The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast Debts & Defaults Rising - What's In Store This Fall
This week we took a look at how the month of August was rounding out as well as providing our predictions for the Fall Market and the highly anticipated interest rate announcement next week.
There have been 2,300 sales with a 20% year-on-year increase. However, these numbers are still below long-term averages. The inventory has remained consistently below 10,000 properties for the ninth consecutive month. The sales-to-active-listings ratio is approximately 24%, indicating that it still remains a seller's market throughout 2023, except for January. While average prices have increased by $10,000, the median prices have plummeted, experiencing an 8% decrease or a drop of $78,000 to $900,000, erasing all gains made in 2023.
Various sources suggest that the BoC is expected to hold steady at 5.00%, with a minority anticipating one more rate increase. These predictions are based on assessments from Reuters, RBC, Oxford Economics, and interest rate future markets. With that said, there's still about a 30% chance of a 0.25% interest rate change in September and a 70% chance by the end of the year. The decision by the Bank of Canada (BoC) to raise rates could cool the market further, dampen consumer confidence, and restrict credit flow even more putting the risk of recession very much at the forefront.
We also look at the first and second-quarter GDP results which are likely to show a sharper slowdown in economic growth, with an expected growth rate of 1.1%, down from 3.1% in the first quarter and below the BoC's estimate of 1.5%. Historically, there’s typically an uptick in activity throughout September and possibly October which could help stabilize prices, however, the housing market is likely to continue to slow down as the overall economy inches down and unemployment rises. A moderate recession could change the narrative around interest rates and inflation but are likely to be months if not at least a year away from recovery. Tune into this weeks podcast and catch our other predictions about the fall market - What will rents do? Are prices still going to rise?
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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA
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Ryan Dash PREC
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