Fighting A War On Too Many Fronts

Apr 21, 2025

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On today’s show we are looking back in history for the lessons of failed conquests.

Napoleon attempted to economically cripple Great Britain by closing European ports to British goods. He believed this would destroy Britain's trade and force its surrender.

Britain's powerful navy and widespread smuggling operations undermined the blockade. The system hurt the economies of France and its allies, leading to resentment and a desire to trade with Britain.

Napoleon sometimes underestimated the resolve and capabilities of his opponents, particularly the Spanish resistance and the Russian winter.

When a nation takes aim at a single adversary, it can trigger a cascade of alliances which the aggressor didn’t foresee.

The current trade actions by the White House are accelerating the drive to form new alliances. If doing business with the US is more difficult, then countries that are dependent on exports will aim to find new customers and business elsewhere. It’s not as if the US is the only customer in the world for products.

The liberation day announcement which called out more than 180 countries as enemies of the United States likely has the unintended consequence of stimulating countries that have been staunch supporters of the United States into forging new alliances. Whether these new alliances will merely augment their relationship with the US and act as a plan B contingency, or whether they will outright replace the US as an ally remains to be seen.

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