Thoughts on the Market

A Supreme Court ruling could change how tariffs on everyday goods are applied. The legal role of IEEPA and how it drives higher consumer-goods tariff rates is explained. Which product categories are most exposed, and what other trade tools would stay in place, are discussed. Possible impacts on retailer margins and the timeline for prices to adjust are highlighted.

A look at several market indicators that together point toward a stronger global cyclical outlook. Topics include copper and commodity moves, Korean equities and sector leadership, financials and credit creation, cyclicals, transports, small caps, and yield curve dynamics. The discussion also flags what signals would suggest overheating versus continued support for growth.

Discussion of the 2026 USMCA review and why outcomes are likely to preserve North American trade integration. Exploration of which ambitious additions like AI, critical minerals, and Chinese investment guardrails may be hard to formalize. Consideration of Mexico’s steps on trans-shipment, potential side agreements, and how outcomes affect autos, electronics, and currency reactions.

They unpack four 2026 market themes: AI and tech diffusion, the future of energy, a multipolar geopolitical landscape, and broad societal shifts. Discussion covers compute and data center constraints, reshoring and rare-earth geopolitics, and how demographic and labor changes interact with AI. Short takes on how these themes may shape markets during volatile times.

A strategist explains a rare trifecta of geopolitics, peaking rates, and elections that could spark an investment-led growth cycle in Latin America. They explore rewritten supply chains, falling borrowing costs enabling CapEx, and deeper domestic capital markets. The conversation highlights which sectors and countries might benefit from a shift from commodity supplier to investment engine.

Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and former Federal Reserve staffer, offers a concise look at what a new Fed chair might face. He discusses Warsh as a familiar, mainstream choice. Conversation covers the chair's real authority and limits, the tough tradeoffs on inflation and rates, AI and productivity implications, and the signals investors should watch next.

Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Economist, gives a clear take on Fed policy and the outlook for interest rates. He breaks down the recent dovish hold, discusses how a new chair’s nomination could change balance sheet plans and communication, and considers market reactions and the data that will shape policy going forward.

A deep dive into policy proposals aimed at easing affordability pressures in Washington. They map which groups are hardest hit — lower-income households, younger people, and renters or recent buyers. The conversation covers likely policy tools, timing tradeoffs, and recent moves on tariffs and targeted relief. Politics and incremental policy steps round out the discussion.

Jitania Kandhari, Morgan Stanley Deputy CIO and EM macro lead, and Andrew Slimmon, Head of Applied Equity, offer concise market takes. They debate market-cycle timing and behavioral drivers. They explore capped real rates, broader AI-driven leadership and shifting sector winners. They flag growing opportunities outside the US and how policy support shapes procyclical sectors.

Discussion of how a new Fed chair nomination could reshape market expectations. Examination of sharp moves in gold and dollar weakness and what a disorderly decline could mean. Analysis of policy-driven rebalancing across trade, consumption, and growth and market signals suggesting a shift in leadership. A watch on equity versus gold ratios as a proxy for confidence and near-term volatility risks.