Episode 44: The Reacceleration of Inflation; What this Means for Equities & Bonds; Portfolio Outlook; Credit Rating Upgrades for Banks; the Conundrum if we get Immaculate Disinflation and CCI is wrong

Apr 10, 2024

Ying Yi, a portfolio management director, and Christopher Joye discuss the reacceleration of inflation, the implications for equities and bonds, shock credit rating upgrades for major bank bonds, portfolio outlook for 2024, and the conundrum of immaculate disinflation versus rebounding core inflation in this insightful podcast episode.

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Introduction

00:00 • 4min

Portfolio Performance Update and Strategy Highlights

03:49 • 3min

March Asset Pricing Drivers and Inflation Trends

06:38 • 10min

Insights on Credit Rating Upgrades and Sector Returns

16:32 • 5min

Analysis of Global Corporate Defaults and Impact on Risky Asset Classes

21:27 • 2min

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this punchy new episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi, a portfolio management director, discuss a range of important developments, including:

The reaccleration in inflation
The risk of an unwinding of the coincident bond and equity rally in March
Shock credit rating upgrades to major bank bonds and hybrids that Coolabah forecast in November 2023
Portfolio returns and the outlook for 2024
What happens to equities and bonds if the looming US CPI data confirms Coolabah's sticky services inflation thesis
The conundrum if we get immaculate disinflation and we are wrong about a rebound in core inflation

This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.