The Real Estate Espresso Podcast

On today’s show we are talking about the movement of goods entering our country and how this might affect industrial real estate and jobs.The mainstream media have been widely reporting that shipping imports to the US are down by 64% in the first weeks of April. This is an example of how statistics can be used to sensationalize a narrative. Compared with the last week of March, it is true, shipments are down 64% from the week earlier. It’s also true, but not widely reported that shippers were rushing to complete imports to the US ahead of the April 2 tariff deadline. When you look at the long term averages, the number of ships leaving port for the US in early April is down about 10%. This is pretty consistent across the major carriers including MSC, Ocean Alliance, Gemini Cooperation and Premier Alliance. Gemini had the fewest cancellations at about 2% of their sailings cancelled and Premier Alliance had 18% of their sailings cancelled. So the thing to remember is that the pull back is based on a massive inventory build in the US ahead of the tariff implementation. Even if the tariffs had not been as dramatic as the April 2 announcement, the inventory build had already been done preemptively and we would have seen a drop in sailings anyway in the second quarter. Last week the US unveiled its new Maritime policy which is intended to remove China’s dominance of the global merchant marine fleet. The US produces less than 1% of the new ships each year and China about half of the world’s ships. China is manufacturing 50x more ships than the US. The thinking is that the US and indeed all countries will be dependent on China for delivery of essential goods into the country and therefore such dependence could be a major national security risk for the country. The US is struggling to manufacture new ships for its navy. Part of the struggle is based on the fact that you’re not going to be great at building navy ships if you’re not making any commercial ships and lack the skills to build commercial vessels. ---------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

I’m sharing what I’ve learned about managing change and how it might explain what we are seeing and experiencing in our daily lives. Early on in my career as a leader in the tech industry I took a bunch of courses on leadership. One of the course in my management training was on change management. The idea was that leaders need to become skilled at leading people through change and that change doesn’t just magically happen. There is a psychology to managing change and if you ignore it you are likely to fail at implementing change. You can divide people into four waves when it comes to embracing change.There are the Mavericks. These are the first to make a change, or to adopt a new technology. They represent maybe 5-10% of the population, depending on the nature of the change. Next are the early adopters. Then come the “show me” who represent the silent majority and finally the laggards who will only embrace the change kicking and screaming when there is no alternative. Any change will require engaging each of these audiences in that order. The early adopters won’t jump until the Mavericks have proven the feasibility, and the show me types will only jump in after the early adopters are sufficient in number to create the social proof. Finally, there are people who will resist the change kicking and screaming. The fact is, there tend to be people from all four of these groups at all levels in our society. Some are business owners. Some are factory floor workers. There are people from all four of these groups at all levels. Not surprisingly, leaders tend to be more represented in the Maverick and early adopter group, but that is not a hard and fast rule. The second thing to know about change is that change can reach a saturation point.I went through an experiential exercise in a class where each person in the class was asked to perform an exercise. We were asked to change one thing about our appearance. So some people would remove their jacket or take off their glasses. Then we were asked to change one more thing about our appearance, and then one more, and one more, and one more.....Many people reached a point where the change was emotionally too much for them to carry on changing more and more. They surmised that the changes would keep coming and they would be pushed beyond their comfort zone. Many people stopped participating long before hitting that threshold. This exercise taught me some powerful lessons about change management.The first few changes could be made easily with very little resistance. These first few changes are almost free and will be met with almost no opposition. Changes become more expensive emotionally.People will grumble before they hit the brakes. Saturation happens suddenly and the early warning signs should be paid attention to-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are looking back in history for the lessons of failed conquests. Napoleon attempted to economically cripple Great Britain by closing European ports to British goods. He believed this would destroy Britain's trade and force its surrender.Britain's powerful navy and widespread smuggling operations undermined the blockade. The system hurt the economies of France and its allies, leading to resentment and a desire to trade with Britain. Napoleon sometimes underestimated the resolve and capabilities of his opponents, particularly the Spanish resistance and the Russian winter.When a nation takes aim at a single adversary, it can trigger a cascade of alliances which the aggressor didn’t foresee.The current trade actions by the White House are accelerating the drive to form new alliances. If doing business with the US is more difficult, then countries that are dependent on exports will aim to find new customers and business elsewhere. It’s not as if the US is the only customer in the world for products. The liberation day announcement which called out more than 180 countries as enemies of the United States likely has the unintended consequence of stimulating countries that have been staunch supporters of the United States into forging new alliances. Whether these new alliances will merely augment their relationship with the US and act as a plan B contingency, or whether they will outright replace the US as an ally remains to be seen. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Hubert Johnson is a tax lawyer based in Tucson Arizona. His company Guardian Tax Law specializes in all aspects of tax compliance. On today's show we are talking about how to handle property that has an IRS lien attached to it. This could be a residential property, a commercial property, and includes properties with multiple ownership. To connect with Hubert visit https://guardiantaxlaw.com/ or call 520-526-9850----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Tim Edwards is based in Chico California from where he owns a large multi-state portfolio of apartments. On today's show we are talking about the lessons of prior real estate cycles and how those lessons apply to today's environment. To connect and to learn more, visit https://multifamilyassetadvisors.com/------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are talking about whether it’s better to be better, or better to be simple. Today’s episode is an embarrassing story that I’m going to share with you so that you can learn from our mistake. One of the consequences of working with really smart people is that you can often get caught up in the elegance of an ideal solution. There is something to be said for consistency. If you want to reduce the possibility of errors, then it makes sense to eliminate or at least reduce the number of choices. Each decision represents an opportunity for error, or for misunderstanding. Today's story was an attempt at driving consistency that had unintended consequences. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are talking about how to gain additional control over the expenses in your commercial buildings. Some buildings were designed with a single electric meter and a single water meter. This makes it difficult for a landlord to recoup the costs associated with these variable expenses. Some buildings use a RUBS method. RUBS is an acronym  which stands for Ratio Utility Billing System.Instead of each unit having its own meter to measure individual consumption, the total cost of the utility for the entire property is divided among the tenants based on a predetermined formula.  The problem with all of these methods is that the tenant is left wondering if they are paying more than their fair share of the utilities. If the landlord is watering the grass, then they wonder if the tenant is paying for excessive watering rather than their own direct utilization. It ends up being an irritant to tenants who never fully trust the monthly billing as being accurate. The other approach is to sub-meter. The building owner still gets a single bill for water, and for electricity. But by sub metering, the actual usage for each unit can be determined. -----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today is another AMA episode (Ask Me Anything). Today's question comes from Emanuel who writes:"How should new investors approach development of multifamily properties when construction costs are high but demand for rentals is steady?"--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are talking about a property that we placed an offer on, which is failing in due diligence. Failing in due diligence is one of two ideal outcomes. Of course we would prefer if a project met all of the criteria for investment, we would buy it at a substantial discount to the market value, and we would have lots of upside potential.Anything less and we would rather pass on the opportunity.The property itself has the potential to be a good investment opportunity. The artificial process that is being forced by the auction environment that the seller is trying to create is causing compounding the risks for the buyer. It’s that process which is compressing the timeframes and making proper due diligence impossible. I’m not at all worried about whether we could diligence the property and scope the remaining improvements. The property would need to be entirely rebranded and launched as a new offering in the market. The artificial constraints being imposed by the auction environment are disqualifying the property for us. Maybe said another way a cash buyer might have the appetite for the added risk, and perhaps in that sense, the auction process is disqualifying us as a buyer because we simply require more due diligence.--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show I want to share some guidance that I gave you on the podcast only a few days ago. I’m not here to trumpet anything or take a victory lap or anything like that. I’ve experienced a phenomenon whereby I will make a prediction or an observation on the podcast, and then behold a few days or a few weeks later, we’re reading about it in the Wall Street Journal. The purpose is to help you see what I’m seeing so that you can see it too.The unpredictability of the White House announcements over the past week has caused massive swings in the futures market which caused the basis trades to go against the hedge funds. This has caused hedge funds to dump bonds in order to cover their bank debt. They don't want to sell. They have to sell. The real risk is systemic risk to the banking system. If we see the Fed step in to protect the banking system in the coming days, we will know that the situation was severe enough to threaten the solvency of the banking system. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)