The Real Estate Espresso Podcast

On today’s show we are wondering if governments and central banks in particular have any effect on the repairing the economy.  It’s a simple question really. If central banks can truly influence the economy, inflation and the unemployment rate, then why are central banks all behaving the same way at approximately the same time? Why is the bank of Canada going to lower interest rates later this week? Why did the ECB lower rates last week? Why did the Federal Reserve lower rates by half a point a month ago? Why did China’s central bank lower its benchmark rate by 25 basis points yesterday?  I mean seriously, have you ever wondered why all of these central banks are setting their interest rate policy in virtual lock step?  If the currency is being devalued at 2% per year, within the life of a 30 year Treasury, the value of that bond is reduced to 55.5% of the original face value of the bond within that 30 year period. This is a silent tax on consumers, on savers, and most importantly on the debt. The government needs that debt to be depreciated away. There is no magic behind the 2% number. It seems that 2% is large enough a number to have the debt whither away, but not so large as to cause a revolt among the population.  When consumer prices are rising at 9-15% as we saw in the wake of the pandemic, it’s enough to cause social unrest and for governments to get voted out of power.  But it’s curious that all of these disparate economies with vastly different governments are all experiencing falling consumer price indices. It’s not outright deflation, but is squarely in disinflationary territory. Can governments take the credit, or should they take the blame for printing money like drunken sailors?  

On today’s show we are talking about how to evaluate a bid from a subcontractor.  If you follow the procurement method used by most government departments, in the US and in Canada, the process makes sense.  Everyone needs to meet the minimum requirements. For all those who meet the minimum requirements, the purchaser will select the lowest bidder.  Intuitively this makes sense. But it puts the burden on the purchaser to specify every aspect that matters to the buyer.  My mentor Dr. Nido Qubein says that when the value is unclear, the discussion always degenerates to price. All other things being equal, then price would be the only remaining differentiator.  But some things are subjective and not just functional. When an architect designs a building for you, there is a complete set of drawings. These drawings are then supplemented by another document which details the specifications. In most of our projects, this spec document is somewhere between 600-800 pages in length. Even then, it doesn’t capture everything that we would want in the products used in our finished buildings.  The specifications fall into several categories. First there are those specifications that are required by the building code. Two of the most difficult items to specify are the product longevity and the product quality.  If you are specifying a paint, the paint can have different qualities of durability. What is the solid content of the paint?  What is the durability of a product? How many years will a wood floor finish last in a high traffic area?  Some products feel cheap, or look cheap even if they’re not. How do you specify that you don’t want the ceramic tile to look cheap?  -------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Hunter Webb is in Lisbon Portugal, where he is a principal at DeepRent.ai. On today's show we are talking about how artificial intelligence can automate the management of a portfolio of storage facilities. To connect with Hunter and to learn more, visit deeprent.ai ----------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Eddie Lack is originally from Sweden. He moved to North America to play professional hockey with the Vancouver Canucks, the Carolina Hurricanes, the Calgary Flames and the New Jersey Devils. Today Eddie is based in Scottsdale Arizona where he is building luxury homes. Not the typical career path into development. Eddie has built his skills methodically over time. To connect with Eddie visit eddielack.com --------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are taking a look at a couple of global companies. I’m reading front page articles in the WSJ and others suggesting that economists are thinking that the chance of recession in the foreseeable future is vanishing.  The world seems to have embraced a new form of double speak. ----------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are continuing our series on international outlook. There are many jurisdictions that position themselves as great retirement destinations. If you’re visiting, then you can usually stay in some places up to 90 days on a visitor visa before you need to leave. Some places allow up to six months. But if you’re looking for a location for a winter residence and want to stay longer than 90 or 180 days then you will likely need a residency visa.  Some countries offer a lengthy process for a residency visa. But if you’re willing to make an investment in the country, there is often an accelerated process.  Choosing a destination involves a number of considerations. What is the climate?  What is the culture?  Are you going to be welcome in the country and is it safe? Is the legal system going to be familiar with first world norms with fee simple title? One of the interesting locations is Panama. Panama has a  Qualified Investor Visa program that  grants you Panama permanent residency by investment. The Panamanian government has relaxed certain measures for foreign investors. First, it extended the availability of a reduced minimum investment amount of USD 300,000 for foreign nationals by another two years. -------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are taking another look overseas. We are accustomed to places where there is growth. We don’t really know how to invest in places where population is shrinking.  Today’s show is the story of Nadia. My wife and I met Nadia when we were on vacation in Mexico a few years ago. Nadia was born in Germany and she has lived in Ireland and the US. She married an Irishman who was in investment banking and moved to the US. The marriage didn’t last and Nadia found herself on her own. She has a few close friends and a few years ago she decided that she wanted to travel the world. But she didn’t have the funds to do it all. She figured that if she found a place in Europe that was inexpensive, she would have enough funds left over to travel as much as she wanted.  After all, destinations in Europe are very close and flights on discount carriers can be real bargains. Often the taxi ride to the airport is more expensive than the flight. Carriers like Easyjet and Ryan Air pioneered the discount carrier model in Europe. Today Air Berlin, Blu Express and many others offer amazing deals. So Nadia moved to Bulgaria an bought a home for 8,000 Euros. She put a few nickels into fixing it up and her total investment was around $20,000 Euros.  Today Nadia has a new boyfriend. He’s an Englishman and they spend their savings on traveling around Europe mostly. Next year they’re planning to visit Machu Pichu in Peru.  Now just in case you’re wondering if this is an outlier, I did some additional research. I searched for properties under $30,000 across Bulgaria and I found hundreds.  --------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are talking about why Germany’s economy seems to be stuck in reverse. We keep hearing about how Germany, which has traditionally considered the economic engine of Europe is struggling. The German government recently downgraded their economic outlook and are forecasting contraction well into next year. The ECB is forecast to drop rates this week in order to further stimulate the economy. But I believe Germany’s issues are structural.  Here are the factors that in my opinion represent significant structural headwinds for the German economy. These headwinds are not isolated to Germany. We are just seeing them align together all at once in a single location. -------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are talking about demographics and migration. This is a topic you’re going to hear a lot more about in the coming weeks and months. Demographics is like a law of physics when it comes to real estate investing. It’s like gravity.  It’s no surprise that fertility rates are well below the rate required to maintain population constant.  If you want to examine at what declining population looks like, you only need to look at Japan.  Japan’s fertility rate has been below the minimum 2.1 required to maintain population constant for a long time.  Japan’s population has been declining sharply for the past 15 years. There are now 11M empty, vacant homes in Japan.  So when we look at our future, we need to look at those places in the world where people have walked before us. Now some people are quick to dismiss the comparison. After all, Japan is nothing like North America. We tend to buy into the narratives that promote investing. We need to be very mindful of oversupply. When oversupply happens in a market, and when demand drops, bad things happen.  --------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Robby Butler is Director of Capital Markets at Y Street Capital. On today's show we are discussing some of the nuances of conversations with potential investors. How does a conversation become a consultative process versus a sales process? To connect with Robby you can find him on LinkedIn or at Y Street Capital www.ystreetcapital.com or email him directly at robby.butler@ystreetcapital.com. ----------------- **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)