Perspectives

The word recession is hard to avoid these days. Despite the term being on the tips of everyone’s tongues, there still seems to be confusion about the basics. Is there going to be one? How bad will it be? How do you even define the term? Apparently even that old, go-to definition that a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth might not be entirely correct. So, in this episode we go back to basics for a primer on this seemingly nebulous economic term with the help of our guest, Scotiabank Chief Economist, Jean-François Perrault. Key moments in this episode: 1:08 — The definition of a recession and why it’s not necessarily what you might think 2:10 — Why a “quick and dirty” definition of a recession can be helpful 2:35 — Who declares whether there’s a recession in Canada? 3:23 — Why it’s only AFTER a recession that we can tell there’s been a recession 3:44 — What is a technical recession? 3:50 — A brief recession history lesson 4:31 — What historically often triggers recessions 5:15 — How long did past recessions last? 6:11 — What a recession in 2023 might look like if we have one 9:21 — What should people be worried about if there is a recession? 11:11 — How psychology and public perception plays into recessions 12:58 — When recessions usually occur in the economic cycle 13:50 — What can governments do to help with a recession? What should they avoid doing? 15:37 — If we have a recession, will we have a “soft landing”? 

Aside from the weather, gas prices might just be the most popular point of conversation for Canadians. Everyone seems to be an armchair expert on the subject.  In this episode, we explore what’s behind those ever-changing numbers at the pump with the help of Jennifer Stevenson from the Scotia Global Asset Management Investment Team. Key moments in this episode: 1:01 — The biggest factor when it comes to the cost at the pumps 1:53 — Why refineries are another large factor in gas prices 3:26 — Why there are so many unknowns in the process, from refinery to retail, that impact prices 5:01 — Gas stations often make more money from chocolate bars than gasoline 5:56 — Why there are fewer and fewer refineries  7:23 — How the war in Ukraine is affecting gas prices and why that may soon change 9:00 — A breakdown of why OPEC has reduced their supply recently 11:15 — Explaining Biden’s use of oil reserves 13:34 — Why a recession may be the only thing that slows energy prices

Canadians love getting free stuff. A big way to do that: collecting loyalty points. Over 90% of us belong to at least one program. And on average Canadians are enrolled in more than 12. In this episode Clinton Braganza, who oversees the rollout of the new Scene+ program at Scotiabank, provides us with an insider's look at loyalty programs in Canada, how they’ve evolved and where they’re headed.Key moments this episode: 1:24 — A brief intro to the customer loyalty space in Canada 1:48 — What kinds of free stuff do Canadians like? 2:34 — The digitization of loyalty programs 4:56 — How has inflation influenced how people use loyalty cards?  6:12 — The evolution of Scene+ 9:16 — What was the ultimate objective of creating Scene+? 10:26 — The biggest challenges in creating a new loyalty program 11:53 — The results so far of the Scene+ roll out 12:34 — Why loyalty programs are especially important during inflationary times 12:48 — Clinton’s all time favourite film  

The Bank of Canada surprised many with a smaller-than-expected rate hike of just 50 basis points. Scotiabank’s Chief Economist Jean-François Perrault is back to break down what this means and what the central bank is signaling about inflation and the economy ahead.Key moments this episode: 00:48 — First reactions: why this move is surprising and what it could signal 2:08 — How did we end up at this high of an interest rate? 3:05 — What impact will these rising interest rates have on daily life? 5:15 — Has employment been affected by interest rate increases? 6:35 — What is a monetary policy report and what did it say? 8:33 — What is a ‘technical recession’? 10:15 — What would a ‘technical recession’ mean for Canadians?

This episode we get a primer on what exactly the term ‘circular economy’ means, why it goes beyond recycling and the economic levers behind creating a sustainable system. Dan Yungblut, Head of Research and Chair of the ESG Investment Committee at Scotia Global Asset Management is our guest. Key moments this episode: 1:08 — What is a circular economy? 1:19 — How the circular economy goes beyond just recycling 2:02 — How long the idea has been around  2:30 — How the circular economy is being built into policy 3:01 — Two big pieces of policy that create incentives for reusing plastics  3:18 — What is extended producer responsibility?  5:37 — What can we learn about the circular economy from kids toys? 6:19 — What needs to happen for a circular economy to take hold? 7:48 — “There’s no such thing as a sustainable product, only a sustainable system.” 8:48 — Why is the circular economy on the radar of an asset management firm? 11:19 — What’s on the horizon for the circular economy 12:29 — What all this means for consumers' bottom line

Most COVID restrictions have long since lifted, but Canadian entrepreneurs are finding out “back in business” doesn’t necessarily mean “back to normal.” As we mark Small Business Month in October, we’re taking the pulse of that important sector of the Canadian economy with the help of Scotiabank’s Senior Vice President of Small Business, Jason Charlebois, and Dan Kelly, the President and CEO of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. Come back to the Perspectives page all month for more small business coverage. Key moments this episode: 1:27 — The mood of Canadian small business owners compared to a year ago 3:25 — Why businesses still have a long way to before being back to profitability 4:33 — What challenges small businesses now face with COVID restrictions lifted  5:36 — How entrepreneurs are dealing with interest rates and inflation 7:40 — Has the outpouring of support to small businesses during lockdowns carried over? 9:50 — How did lockdowns help with digitalizing business  12:57 — How the labour shortage is taking a massive bite out of businesses 14:00 — What advice does Charlebois has for small business owners? 15:20 — How they pandemic has changed how people approach work and what effect that has on small business 16:47 — What is at the crux of what the country needs to face current challenges

With political and economic turmoil in the news and the whole world asking, “Are we there yet?” about the end of interest rate hikes, it’s understandable that anyone with an eye on their money may be holding their breath. Andy Nasr, Scotia Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Officer returns this episode to explain how this has been affecting Canadian markets and maybe even find a silver lining.  Key moments this episode:  0:40 — Is Andy Nasr really this calm? 1:35 — Why investors around the globe are asking, “Are we there yet?” 2:38 — How is rising interest rates globally affecting the market? 4:50 — What should investors do when they see rates going up? 7:04 — Nasr’s expectation around a recession 7:40 — What’s the likelihood of a “soft landing”? 8:16 — How the latest developments from the war in Ukraine are affecting markets 9:16 — How long will this market volatility last? 9:48 — Why should investors care about what’s happening with the British Pound? 13:54 — Are there any silver linings here? 

From microchip shortages to volatile demand to supply chain issues — Canada’s auto sector has been through a lot the last few years. Scotiabank Economist Laura Gu is our guest this episode. She’ll answer our questions about why used car prices are up over 50% from pre-pandemic levels, the rental market and catch us up on the state of Canada’s auto sector. Key moments this episode:  0:58 — Quick summary of the rollercoaster ride over the last few years in the Canadian auto market 1:50 — Used car prices now vs pre-pandemic 2:25 — Are people still having to wait to get new vehicles? 3:09 — Microchip shortage 101 4:42 — What is just-in-time inventory and why is it used? 5:00 — What other factors are affecting supply and is that changing? 5:40 — What has all of this meant for vehicle prices? 6:18 — Why have used car prices gone up so much compared to new car prices? 7:42 — Rental car prices 8:42 — How healthy is Ontario’s auto industry? 10:03 — Where do we go from here? Will the price of vehicles come down again? 

It’s welcome news that inflation is easing – at 7% for August, down from 7.6% a month earlier – but what does this mean for interest rates and the Canadian economy overall?Scotiabank’s Chief Economist Jean-François Perrault returns this episode to discuss the latest inflation numbers and why interest rates are still expected to rise. While he doesn’t expect a recession ahead for Canada, he says inflation data from September and October are going to be critical and will set the tone for the country’s economy over the next year.Still trying to get your head around what inflation is in the first place? We have a whole episode dedicated to just that called Inflation 101.Key moments this episode:1:10 — Perrault’s take on what a 7% inflation rate means2:09 — What items contributed most to that rate3:54 — What’s comforting about the latest StatCan report4:55 — Why so much was riding on August inflation numbers and why the next few months are crucial5:47 — Taking a step back and looking at where inflation numbers have been lately6:24 — Why these numbers actually provide two sources of comfort for experts7:16 — How do the latest inflation numbers impact interest rate hikes?9:25 — The Prime Minister’s new inflation relief efforts and its impact. Will that increase inflation?12:07 — What's next when it comes to inflation numbers?12:47 — When is inflation going to get back to normal?13:54 — The r-word: recession. Is that where Canada is headed?15:22 — Why the hard data might contradict public feeling about a potential recession

Welcome new listeners! Here’s a quick sample of what you'll hear on Perspectives, Scotiabank’s weekly podcast.