Macro Horizons

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of December 15th, 2025, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of December 8th, 2025, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

This week, the hosts dive into the recent ADP weakness and its implications for labor markets and Fed expectations. They analyze disappointing retail sales and what it means for core PCE momentum. Discussion turns to the uncertainty caused by government shutdowns, while they review Treasury yields and rising odds of Fed cuts. The hosts debate the Fed's focus on economy-wide versus asset-driven demand. They also highlight upcoming private indicators that could influence market expectations. A year-end yield target of 3.85% rounds out their insights.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of November 24th, 2025, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian and Ben discuss the reopening of the federal government and its implications for economic data. They analyze shifts in Treasury correlations and the limited macro impact of recent equity corrections. The conversation turns to potential December rate cuts and how the upcoming Fed chair nomination could shape monetary policy into 2026. They also address expectations for key economic data releases and a defined trading range for 10-year yields, along with the policy implications of reaccelerating growth and reduced trade uncertainties.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of November 10th, 2025, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian and Ben dive into the recent Fed rate cut and the implications of Powell's messaging on market expectations. They explore the impact of the government shutdown on data reliance and the Fed's transition away from quantitative tightening. The duo discusses potential outcomes for December cuts and the challenges of overly aggressive market pricing. Tariffs and their inflationary effects are examined, alongside a forecast for the upcoming Treasury auction sizes. Lastly, they highlight an upcoming Supreme Court decision that could introduce further economic uncertainty.

Ian and Ben dive into the U.S. rates market, sharing insights on CPI trends and the potential impacts of tariffs on holiday pricing. They discuss the fallout from the government shutdown affecting data clarity and explore expectations for interest rate cuts. The duo analyzes the treasury market's reaction to softer inflation reports and assesses macro risks, including the trade war's impact on the economy. To lighten the mood, they wrap up with some Halloween jokes, blending market talk with a touch of humor.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 20th, 2025, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 14th, 2025, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.