Cross Tabs

In this post-nominating conventions episode, I reflect on lessons learned as we approach the last 60 days before the election. Some key themes include:How not to be a crosstab trutherWhy elections aren't really that much like marketsHow forecasts predict the pastWhy campaigns don't need one single message to win the whole thingAnd what you should do with your energy and effort if you're not using forecasts to earn a living.Tune in to gain a nuanced understanding of polling, forecasting, and political marketing as we head towards the election.There are 69 days to the 2024 election.Recommended Reading:"Mad Poll Disease Redux: Harris-Walz Edition" Weekend Reading by Mike PodhorzerYour Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn. Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts 0Spotify

Polling data and turnout models are far more complex than most people realize, with numerous factors influencing their accuracy and interpretation. From the challenges of non-response bias to the intricacies of early voting analysis, understanding election forecasts requires a nuanced approach beyond simple percentages. In this episode of Crosstabs, Farrah speaks with Dr. Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida. Dr. McDonald, known for producing the country's voter turnout rates, shares his expertise on the complexities of polling methodologies, the impact of demographic shifts on voting patterns, and the critical need for standardized election data collection across the United States. The conversation covers a wide range of topics, including the limitations of voter files, the challenges of predicting turnout, and the potential benefits of a national identity card for solving voter registration issues.  Resources Voter Turnout Gap in SurveysPerformance of American Elections SurveyElection Lab at UFCurrent Population Survey Voter and Registration SupplementCooperative Election SurveyUS Election Project (Michael McDonald’s Substack newsletter) Our Guest Dr. Michael McDonald is a professor of political science at the University of Florida and a renowned expert on American elections. He is best known for producing the United States Elections Project, which provides the country's most authoritative voter turnout statistics.  Dr. McDonald's work on early voting patterns and election administration has been widely cited in academic research and media coverage. His expertise extends to redistricting, voting rights, and the analysis of precinct-level election data. With a career spanning decades, Dr. McDonald has become a go-to source for understanding the complexities of the American electoral system and voter behavior.  Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple PodcastsSpotify

Public opinion polling has historically underrepresented Black Americans and other minority groups, leading to skewed perceptions of national sentiment. Emotional responses to political issues and candidates play a crucial role in shaping voter behavior, yet are often overlooked in traditional survey methods. Dr. Camille Burge-Hicks, Associate Professor of Political Science at Villanova University, discusses the evolution of political polling and its impact on Black communities. She shares insights on the importance of qualitative research in understanding voter motivations, the need to update outdated survey measures, and the potential for emotional factors to influence voters. The conversation also touches on the challenges of accurately representing diverse populations in polls and the responsibility of both pollsters and the public in interpreting survey results.  Resources Polling and the Public by Herbert AsherHistoric Firsts by Evelyn SimienThe Philadelphia Negro by W.E.B. Du Bois and Isabel EatonNational Survey of Black AmericansNational Black Election StudyNational Black Politics StudyCollaborative Multi-Racial Post-Election Study (CMPS) Data Black Public Opinion Polls Our Guest Dr. Camille Burge-Hicks is an Associate Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science at Villanova University. Her research focuses on political psychology, race and ethnicity in American politics, and the role of emotions in shaping political behavior. Dr. Burge-Hicks is particularly interested in exploring how group identities and emotional experiences influence public opinion and political decision-making among Black Americans and other minority groups. Her forthcoming book, Fired Up, Ready to Go: Pride, Shame, and Anger in Black Politics, examines the intersection of emotions and racial identity in political engagement.  Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Federal statistical agencies play a crucial role in providing objective, high-quality data that inform policy decisions, resource allocation, and business strategies across the United States. However, these agencies face significant challenges, including budget constraints, declining response rates, and the need to modernize data collection methods while maintaining data integrity and privacy. In this episode, Farrah interviews Connie Citro, a senior scholar at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Citro discusses the findings from a recent report, "The Nation's Data at Risk," which assesses the health of federal statistical agencies. She explains the historical development of these agencies, their importance in providing reliable data for both public and private sectors, and the potential consequences of underfunding and political interference. The conversation covers topics such as data sharing between agencies, the impact of non-response on survey quality, and the need for greater public awareness of federal statistics' value. Resources The Nation's Data at Risk  National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES)  Fundamental Principles for Official Statistics  Census Project  Principles and Practices for a Federal Statistical Agency  Our Guest Connie Citro is a distinguished expert in federal statistics with over four decades of experience in the field. She served for many years as the director of the Committee on National Statistics at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, where she now continues as a senior scholar. Throughout her career, Citro has been involved in numerous studies on critical statistical issues, including decennial census methodologies, poverty measurement, and the American Community Survey. Her extensive knowledge and experience make her a leading voice in discussions about the health and future of the U.S. federal statistical system.   Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Immersive gaming exercises offer a powerful tool for understanding complex geopolitical scenarios and developing strategic empathy. They provide insights that traditional analysis often misses. By inhabiting different perspectives and grappling with real-world constraints, participants gain a deeper appreciation for the multifaceted nature of global challenges and decision-making processes. In this episode of Crosstabs, Farrah talks to Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Amal Ali of Valens Games about their innovative approach, going beyond wargaming and scenario planning to more immersive strategic experiences. They discuss how their exercises help leaders break free from cognitive biases, explore alternative futures, and gain insight into complex political and social dynamics. We talk about the potential applications of these techniques to the current political situation, offering listeners a fresh perspective on analyzing and preparing for uncertain futures. Resources Influence by Robert Cialdini Ezra Klein's episode on an open Democratic convention:  Sarah Longwell's The Focus Group at The Bulwark Valens Games war games Our Guests Daveed Gartenstein-Ross Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is the founder and CEO of Valens Games. He is a practitioner, scholar, and entrepreneur whose career has focused on analyzing complex 21st-century challenges and forging laudable solutions to them. Daveed is also the author or volume editor of over 30 books and monographs, including Enemies Near and Far (Columbia University Press, 2022), which examines ISIS and al-Qaeda’s processes of engaging in organizational learning. He is on the faculty at Carnegie Mellon University and Duke University. Amal Ali Amal Ali serves as the Senior Vice President of Strategy at Valens Games, where she specializes in engaging with government and public sector clients. Her career spans military service, intelligence work, and strategic consulting. Ali is a military veteran with experience in the U.S. intelligence community, including work at the agency level and supporting Army and joint special operations. Ali's background in intelligence analysis, coupled with her cross-cultural understanding, informs her approach to game design and facilitation at Valens Games. In her role, she focuses on developing immersive exercises that help decision-makers gain new perspectives on complex geopolitical challenges.  Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience in research and strategy for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions. Connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify 

Political polling, especially among minority communities hasn't always had a great track record of representation, and of deep understanding of racial dynamics and ways different communities interact with ideas of civic participation. This conversation explores how allegiance to one's country and sense of belonging shape political participation, challenging more simplistic ideas about what kinds of participation matter, and why people do it. Dr. Ray Block, a professor at Penn State who also studies "truth decay" at the RAND Corporation, brings his expertise in social identity and political involvement to the discussion. He shares insights on the evolving landscape of polling, the importance of community-focused research, and the role of protest in American democracy. Together we explore the nuances of political engagement, offering a fresh perspective on how we understand and measure civic participation.  Resources Dr Block's Allegiance and Belonging Study Google’s work on “Understanding America’s Interested Bystander”Presentation at Personal Democracy Forum 2015African American Research Collaborative: https://africanamericanresearch.us/ Our Guest Ray Block Jr., Ph.D., is senior research advisor for the African American Research Collaborative. He has led their research design on a range of polls, including research involving elections, health policy, and African Americans’ policy goals. Block is also the Brown-McCourtney Endowed Career Professor at the McCourtney Institute for Democracy and associate professor of Political Science and African American Studies at Pennsylvania State University. Block received his B.A. in philosophy and political science from Howard University and his Ph.D. in political science from The Ohio State University. Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify Sign up for our newsletter at crosstabspod.substack.com to receive exclusive content, episode highlights, and behind-the-scenes insights delivered to your inbox. 

The shadowy world of online survey fraud threatens to undermine market research. Sophisticated scammers exploit programmatic sample systems lacking fraud controls to skew results. As the industry grapples with this growing problem, researchers must adopt new technologies and partnerships to ensure data quality and maintain trust. In this episode of Crosstabs, host Farrah Bostic continues her conversation with Rich Ratcliff, Chief Trust Officer at Opinion Route. They discuss the challenges of detecting and preventing survey fraud in the digital age, the importance of choosing the right sample partners, and the potential impact of AI – both positively and negatively – on research. Ratcliff emphasizes the need for researchers to embrace new technologies and partnerships to combat fraud while maintaining the human element in market research. Researchers will want to hear Ratcliff’s valuable advice on how to navigate the evolving landscape of online surveys and data collection to ensure our careful designs aren’t undermined by fraudulent respondents. Resources ResTech Landscape Map: https://www.restecher.com/landscape/  "The Sample Bubble in the Form of a Conference Recap" https://www.opinionroute.com/blog/samplecon-2024-highlights-2-2/ "Securing the Survey Link": https://www.opinionroute.com/dataquality/securing-the-survey-link-2/   Our Guest Rich Ratcliff is the Chief Trust Officer at OpinionRoute, a company that delivers accurate data by utilizing expertise in online survey sampling and proprietary technology solutions to simplify research processes, which enables clients to scale and researchers to stay ahead in a dynamic and competitive market. Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn. Stay Connected Cross Tabs website & newsletter: https://www.crosstabspodcast.com Sign up for our newsletter to receive exclusive content, episode highlights, and behind-the-scenes insights delivered to your inbox. Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify 

The multi-billion dollar online survey industry is rife with fraud, from individual survey hackers to sophisticated crime rings, exploiting the system for profit. Uncover the hidden world of survey fraud and learn how misaligned incentives, fragmented processes, and technological innovations meant to improve feasibility have led to an present threat of bogus respondents and invalid data.In this riveting episode of Cross Tabs, guest Rich Ratcliff, Chief Trust Officer at OpinionRoute, joins host Farrah Bostic to expose the seedy underbelly of the market research industry. Rich shares his extensive knowledge gleaned from 30 years in the business, including firsthand experience interviewing survey fraudsters. Together, they explore the evolution of sampling methods, the unintended consequences of programmatic sampling, and the critical importance of data quality in an era of widespread survey fraud.ResourcesInside the Minds of Survey Fraudsters — Fascinating videos from Ratcliff's interviews with survey hackers about their techniquesISO 20252 - https://www.iso.org/news/ref2369.html — The research ISO for quantitative research, which is 50 pages long and important for understanding data qualityInsights Association — Data Integrity Initiative OpinionRoute — an online survey operations company that helps market researchers eliminate the operational surprises and delays that disrupt projects using a blend of technology and human expertise.Our GuestRich Ratcliff is the Chief Trust Officer at OpinionRoute, a company that delivers accurate data by utilizing expertise in online survey sampling and proprietary technology solutions to simplify research processes. This enables clients to scale and researchers to stay ahead in a dynamic and competitive market.Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at https://www.thedifferenceengine.co/ , a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.Website & newsletter: https://www.crosstabspodcast.com -- Sign up for our newsletter to receive exclusive content, episode highlights, and behind-the-scenes insights delivered to your inbox.

Political polling operates in a landscape shaped by evolving methodologies, true demographic shifts, and the challenges of capturing accurate data in the digital age. What sample source you draw from, what sample frame you use, how you design your survey questions — all of it can affect the outcome of a survey.In this episode, Farrah Bostic speaks with Andrew Mercer, a senior research methodologist at the Pew Research Center. Mercer shares his expertise on the intricacies of political polling, including the rise of mixed-method surveys, the impact of bogus responding in online, opt-in sample, the nuances of question design, and the importance of transparency. The conversation offers valuable insights for anyone seeking to navigate the world of political polling (or other survey research) with a more critical eye.ResourcesNational Public Opinion Reference Survey – Pew ResearchStudy on PartyID by Pew Research CenterHow Public Opinion Polling Has Changed in the 21st Century - Pew ResearchOnline opt-in polls can produce misleading results, especially for young people and Hispanic adults - Pew ResearchOur GuestAndrew Mercer is a senior research methodologist at Pew Research Center. He is an expert on probability-based online panels, nonprobability survey methods, survey nonresponse, and statistical analysis. His research focuses on methods of identifying and correcting bias in survey samples. He leads the Center's research on nonprobability samples and co-authored several reports and publications.He also served on the American Association for Public Opinion Research's task force on Data Quality Metrics for Online Samples. He has authored blog posts and analyses, making methodological concepts such as margin of error and oversampling accessible to a general audience.Prior to joining the Center, Mercer was a senior survey methodologist at Westat. He received a bachelor's degree in political science from Carleton College and a master's and doctoral degrees in survey methodology from the University of Maryland. His research has been published in Public Opinion Quarterly and the Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology.Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into practical strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.‌Website & newsletter: https://www.crosstabspodcast.com — Sign up for our newsletter to receive exclusive content, episode highlights, and behind-the-scenes insights delivered to your inbox.

The battle for political salience is heating up as campaigns push competing narratives ahead of the 2024 election. But what do the latest polls really tell us about the mood of the electorate and the issues driving their vote? In this episode of Cross Tabs, Aaron Zitner, editor and reporter in the Washington Bureau of the Wall Street Journal, joins host Farrah Bostic to discuss the Wall Street Journal's polling program. Zitner shares insights on the shifting coalitions, voter turnout patterns, and issue priorities that could decide the election, and offers advice on how to be a savvy consumer of polls in a highly unpredictable political environment.ResourcesPoll: Election interest hits new low in tight Biden-Trump race (NBC News)Five Takeaways From the WSJ Swing-State Poll (Wall Street Journal)Survey of Consumers (University of Michigan)What Happened™ In 2022 (Catalist)Harvard Youth PollOur GuestAaron Zitner is a reporter and editor in The Wall Street Journal's Washington bureau, focusing largely on how politics are driven by demographic and economic change. He also reports on trends in polling. Earlier, he was the Journal's national politics editor.Previously, Aaron was deputy chief of the Washington bureau for the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune and other Tribune newspapers. He helped lead presidential campaign coverage for the Los Angeles Times and served as the paper’s White House and Washington economics editor.Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at https://www.thedifferenceengine.co/ and connect with Farrah at https://www.linkedin.com/in/farrahbostic/.Stay ConnectedWebsite & newsletter: https://www.crosstabspodcast.comSign up for our newsletter to receive exclusive content, episode highlights, and behind-the-scenes insights delivered to your inbox.