The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast

The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast
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Nov 29, 2025 • 30min

The Truth About What Canada Is Really Building

Canada is building homes at a record pace, but a closer look reveals a growing disconnect between what’s being constructed and what Canadians actually need, want, or can afford. While total units under construction sit at all-time highs, homeowner-oriented housing tells a very different story. Single-family home starts have fallen to levels not seen since 2009, even dipping below those of 25 years ago when adjusted for population growth. Over just three months, single-family starts are down more than 9%, condo starts are down over 11%, and yet purpose-built rental construction is up more than 30%. Building permits, the clearest leading indicator show Ontario and British Columbia at a 40-year low for single-family approvals, all but guaranteeing a future shortage of that housing type. The trajectory is clear: fewer Canadians will live in single-family homes, not by choice, but by supply design.That supply shift is already reshaping the rental market. Canada now has roughly 180,000 purpose-built rental units in the pipeline, including an extraordinary 16% of British Columbia’s entire rental stock currently under construction. Contrast that with 2012, when fewer than 2,000 rentals were being built nationwide. Today, that number exceeds 35,000 annually. Vacancy rates, which hit a historic low near 1.5% in 2024, have already climbed to roughly 2.5%, with growing evidence they could push into the 4% range over the coming years. Rents are responding quickly. In Metro Vancouver, average one-bedroom rents fell in November to roughly $2,164 — down 9% year-over-year — with similar declines now seen across 17 of Canada’s largest metro areas. For investors, particularly institutions that piled aggressively into rental housing, this is an inflection point worth watching closely.Against this backdrop, Ottawa has rolled out its latest housing intervention: Build Canada Homes, a new federal agency aimed almost entirely at affordable rental and social housing. The program brings long-awaited clarity around income-based definitions of affordability and outlines a three-pillar strategy focused on financing, building, and industrializing housing production. But it also exposes critical blind spots. The program does not target market-rate ownership or middle-class housing. Its standardized design catalogue emphasizes low-rise, low-density buildings, often with small unit sizes, at a time when cities are short family-sized homes and need density. Innovation is championed rhetorically, yet without a clear plan to reconcile higher upfront costs with housing volume or to modernize zoning and building codes that frequently block new construction methods before they scale.Absorbing this supply would normally rely on strong population growth. That engine is stalling. Telecom data tracking mobile phone additions shows population growth slowing sharply, with 2025 on track for one of the weakest increases in over 70 years — and federal policy aimed at slowing it further.Taken together, the picture is sobering. Canada is producing housing but increasingly rentals instead of ownership, volume instead of suitability, optics instead of outcomes. Until supply aligns with real demand, regulations match ambition, and confidence is restored, the housing crisis is unlikely to ease. The question isn’t just what Canada is building it’s who it’s being built for, and whether that answer still works. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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Nov 22, 2025 • 29min

B.C.’s Real Estate Shake-Up: Land Claims, Insolvencies & Declining Housing Starts

Canada’s housing market is being pulled in more directions than ever. Court cases, collapsing construction, political battles, and rising costs are all converging at once — and the result is a level of uncertainty we haven’t seen in years. This week, we’re breaking down what’s making headlines, what’s just noise, and what could materially reshape housing across B.C.We start in Port Coquitlam, where a decade-long Kwikwetlem land claim has resurfaced, putting major institutional sites from the Riverview lands to Gates Park, back into the legal spotlight. The case is currently paused while provincial negotiations take place, but after the recent Richmond ruling and new cases in Kamloops and Sun Peaks, municipalities are bracing for more challenges. With 95% of B.C. land unceded, these decisions could set the tone for years of litigation.Cross-border tensions are rising too. Several Alaska tribal nations have now petitioned the B.C. Supreme Court, arguing they should have a legal voice in Canadian resource projects including the Red Chris Mine, a federally fast-tracked, nation-building development. Their claim builds on the 2021 Desautel ruling, which recognized U.S.-based tribes as Aboriginal peoples of Canada. If the courts agree again, the implications for Canadian sovereignty, consultation rights, and investor confidence could be enormous.Meanwhile, housing supply is weakening. Starts are falling across B.C., with multi-family projects in larger centres down sharply. Calgary is considering reversing its citywide rezoning, Burnaby has scaled back Bill 44, and pre-sale markets continue to collapse — all of which point to even lower starts ahead. But there is one major outlier: the Heather Lands proposal has returned with towers as tall as 46 storeys, driven by a massive attainable-housing initiative involving the Province and the MST Partnership. If approved, 85% of the 4,200 homes on site would be below-market — a scale almost unprecedented in Vancouver.Demographics are shifting too. The median homebuyer age is rising rapidly, especially in the U.S., where it has surged to 59. Wealthier, older buyers are dominating the market, while first-time buyers shrink to record lows. Canada hasn’t seen the same extreme jump yet, but affordability constraints suggest we’re heading in that direction.On the financial side, the fallout from “Condo Day” continues as the Belvedere project in Surrey enters creditor protection, revealing just how fragile pre-sale economics have become. Nationally, CREA reports modest price increases and slightly higher sales, but Ontario’s downturn continues to drag the national average lower.And finally, inflation cooled to 2.2%, but not for the reasons that matter most to homebuyers. Gas prices did the heavy lifting, while shelter costs — rent, insurance, and mortgage interest — continue pushing inflation higher. Core measures remain sticky, meaning cheaper mortgages aren’t coming anytime soon.Policies, courts, construction, demographics, and financing are all colliding at once. Understanding which forces are temporary and which are structural has never been more important. This week, we break it all down — and what it means for your next move in B.C.’s housing market. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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Nov 15, 2025 • 13min

ZERO Growth: How Canada’s New Population Targets Will Reshape the Housing Market

For years, one of the driving narratives in Canadian real estate was deceptively simple: population growth equals home-price growth. Between 2021-2023, that tailwind was unmistakable — massive immigration, booming temporary residents, and a swelling demand for housing fueled price rises across the country. But that story is now changing. The latest federal budget from Ottawa projects zero population growth for the first time in modern history — a signal that the era of “Demographic Alpha” may be over.In British Columbia, the October numbers underscore the shifting landscape. Home sales across the province dropped by 10% year-over-year, with only 6,370 units sold, yet the average price ticked up to $987,600 (a modest 0.8 % increase). At first glance, that may seem counter-intuitive—especially given the drop in the Greater Vancouver region, where prices actually fell 3.4%. What it reveals is a province where local dynamics are diverging: outside the Lower Mainland some markets are still inching up.Nationally, every province except Ontario is showing year-over-year price increases. Ontario is down about 2.9%, even though pockets within have seen drops of 30 % or more. Two regions — Newfoundland and the Northwest Territories — are up more than 10%. So while the broader narrative remains “prices rising,” it’s the hyper-local story that matters.Let’s go back to population. For decades, Canadian real estate bulls pointed to one immutable fact: we kept growing. New people meant new renters, new buyers, new demand — the structural scarcity argument. But Ottawa’s policy shift is turning the page. Between 2020 and 2024, population growth was arguably the strongest single driver of housing returns: it boosted rentals, shortened vacancy, supported pre-construction profits. Now the federal government’s reduced intake of permanent and temporary residents is removing that force. Growth dropping from 3% to near zero rewrites the math of valuations.The consequences are broader than real estate: GDP growth in recent years has largely been powered by population expansion. With shrinking labour-force growth and rising youth and newcomer unemployment already flagged by the Bank of Canada, housing demand will be impacted. In effect, immigration policy is now acting as a rate hike — cooling demand without touching interest rates. For investors and developers, the easy “demographic premium” is gone.Condo starts continue to collapse. New sales of condo units have tanked, and about 18 months later condo starts follow that trajectory. We’re seeing new-home construction at 15-year lows, fewer jobs in building trades, fewer units coming to market. And then there’s the demographic domino effect.So what does this all mean for you—or for anyone who’s betting on real estate? The thesis of perpetual population-driven housing demand is under threat. Scarcity is no longer guaranteed. The fundamentals are shifting: slower growth means slower demand, longer lease-ups, muted appreciation. For developers, investors and agents alike: adaptation is key. The era of demographic tailwinds is fading. The question now is: who will stay ahead in the new chapter? _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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Nov 8, 2025 • 37min

November Vancouver Real Estate Update - Pricing Falling, Budget Fallout, Land Claim Shock

Vancouver home prices just dropped for the seventh straight month,  and the November stats paint a clear picture: momentum is fading, listings remain high, and the winter slowdown is now colliding with a wave of economic and policy turbulence. In this week’s episode, we break down everything from the federal budget fallout to land title uncertainty in B.C., and what all of it means for prices heading into 2026.Let’s start with Ottawa. The latest federal budget was pitched as a housing plan, but for many Canadians dreaming of ownership, it landed more like a broken promise. Funding for the Build Canada Homes program was cut nearly in half, the MURB tax incentive was quietly shelved, and the much-hyped “development charge relief” was watered down. Instead, the lion’s share of new spending targets rentals and supportive housing — not ownership. Worse, the government has committed to running the largest deficit in Canadian history over the next five years. With Ottawa already paying $55 billion annually just in interest, that figure could easily double if rates stay higher for longer. For context, in the 1990s, when interest payments hit 33% of total revenue, the government faced a full-blown fiscal crisis. Today we’re at 10%, but trending up — and if that number hits 20% or more, markets, rating agencies, and mortgage rates will all start reacting. The key takeaway: Canada isn’t in crisis yet, but it’s walking a thinner line than most realize.Meanwhile, jobs data surprised to the upside, with 67,000 positions added in October — nearly all of them part-time. Private sector hiring picked up for the first time in months, but construction jobs fell again, particularly in B.C., where the slowdown in new builds is clearly visible. In Metro Vancouver, employment dipped 0.3%, and the unemployment rate edged up to 6.3%. Economists now expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates steady into the new year. It’s a signal of cautious stability — the economy isn’t collapsing, but it’s far from thriving.And then there’s the land claim shock. A recent B.C. Supreme Court ruling recognized Aboriginal title for the Cowichan Tribes over a section of southeast Richmond — an area including roughly 150 private parcels — and struck down parts of the law that made land titles “indefeasible.” The decision, now on appeal, effectively allows two forms of ownership to co-exist on the same land — something that no lender or insurer can practically underwrite. And finally, the November housing stats. Sales rose 21% month-over-month to 2,257 — the second-strongest month of 2025 — but still sit 14% below last year and 14.5% under the 10-year average. Inventory, at 15,797 active listings, is up 13% year-over-year and sits 36% above the decade norm. The sales-to-active ratio now rests at 14%. Detached homes sit at 11%, townhomes at 19%, and condos at 16%. The HPI benchmark price dropped again, down 0.8% month-over-month and 5.1% from the March peak to $1,132,500 — the lowest level since March 2023.By the end of this episode, you’ll understand where prices are heading next, how the budget’s deficit math could affect mortgage rates, and why land titles — not just listings — are suddenly the biggest wildcard in B.C. real estate.Foreclosures Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feD5v2ByQQc&t=5s   _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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Nov 1, 2025 • 22min

Mortgage PAIN, Record Cancellations & Rate Cuts: What’s Next for Canada’s Market

This week on The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast — the Bank of Canada cuts rates again. But are we at the bottom of this cycle, or is another surprise still coming? As Ottawa gears up to unveil its massive 2026 federal budget, we break down how an $80 billion deficit could completely reshape Canada’s interest rate path and keep borrowing costs higher for longer. What does that mean for homebuyers, investors, and renters? We’ll unpack it all — from a slowing economy to a shifting housing pipeline that’s seeing record rental construction, collapsing building permits, and an alarming wave of cancelled condo projects.The Bank’s latest 25-basis-point cut brings the overnight rate to 2.25%, right at the bottom of its neutral range. While that offers a small reprieve for variable-rate holders, economists warn we’re nearing the end of this easing cycle. With GDP growth projected at just over 1% for the next two years, and the Bank declaring that U.S. trade tariffs are “fundamentally reshaping Canada’s economy,” we’re entering an adjustment phase — not a boom. At the same time, the government’s expected fiscal stimulus could actually push rates higher over time, as bond markets demand more to finance record-level deficits.Meanwhile, Canada’s housing pipeline is starting to fracture. New single-family and condo starts are plunging while rental construction surges to all-time highs. Over 110,000 rental units are now underway — half of all new housing starts in the country — even as student demand collapses and rent incentives pile up. In contrast, homeowner-driven construction is at its lowest since 2009, setting the stage for tighter resale supply in the years ahead. The collapse in new condo sales, record cancellations, and vanishing launches in the GTA only reinforce what’s coming — a short-term freeze that could sow the seeds for the next supply crunch.Mortgage renewals continue to bite, with payments rising roughly $105 per $100,000 borrowed — the steepest increase since the early ’90s. Most borrowers are opting for three- to four-year fixed terms, betting that rates will be lower by mid-decade but perhaps discounting the inflationary pressures that could come with a massive budget. But with consumer confidence now at levels last seen during the financial crisis, Canadians are hesitant to make big moves — even as mortgage affordability improves to its best point since 2021.And while October’s housing data shows signs of life — with sales volumes and prices at their highest levels of 2025 — the real question is whether this marks a turning point or just a temporary blip. Between fiscal stimulus, trade uncertainty, and a fragile job market, Canada’s housing story is once again at a crossroads. By the end of this week's episode, you’ll know exactly where this market is heading next — and how to position yourself before the next cycle begins. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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Oct 25, 2025 • 20min

Mortgage Debt Hits RECORD HIGH as Prices FALL - Canada Nears BREAKING Point

According to the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association, national home sales declined by 1.7% month-over-month in September, ending a string of steady gains that began in the spring. Even so, this was still the strongest September for sales since 2021. On a year-over-year basis, transactions were up 5.2%, while both new listings and total active listings fell 0.8%. That left just 4.4 months of inventory available nationwide — the lowest level since January, and below the long-term average of five months.The Home Price Index dropped 0.1% month-over-month and is now down 3.4% year-over-year. Average prices, meanwhile, rose a modest 0.7% compared to last year. Regionally, B.C. and Ontario are the only provinces still showing price declines, while every other province posted gains. Yukon led the pack with a 13.4% annual price increase.But when you adjust for inflation and measure from the February 2022 peak, the story changes dramatically. Real home prices in Canada are now down roughly 29%. In nominal terms, they’re down 18%. Hamilton has taken the biggest hit—down about 40% after inflation—followed by the GTA and then Vancouver, which is sitting around a 20% real decline. On the flip side, Greater Moncton and Saskatoon are actually up roughly 19% nominal, or about 8% in real terms, since that same peak.The widening gap between new listings and completed sales continues to point toward more downward pressure on prices ahead. And even though affordability has “improved” from the record-breaking lows of 2024, it remains completely out of reach for most Canadians. In Vancouver, the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home still eats up about 87% of the median household income — a figure that’s almost comically unsustainable.So where does that leave us heading into the final stretch of 2025? Will collapsing affordability finally force the next rate cut — or will the Bank hold the line, freezing the market even further? We break it all down — from record-level mortgage exposure to the cities where prices have quietly crashed 40%.This episode also marks a huge milestone — Episode 300 of The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast. Since launching on June 22nd, 2020, the team has released a new episode every single Saturday without missing a week. Now with over 7,000 subscribers and 70,000+ monthly views, The Vancouver Life remains one of Canada’s most consistent and data-driven real estate channels.To celebrate, we’re giving away our exclusive Home Seller’s Manual — the guide we use to help clients sell for top dollar. It includes prep strategies, curb-appeal tips, organization hacks, and a 100-point checklist showing which areas matter most. To get your copy make sure you watch the episode and comment TOP DOLLAR.We also unpack Vancouver’s sweeping new rezoning — a city-initiated move affecting over 4,000 properties across the Broadway Plan and Cambie Corridor. Projects that meet the new criteria can skip rezoning entirely, shaving up to 12 months off approval times. It’s a bold step toward faster housing — but with costs high and demand soft, will developers take advantage?Episode 300 of The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast — available now and join the discussion about where Canada’s housing market is heading next. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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Oct 18, 2025 • 17min

From Boom to Freeze: Canada’s Housing Construction Crisis Explained

Canada’s housing market is undergoing a fundamental transformation—not just in prices, but in the types of homes being built. From Toronto to Vancouver to Calgary, developers are hitting pause, construction starts are slowing, and the mix of housing completions over the next 3 to 5 years is shifting dramatically. Single-family homes and condos, the traditional pillars of Canadian homeownership, are seeing major declines in new construction, while purpose-built rentals are quietly surging to record levels.Toronto, often viewed as a leading indicator, has seen residential units under construction fall by 2.3% in just the last month and nearly 11% year-over-year. The most significant drop is in condo construction, which is down 16.4%, alongside a 17.1% decline in single-family homes. Meanwhile, purpose-built rentals have jumped 15.5% year-over-year. Vancouver and Calgary mirror this trend to varying degrees. Calgary, in particular, stands out with purpose-built rentals up nearly 55% year-over-year.This shift signals a fundamental reorientation in Canada’s housing pipeline. Fewer condos and detached homes are on the horizon, while rental supply is set to expand significantly. The likely outcome is continued downward pressure on rental rates, declining returns for individual condo investors, and increased resale activity as holding becomes less attractive. At the same time, the construction of new single-family homes is virtually non-existent outside of legacy luxury pockets like Shaughnessy, West Vancouver, or Point Grey.Compounding this trend, the future pipeline is showing further weakness. Building permits have fallen 2.4% year-over-year, and when adjusted for inflation, the value of those permits has dropped by nearly 8%, representing over $560 million in reduced residential development. Single-family home permits are down over 10%, and even the more resilient multifamily sector is beginning to slow. Since peaking in December 2024, multifamily permits have declined nearly 29%.These trends suggest that despite aggressive government incentives to stimulate new housing, developers are losing confidence. Rising costs, softening demand, and bureaucratic friction are now overpowering policy carrots. This disconnect between government ambition and market risk tolerance is emerging as a critical obstacle to new supply.Nowhere is this more visible than in Burnaby. As one of the first cities to aggressively implement British Columbia’s multiplex zoning legislation, Burnaby fast-tracked significant densification across formerly single-family zones. But as those projects break ground, residents are pushing back. From 4-storey laneway houses to high-density builds with zero parking, public backlash has prompted the city to reconsider.Together, these data points paint a picture of a housing market that is not just cooling, but reshaping. The supply mix is being rewritten, urban policy is facing backlash, and economic signals are increasingly bifurcated between headline strength and structural weakness. For homeowners, investors, and policymakers alike, the next chapter in Canada’s housing story won’t just be about prices—it will be about purpose. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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Oct 11, 2025 • 23min

How LOW Will Prices GO: A Look Into Canada’s Real Estate Future

This week on The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast, the question hanging over the entire country’s housing market finally takes center stage: How long will this downturn last?BMO Capital Markets has drawn a striking parallel between today’s Canadian correction and the U.S. housing crash of 2007 — a comparison that has rattled even the most seasoned market watchers. Senior Economist Robert Kavcic doesn’t mince words: Canada’s housing bubble is now in the slow-motion phase of its deflation. Prices, he notes, have been falling for more than three years despite record population growth — a pattern eerily reminiscent of the U.S. trajectory nearly two decades ago.The difference this time? Canada’s decline is unfolding more gradually, and that could make recovery slower, too. BMO’s data suggest it could take another five years before prices claw their way back to prior peaks, placing today’s correction somewhere between the U.S. Great Recession cycle and Ontario’s prolonged 1990s slump — a potential 12-year arc from top to trough and back again. The bank calls the last decade’s explosive price growth a “perfect storm” unlikely to repeat: cheap credit, pandemic migration, millennial peak demand, and speculative fervor all hitting at once. Those conditions, they argue, are gone for good.Meanwhile, Canada’s rental market is flashing its own warning signs. Asking rents have fallen for a full year straight — down 3.2% nationally and more than 5% in B.C. and Alberta — with two-thirds of all purpose-built projects now dangling incentives just to fill units. Institutional landlords may weather the storm, but smaller investors are bailing out, adding even more supply to a fragile market. The slowdown is visible upstream, too. Architecture billings — a leading indicator of future construction — have fallen for 18 consecutive months across North America, the longest slide on record. In B.C., developers are pausing or cancelling projects, from downtown high-rises to suburban townhomes. The stalled Tsawwassen Town Centre redevelopment has become a case study in the friction between city councils, community character, local residents and development economics.And yet, amid the austerity, Vancouver’s City Council just took an unprecedented step: approving a 0% property-tax increase for 2026. After years of back-to-back hikes totalling more than 30%, Mayor Ken Sim’s administration says the city will instead “find efficiencies” to ease the strain on families and small businesses. Supporters call it relief. Critics call it unsustainable. But not all the headlines are grim. In False Creek, a shimmering symbol of Vancouver’s high-end resilience emerged: the Tesoro Penthouse, a 5,000-square-foot full-floor residence with panoramic views, listed for $1,5,500,000  just sold for a record-breaking price — the most expensive sale ever recorded in the area. The transaction, closed by The Vancouver Life team, stands as a reminder that even in a cooling market, the city’s top tier still commands global attention.From the deep freeze of development to the fragile thaw in rentals, this episode dissects what these parallel shifts mean for Canada’s broader housing future — and whether patience, not policy, will be the only real cure for a market learning how to land. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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Oct 4, 2025 • 34min

OCTOBER 2025 Vancouver Real Estate Market Update - Prices, Jobs & Pre Sales Falling

Canada’s housing market is shifting faster than the headlines suggest—and not in one direction. On paper, “affordability” is improving as prices slip and the overnight rate eases to 2.5%, taking ownership costs back toward late-2021 levels. But the market isn’t responding like 2021 because confidence has fractured. Job openings fell 4.2% month-over-month, construction vacancies plunged 14.3% in a single month, and there are now more Canadians on EI (~550k) than there are job postings (~460k). That backdrop makes a million-dollar decision a hard sell. Meanwhile, the presale engine that funds future supply is sputtering: the GTA’s August logged just 300 new-home sales—down 42% year-over-year and 81% below the 10-year norm—with Vancouver operating at roughly a third of typical activity. Builders are finishing what’s already in the ground, but not launching new projects, setting up a delayed-impact shortage later this decade even as today’s prices grind lower.Policy is tightening, too. OSFI’s 2026 capital rules will stop investors from “re-using” the same rental income to qualify for multiple mortgages and will push more loans into income-producing buckets that carry higher capital charges. Combined-loan products will be treated as defaulted across the bundle if one piece fails. Translation: leverage gets harder for small investors just as institutions—REITs, pensions, private equity—face fewer practical constraints and can buy at scale. The likely result is a further professionalization of the rental market and a harder path to wealth-building via real estate for the middle class. At the same time, the long-standing premium of new-build over resale is wobbling. In the U.S., resale has flipped to price above new for the first time in decades—a signal of builder discounting, smaller product mixes, and the powerful “rate-lock” effect that traps owners in ultra-low mortgages and starves resale supply. Canada is different (shorter mortgage terms), but presale discounts and “more reasonable” launch pricing are appearing here, too.Macro currents aren’t providing much lift. Housing starts fell 16.3% month-over-month to a 246k pace, with rentals (≈102k) almost matching all single-family plus condo starts—unsustainable without firmer demand and cheaper capital. BC’s single-family permits have collapsed to ~45-year lows, underscoring just how thin end-user appetite is at current price points. Households remain stretched: the debt-service ratio ticked up to 14.4%, near 15-year highs for interest costs, and yet arrears improved modestly and net worth rose with equity markets—an uneasy equilibrium that doesn’t restore confidence. On the ground, October stats still read “slow grind”: sales in Greater Vancouver hovered ~20% below the 10-year average, months of supply kept the market balanced, days-on-market rose for a sixth straight month, and the HPI slipped again—down ~4% from March’s high and back to early-2023 levels. Add it up and you get a market in reset: prices easing, presales anaemic, credit tighter for small landlords, and starts rolling over. In this episode, we unpack what that means for buyers eyeing value, sellers recalibrating expectations, and policymakers deciding whether to intervene—or let the reset run its course. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com
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Sep 27, 2025 • 23min

Vancouver & Toronto Real Estate: The Shocking Data You Need to See

Canada’s housing market is being battered from every angle, and the cracks are widening into a full-blown crisis. Population growth, the single biggest driver of housing demand, has nearly stalled. Statistics Canada reported Q2 growth of just 47,000 people — a 0.1% increase and the second-slowest pace since 1946, excluding the pandemic. For a country that has leaned heavily on immigration to fuel housing, GDP, and tax revenues, this 80-year low is seismic. Developers who banked on endless inflows are now sitting on record inventories, while Vancouver and Toronto — the markets most dependent on population surges — are already showing demand erosion and softening rents.At the same time, supply battles are intensifying. Century Group’s Tsawwassen redevelopment was slashed from 1,433 homes to just 600 after NIMBY pushback, despite meeting planning requirements. In Burnaby, petitions against densification threaten to stall family housing. This kind of resistance highlights how hard it will be for cities to meet ambitious housing targets.Meanwhile, renters are gaining some leverage. Vancouver rents are falling, down 9.3% year-over-year to $2,825, and rental starts have surged to record highs. Landlords are offering concessions, a sharp reversal from the bidding wars of recent years.Toronto, however, is flashing red. Power-of-sale listings — Ontario’s faster foreclosure alternative — have exploded 14-fold since 2021, now averaging 140 a month and hitting a record 1,200 active listings. Distressed sales are growing while resale volumes remain stuck near generational lows.National home prices reveal a market split in two. The benchmark fell 20% from the 2022 peak to $686,800, but this correction is almost entirely in Ontario and B.C. Ontario prices are down 26%, B.C. 12% — yet eight of ten provinces hit new record highs this year, with Newfoundland leading.Zooming in, Vancouver’s inventory has soared to 18,100 homes — the highest in 12 years — while the benchmark price fell for the fifth straight month. Toronto’s market is drowning in inventory, with prices down $312,000 from peak. Together, these metros are dragging national averages while the rest of Canada continues to climb.This isn’t just a cooling cycle — it’s a structural reckoning. Population growth is slowing, supply is stalling under community resistance, rents are correcting, and distressed sales are rising. The fundamentals that fuelled Canada’s boom — immigration, cheap credit, and confidence — are eroding. The fight for affordability and stability is only just beginning. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 dan@thevancouverlife.com Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089 ryan@thevancouverlife.com www.thevancouverlife.com

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