Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver discusses what back-to-school spending trends reveal about consumer sentiment and the U.S. economy.
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Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley’s U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist here at Morgan Stanley.
Today -- we're going back to school! A look at the second biggest shopping season in the U.S.. And what it can tell us about the broader market.
It’s Friday, August 8th, at 10am in New York.
It's that time of the year again. With parents, caregivers and students making shopping lists for back-to-school supplies. And it’s not just limited to school supplies and backpacks. It probably also includes laptops or tablets, smart phones and, of course, the latest clothes. For investors, understanding how consumers are feeling—and spending—right now is critical. Why? Because back-to-school spending tells us a lot about consumer sentiment. And this month’s data has been sending some mixed but meaningful signals.
Let’s start with the mood on Main Street. According to our latest proprietary consumer survey, confidence in the economy is sliding. Just under one-third of consumers think the economy will improve over the next six months—which is down from 37 percent last month and 44 percent in January. And that’s a pretty big drop from the start of the year. Meanwhile, half of all consumers expect the economy to get worse.
Household finances are also feeling the squeeze. While around 40 percent expect their financial situation to improve, closer to 30 percent expect it to worsen. The net score is still positive, but down from last month and even more so from January.
The takeaway? Consumers are feeling the pinch—and inflation remains their number one concern.
We did see a bit of a brighter picture though around tariff fears. And tariffs are definitely still a worry, but we’re past that point of peak fear. This month, over a third of consumers said they’re “very concerned” about tariffs—down from 43 percent in April, post Liberation Day. And fewer people are planning to cut back on spending because of them: that number is just 30 percent now, compared to over 40 percent a few months ago.
In fact, almost 30 percent of consumers actually plan to spend more despite tariffs. That’s a sign of resilience—and perhaps necessity—as families prepare for the school year.
And that brings us back to back-to-school shopping, which is a relative bright spot.
Nearly half of U.S. consumers have already shopped or are planning to shop for the school year—right in line with what we saw in previous years. Among those shoppers, 47 percent are spending more than last year, while only 14 percent plan to spend less. That’s a significant net positive at 34 percent.
What’s in the cart? More than 90 percent of shoppers are buying apparel, footwear, and school supplies. Apparel leads, followed by footwear, followed by supplies.
If we look beyond the classroom at other things people are spending on, travel is still a priority. Around 60 percent of consumers plan to travel over the next six months, with visiting friends and family as the top reason. That’s consistent with where we were a year ago and shows that experiences still matter—even in uncertain times.
The big takeaway from all this data: Consumer sentiment is cooling, but spending—especially spending for seasonal needs—is holding up. Back-to-school categories like apparel and footwear are outperforming, making them potential bright spots for retailers.
As we head into fall, keep your eyes on U.S. consumers. They’re not just shopping for school—they’re also signaling where the market could be headed next.
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