Complexity Premia

Exploring economic data, central banks yielding to politicians, ballooning budget deficits, and portfolio performance in this flash episode. Topics include Reserve Bank of Australia's inflation strategies, rate pass-through analysis, government budgets' impact on inflation, central banks' independence, market performance, credit fund returns analysis, and ETF outperformance.

In this podcast, they discuss April performance, the RBA's credibility crisis, and the anticipation towards US CPI data. Topics include market movements post data release, RBA board meeting insights, and analysis of communication contradictions. They also touch on challenges in inflation targeting, political risks for central banks, and the impact on global bond yields.

In this episode, they discuss the death of central bank independence and how monetary leaders are being influenced by politics. They explore the challenges of maintaining price stability targets and the impact of political pressures on central bank decisions. The conversation also delves into the Fed's response to inflation and wage growth, and the economic challenges faced by Australia. Additionally, they analyze the central bank's past warnings on inflation risks and provide an update on investment strategy performance.

Topics discussed include surge in Aussie and US inflation, dramatic increase in risk-free bond yields, putting equities and risky asset-classes on the precipice. Central banks struggling with managing inflation, potential rate hikes. Economic implications of inflation data in Australia, rise in core inflation. Global services inflation trends, central banks challenges. RBA monetary policy decisions, critique of decision-making process. Market response to inflation data, impact on US bond yields, implications for Fed and RBA decisions.

The hosts discuss the recent surge in global inflation and its impact on asset prices. They analyze household sector dynamics, global stagflation concerns, inflation trends, and historical bank failures, highlighting risks in commercial real estate and private credit markets.

Ying Yi, a portfolio management director, and Christopher Joye discuss the reacceleration of inflation, the implications for equities and bonds, shock credit rating upgrades for major bank bonds, portfolio outlook for 2024, and the conundrum of immaculate disinflation versus rebounding core inflation in this insightful podcast episode.

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this punchy new episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments, including: The key investment questions for 2024  Big asset-allocation shifts of out illiquids Stubborn services inflation driving a reacceleration in core inflation Interest rate risks are skewed to higher for longer Asset returns in January and February   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.  

The podcast discusses the returns in 2023, the outlook for 2024, markets priced for perfection with little downside risk insurance, and a deep dive on relative value across the capital structure.

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.  In this exciting new episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments shaping the current economic climate, including: Why the US Federal Reserve is making the RBA look like sleepy hollow What government bond yields around 5% pa mean for the pricing of all assets The emergence of big bank bond yields as much as 7.5% pa Why massive consumer savings buffers are delaying this hiking cycle Thinking about optimal asset-allocation between floating-rate and fixed-rate bonds Why fixed-rate bond duration is looking very attractive Why this default cycle is getting nastier and creating problems for loans and risky debt securities     This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.  

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.  In this unscripted episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments shaping the current economic climate, including: APRA’s new discussion paper on ways to improve the functioning of bank/insurer hybrids Reflections on what the Credit Suisse crisis means for the hybrid market Market performance in August and September  Rising appetite for fixed-rate bond duration NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey’s decision to slash debt issuance in FY24 Optimal asset-allocation and portfolio construction   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.