Macro Horizons The Grand Reopening
Nov 14, 2025
Ian and Ben discuss the reopening of the federal government and its implications for economic data. They analyze shifts in Treasury correlations and the limited macro impact of recent equity corrections. The conversation turns to potential December rate cuts and how the upcoming Fed chair nomination could shape monetary policy into 2026. They also address expectations for key economic data releases and a defined trading range for 10-year yields, along with the policy implications of reaccelerating growth and reduced trade uncertainties.
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Reopening Puts Data Back In Charge
- The government reopening shifts markets back to waiting for BLS data and data-dependent Fed decisions.
- Market now prices December cut as a coin flip pending incoming employment and inflation prints.
December Cut Is A Coin Flip
- A December 25bp cut is priced roughly 50/50 and remains data-dependent.
- Ian and Ben lean toward a 25bp cut but stress it's not a done deal.
New Chair Likely To Skew Dovish
- Incoming Fed chair nomination likely to tilt the committee dovish for 2026.
- That shift supports expectation of more easing over the year even if December is paused.