase. Renters also face challenges as higher interest rates can lead to increased rental costs. Businesses with existing debt or those seeking to borrow will experience higher borrowing costs, potentially affecting their investment decisions and expansion plans. Individuals looking to make purchases using credit or secure a mortgage will also face higher borrowing costs.Residential investment has experienced a significant decline as well, with a 15% year-on-year drop and a 20% decrease relative to Q1 2022. This contraction represents the most severe decline since the 1990s. Furthermore, Canada has never witnessed a 10% annual decline in real residential investment without it being associated with a recession. Additional data from CMHC and Equifax highlights that average mortgage payments are outpacing disposable income growth by the widest margin on record. Average home equity line of credit (HELOC) payments have also increased by 50%, further straining consumers' financial capabilities.The Toronto housing market has experienced an increase in listings, rising by 30% month-on-month. However, active inventory remains down by 23% year-on-year and is near its lowest level in a decade. Despite this, home prices in Toronto increased by a substantial 3.1% in May, marking one of the largest increases in the past decade. Calgary's real estate market continues to strengthen, with home sales rising by 7.5% month-on-month in May and reaching a record for that month. Although listings spiked by 30% month-on-month, active inventory is down by 40% year-on-year. Calgary's housing prices have seen a significant increase since 2020, rising from $400k to $540k, hitting a new all-time high HPI price in May.While the current trend suggests a likely recession, it is expected to be a "normal" recession rather than a major financial crisis. The growing unaffordability of housing, increasing HELOC payments, and persistent inflation raise concerns about the ability of the average consumer to sustain spending. WE expect to see a pullback over the summer and into the balance of the year. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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Jun 3, 2023 • 19min

Vancouver Real Estate Market Update for May 2023

The May 2023 Vancouver Real Estate numbers are in and in this episode I’m going to share the most important data, give my feedback on why I believe prices are doing what they’re doing, and offer my predictions into what you can expect to see happen in the upcoming months. Home sales reached an impressive 3,411 homes sold. This marks a significant 16% increase compared to May 2022, making it the fourth consecutive month of sales growth. Interestingly, May 2023 recorded the highest sales volume in the past 13 months, surpassing even the end of the record-breaking Red Hot run in April 2022 when the overnight rate was at 1%. It's worth noting that January sales were at a mere 1,032, but since then, they have tripled in number. Surprisingly, January sales were even lower than those in April 2020 during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Although May's sales were 1.5% below the 10-year seasonal average, the demand remains strong and homes continue to sell despite historically low inventory levels and a 20-year low in new listings.There were 5,661 new listings in May 2023. While this represents an 11.5% decrease compared to the previous year, it marks the fifth consecutive month of increased new listing amounts. In fact, May 2023 recorded the highest number of new listings in a year. These figures translate to a modest 4.3% decline below the 10-year seasonal average, making it almost a "normal" month for new listings. The intriguing question arises: What factors are now motivating people to list their properties when they didn't do so in March or April?Despite a 12-month high in new listings, the overall inventory only increased by 214 units or 2.5%. This marks the sixth consecutive month with inventory remaining below 9,000 units, signifying a relatively flat trend. Compared to May 2022, the inventory is 22% lower, and it stands 25% below the 10-year average, without even accounting for population growth.The HPI Price saw an $18,000 increase month over month, resulting in a 1.3% rise. The average price now stands at $1,188,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of price increases. Since January, prices have risen by 7%, equivalent to $76,600. However, it's important to note that prices are still 5.6% lower than May 2022. The HPI (House Price Index) indicates a 6.5% decrease from the peak recorded in April 2022, but it is considered a lagging indicator. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of the market, it is recommended to look at the following metrics.Turning to median prices, we see a $10,000 increase to reach $980,000. This marks the fifth consecutive month of price increases and a substantial $110,000 surge since December 2022. Furthermore, it is the highest median price in the past 11 months, with only February, March, and April of 2022 surpassing it. The median price currently stands at a mere 2% below the all-time high.The average price also experienced growth, rising by $14,000 to reach $1,312,000. This marks the fourth consecutive month of price increases, with a $145,000 rise within the last four months alone. The average price remains relatively close to the peak, standing at only 2.5% below it.Wrapping up, it's clear that the Vancouver real estate market remains hot, with all metrics pointing towards continued growth. Stay tuned for the upcoming Bank of Canada announcement on June 7th, where interest rate updates will be provided.  _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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May 27, 2023 • 26min

Vancouver Landscape About To Change Dramatically

On May 18, the City of Vancouver released an updated Multiplex Proposal aimed at increasing the availability of "the missing middle" housing types, including duplexes, multiplexes, townhomes, and low-rise apartments. The proposal seeks to address the housing shortage and affordability crisis in the city by introducing more diverse housing options. Today we look at the key aspects of the proposal, public opinion, the simplification of RS zoning regulations, the implementation of AI technology for permit processing, and the broader issue of housing in British Columbia.During the last public meeting held in February, the Multiplex Proposal received significant attention, with 455 attendees and 1,900 completed online surveys. The feedback demonstrated substantial support for the proposal, with 77% of respondents agreeing that multiplexes should be allowed in low-density areas. Additionally, 60% agreed to reduce the size of new houses, while 80% supported increasing the size of laneway houses. A majority (74%) also expressed agreement with removing guidelines, regulations, and reducing the number of RS Zones.The proposal outlines the types of housing that can be built under the new regulations based on frontage sizes. For properties with a frontage of 33', a maximum of four units can be constructed, with an approximate area of 4,000 sqft. For properties with a 44' frontage, five units are allowed, with an approximate area of 5,000 sqft. Properties with a frontage of 50' or more can accommodate either six strata units or eight rental units, with a minimum of four units and an approximate area of 6,000 sqft.There's a number of reasons the COV is considering this. Primarily it's to facilitate faster housing construction, increase design choices and flexibility, simplify building regulations, and to create capacity for the 'missing middle' housing type. Currently, there are 9 separate RS Zones! This is definitely adding to the complexity of the permit process. The solution proposed is to standardize requirements and combine all 9 zones into a single RS Zone. Notably, the size of new single-family houses would be reduced while the size of new laneway houses would be increased considerably.Insider information suggests that the city may only accept 100 applications on a first-come, first-served basis as pilot projects. This limitation raises questions regarding the city's capacity to handle an influx of applications and the potential impact on trades and infrastructure. Concerns have also been raised regarding the proposed sizes of the new housing units, with some questioning whether the parameters are too small to meet the growing housing demands. In an effort to expedite the permit process, the City of Kelowna is collaborating with Microsoft in developing an AI chatbot. The chatbot is intended to receive and analyze applications for construction and renovations, ensuring compliance with zoning bylaws, official community plans, lot particulars, dimensions, and setbacks. The long-term vision for the AI system is to assess building applications and issue permits for compliant projects, potentially enabling instantaneous approval for simple applications. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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May 20, 2023 • 29min

Inflation & Home Prices Are Rising - Which One Will Give First?

In this episode, we dive deep into the various aspects of the Canadian economy, providing insights and analysis on recent developments. We discuss the unexpected rise in inflation in April, speculate on the Bank of Canada's next move, explore RBC's prediction of a housing market turnaround in spring 2023, analyze the Q1 population growth data, and examine the national housing market trends. We also touch on bond yields, business insolvencies, wage growth, and new home trends. Throughout the episode, we provide valuable insights and discuss the potential implications for individuals navigating the rapidly changing market.Inflation surprised us all as it unexpectedly rose, increasing by 0.1% to 4.4% in April. This marks the first increase since June 2022 and is mainly driven by higher shelter costs, including rents and mortgage interest costs. Dan suggests that the Bank of Canada is chasing its own tail in trying to beat inflation, as the interest cost within the CPI basket has increased by 30% year over year. The previous statements made by the Bank of Canada's Governor about inflation getting under control, now seem questionable again. The expectations of a rate hike in the next six months and the potential for hitting a 3% inflation rate in the coming months are proving less and less likely.We also take our focus to bond yields, which have risen to 3.3% from 2.87% in just two weeks. This increase is expected to push fixed rates up from the mid-4s to the high-4s, while still remaining lower than today's variable rates. The inverted yield curve, with a difference of 100 basis points, is a classic recession indicator that suggests the possibility of a recession, even if it takes until 2024. We also explore the topic of wage growth and we question whether it is necessarily a bad thing for Canadians considering the current cost of living. We reflect on the challenges faced by central bankers in aligning wage growth with the cost of living in a globalized economy. With larger global forces, such as fuel consumption, energy prices, global transport costs, and integrated supply chains are all driving inflation and affecting the average consumer through higher interest rates. We raise important questions about whether the right problem is being addressed and explore the future drivers of inflation, considering recent shifts towards protectionist perspectives and disruptions to the globalized economy.National housing market trends have changed course starting with an 11% jump in sales, the largest month-over-month gain since COVID lockdowns. We note that new listings are at 20-year lows for the fifth consecutive month, resulting in a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 70%, the highest since 2021 and higher than 2016. The shift from a buyer's market to a seller's market and the significant decline in inventory, which has dropped by 6% in just one month continue to compounded pressures in the market. We also explore regional variations, with Ontario experiencing a 10% drop in active listings over four months. This episode is packed with insights that we surely have you scratching your head - especially the net immigration growth projection of nearly 2 million new people coming to Canada! Tune in and catch the full story! _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com

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