Cross Tabs

Most voters make election decisions based on limited information and fleeting moments of attention, not careful analysis of policies and positions - even for a presidential race with billions spent on campaigning. The disconnect between how political insiders discuss elections versus how typical voters engage with them leads to fundamental misunderstandings about voter behavior and campaign effectiveness. Natalie Jackson, political analyst and pollster, shares insights from her work on down-ballot campaigns and her recent National Journal article examining voter engagement. Drawing on focus group research and polling data, she discusses how campaigns must adapt messaging for different districts, why negative partisanship strategies don't always work, and the challenges women face in gaining recognition as polling experts despite often leading the actual research teams. Resources National Journal https://www.nationaljournal.com/search/?a=Natalie%20Jackson  Financial Times (FT) chart https://www.ft.com/  Kaiser Family Foundation polling https://www.kff.org/2024-survey-of-women-voters-dashboard-june-initial-survey/  Sarah Longwell's focus groups https://www.thebulwark.com/s/thefocusgroup   YouGov polls https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50960-how-americans-have-reacted-to-donald-trumps-2024-victory   AAPC post-election event https://theaapc.org/education-events/2024-post-mortem-event-2/   FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast https://fivethirtyeight.com/podcasts/  Our Guest Natalie Jackson, PhD, is Vice President at GQR. She has spent nearly two decades developing extensive expertise in survey research, methodology, and political polling. Her research on how people form opinions, as well as on the election polling and forecasting landscape has appeared in peer-reviewed journals and edited volumes, and she has a weekly column on data politics called Leading Indicators at National Journal. Prior to joining GQR, she was Director of Research at PRRI and Managing Director of Polling at Just Capital. Earlier in her career, she held senior and management positions at the Marist Institute for Public Opinion and The Huffington Post. She is an active member for the American Association for Public Opinion Research, serves on the council for the National Capitol Area Political Science Association, and co-chairs the Careers Diversity Committee for the American Political Science Association. She is on the editorial boards of Social Science Quarterly and PS: Political Science and Politics. Natalie received her PhD in political science from the University of Oklahoma and was a postdoctoral associate at the Duke University Initiative on Survey Methodology. Her BA in political science and history is from West Texas A&M University. She enjoys life in Washington, DC with her cats, but you might also find her hiking in Alaska or the Hudson Valley of New York. Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn. Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify 

Modern political polling faces fascinating challenges beyond simple statistical accuracy - from voters who strategically misrepresent their views to express partisan loyalty, to the complex task of predicting who will actually show up to vote. Despite popular perception of a deeply divided America, research suggests voters are far more moderate on individual issues than their partisan voting behavior would indicate. Brian Schaffner, professor at Tufts University and Co-Director of the Cooperative Election Study (CES), joins Farrah on Cross Tabs to discuss the evolution of political polling methodology. He shares insights from running one of the largest academic election surveys, which interviews 60,000 Americans during election years. The conversation covers innovations in online polling, the science of predicting voter turnout, and how political campaigns are increasingly embracing data-driven decision making. Schaffner addresses common misconceptions about polling accuracy and explains why it takes months after an election to fully understand voting patterns and demographic shifts.  Resources Tufts University Cooperative Election Study (CES) https://tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-faculty/research-centers/cooperative-election-study Interactive Visualization Tools from CES https://tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-faculty/research-centers/cooperative-election-study/ces-quick-tools QAnon and Conspiracy Beliefs Report by Brian Schaffner https://www.isdglobal.org/isd-publications/qanon-and-conspiracy-beliefs/ Financial Times, “Democrats join 2024’s graveyard of incumbents” https://www.ft.com/content/e8ac09ea-c300-4249-af7d-109003afb893 Mike Podhorzer’s Weekend Reading “Is this What Democracy Looks Like?” https://www.weekendreading.net/p/is-this-what-democracy-looks-like  Our Guest Brian Schaffner is the inaugural Newhouse Professor of Civic Studies in the Department of Political Science and Tisch College at Tufts University. He is also Co-Director of the Cooperative Election Study, the largest academic survey of the American public and a core resource for academic researchers and the news media for understanding public opinion and American elections.  Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Immersive simulations and war games are transforming how organizations make complex decisions and understand human behavior, with artificial intelligence now making these powerful tools more accessible than ever. By putting participants in realistic scenarios with emotional stakes, these games reveal blind spots in thinking, challenge assumptions, and build cognitive empathy across divides. This episode features Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Eleanor Ross of Valens Games, who discuss their work creating sophisticated political and national security simulations. They share insights on using AI to democratize game design, the importance of incorporating humor and humanity into serious scenarios, and how simulations can help bridge social divisions by encouraging participants to see issues from multiple perspectives. The conversation touches on applications ranging from academic teaching to corporate decision-making, highlighting how games create safe spaces for practicing high-consequence choices. Resources Crossing the Chasm by Geoffrey Moore https://a.co/d/5IJOIdS    War Game (Documentary) https://www.imdb.com/title/tt26681810/   Providence (Platform) http://providence.valensgames.com/Acceleration (Game) https://valensglobal.com/what-we-do/simulations-hub/wargames-simulations/  Our Guests Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is the founder and CEO of Valens Games, pioneering the use of immersive simulations and AI-powered game design in national security, politics, and organizational decision-making. A counterterrorism expert who previously led the drafting of the Department of Homeland Security's 2019 counterterrorism strategy, Gartenstein-Ross transitioned from teaching at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program to developing innovative educational gaming experiences that help participants challenge assumptions and think differently about complex challenges. Eleanor Ross joined Valens Games after first experiencing their work as a student at Duke University, where she participated in and then team-led national security simulations. With a research background and plans to enter government service, Ross was drawn to Valens Games' unique approach to learning and now helps develop immersive exercises that build cognitive empathy and critical thinking skills. She specializes in creating engaging narratives and characters that make complex scenarios more approachable and meaningful for participants. Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify 

Despite decades of political polling and analysis, most voters know almost nothing about politics, policy, or current events - and traditional campaign strategies completely fail to account for this reality. The key to winning elections isn't policy positions or positive messaging, but rather effectively defining your opponent before they can define you. Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, political analyst and author of Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts, joins Farrah Bostic to break down why Democratic campaign strategies are fundamentally flawed and what actually moves voters. Drawing from her experience as a pollster and strategist, Bitecofer explains how Republicans have mastered "negative partisanship" messaging while Democrats continue to waste resources on micro-targeting and policy-focused campaigns that don't reach or resonate with most voters. She argues that Democrats must adopt more effective branding and messaging strategies that speak to voters' immediate concerns and fears, rather than assuming an informed and engaged electorate that doesn't exist.  Resources Hit 'Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game by Rachel Bitecofer - https://a.co/d/9gcRHxM  It Was All a Lie by Stuart Stevens - https://a.co/d/hDkoAoJ  Virginia Governor Poll Study (2019-2020) by Rachel Bitecofer - https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/2019-10-07-va-leg-1/  Partisan Response Study by Rachel Bitecofer - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3414607 The Next Level Podcast featuring Sarah Longwell -  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-next-level/id1647085571  Blueprint Research - https://blueprint2024.com/about/  Our Guest Rachel Bitecofer is a political analyst, strategist, and author of Hit Them Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game. After a career in academia where she taught political science and ran a survey research center, Bitecofer shifted to focus on reforming Democratic campaign strategy. Known for her theory of negative partisanship and accurate electoral predictions, she argues that traditional Democratic campaign approaches fundamentally misunderstand voter psychology and behavior.  Unlike conventional pollsters and analysts, she emphasizes that most voters are largely uninformed about politics and make decisions based on emotional triggers rather than policy positions. Bitecofer has worked with the Democratic National Committee to implement more effective messaging strategies and regularly provides commentary on political campaigns and electoral dynamics.  Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify 

In this episode, Farrah talks to the Chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project, Anil Cacodcar, about the origins and evolution of the Poll, which was started by students in 2000. We discuss the process the student team uses to develop survey questions, organize research topics, and partner with the Ipsos Knowledge Panel to reach young respondents.We also discuss insights from the latest poll data, including a shift in enthusiasm among young Democrats after Kamala Harris joined the ticket, the gender gap in candidate perceptions, and the role of factors like candidate characteristics and social media in shaping youth opinion.We also discussed challenges in measuring the impact of media consumption and events on young voters' opinions in the current information landscape, and get Anil's perspective on the future of youth polling and what he'll be watching for in the upcoming election.Throughout the conversation, we explore the complexities of understanding and reaching the youth electorate, as well as the importance of qualitative research to complement polling data.After the interview, Farrah shares some reflections on the last 2 weeks of the polling landscape — and why you should avert your gaze to other more pressing matters: like defending the votes that are already being cast.Our Guest:Anil Cacodcar, is an undergraduate student at Harvard and Chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project, which runs the nation's largest poll on the political opinions and civic attitudes of young Americans. He studies both Economics and Human Developmental & Regenerative Biology. Resources:The latest Harvard Youth Poll Harvard Public Opinion Project "Americans under 21 first voted 50 years ago. It didn’t go as expected." The Washington PostUS Elections ProjectYour Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify 

Political polling and forecasting are complex and fraught with uncertainty, yet they remain crucial tools for understanding elections and voter behavior. The challenge lies in accurately modeling likely electorates, communicating probabilities to the public, and interpreting correlations between issues and voting patterns. In this episode, Farrah talks to John Sides, a political scientist and professor at Vanderbilt University. Sides discusses the difficulties in surveying young voters, the limitations of issue-importance questions in polls, and his ideal dataset for studying voter behavior across election cycles. He emphasizes the need for more nuanced interpretations of polling data and forecasts, urging us all to embrace uncertainty while still finding value in the data.  Resources Good AuthorityBy John Sides:'Another viral gender gap graph doesn’t tell the whole story’'What voters say is important doesn’t actually affect their vote' Our Guest John Sides is a distinguished political scientist and professor in the Department of Political Science at Vanderbilt University. His research focuses on political behavior, public opinion, and the dynamics of American elections. Sides is also a co-founder of Good Authority, a publication that brings academic insights to bear on current political issues. Previously, he was a founding editor of The Monkey Cage, a popular political science blog that was later published by The Washington Post.  Sides is known for his data-driven approach to analyzing political trends and his ability to communicate complex political concepts to a general audience. He has authored several books on American politics and elections, including The Gamble and Identity Crisis, which examined the factors behind Donald Trump's 2016 election victory.  Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify 

Quick production note: Farrah's audio gets better a couple of minutes into the recording. We have no idea what went wrong, but you'll only suffer for a few minutes before everyone sounds great. :) In this episode, host Farrah Bostic explores the fascinating relationship between journalism and polling, inspired by the book Lost in a Gallup, with its author, Professor W. Joseph Campbell. We discuss the historical evolution of polling from its early days, marked by the Literary Digest's infamous 1936 failure, to the upstart methodologies of Gallup, Roper, and Crossley. The conversation highlights the love-hate relationship between journalists and pollsters, exploring the mutual benefits and tensions that have shaped their interactions over decades. We also examine major polling failures, including the 1948 Dewey-Truman election, and the complexities of modern polling methods. The episode emphasizes the human desire for prediction and the underlying challenges of accurately gauging public opinion in an ever-evolving media landscape.Our GuestW. Joseph Campbell is a former newspaper and wire service journalist who reported from four continents in an award-winning twenty-year career. He is currently professor emeritus at American University's School of Communication, and is the author of Lost in a Gallup (2020), Getting It Wrong (2010, 2017), and 1995: The Year the Future Began (2015) among other works.Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify 

This week we're taking a break from national polling to talk about polling done by a group trying hard to influence the outcome of various races this cycle: crypto bros. The influence and agenda of the crypto industry is lurking behind a lot of the candidates and their policy positions. Crypto PACs are raising and spending over $100 million on 2024 races. It's in crypto's interests to portray itself as representing a large voting bloc who will vote based on a candidate's position on crypto — via industry-funded polls making claims about American's crypto behavior and beliefs. They seem to be cutting through: the RNC adopted an entire plank of crypto-industry pet positions into their party platform.Who better to talk through these polls, PACs, and policy positions than cryptoresearcher Molly White. She joins me to break down the way the industry is trying to persuade through polls, and why we need more journalists and politicos to bring a much higher level of scrutiny to industry polling.ResourcesCitation Needed - a newsletter featuring explainers of developments in the cryptocurrency industry. We talked about this article.Web3 Is Going Great - a project to track examples of blockchains/crypto/web3 technology projects that aren't going very well.Follow the Crypto"The Black Investors Who Were Burned by Bitcoin", The AtlanticPew Research report on cryptoAdam Tooze on crypto & the GOPOur guestMolly White is a researcher, software engineer, and prominent critic of cryptocurrencies and blockchain-based projects. She is best known for her website Web3 is Going Just Great, which documents only some of the many disasters in the cryptocurrency and web3 industries, and for her Follow the Crypto election spending tracker.Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn. Subscribe to Cross Tabs Apple PodcastsSpotifySubstack

Forecasting election outcomes involves far more than simple polling averages, often incorporating complex models that account for candidate strengths, voter demographics, and historical trends. While these models strive for accuracy, they must grapple with the inherent unpredictability of human behavior and the challenge of quantifying intangible factors like voter enthusiasm and candidate quality. In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah Bostic interviews Lakshya Jain, a co-founder of the elections blog Split Ticket. Jain offers insights into the intricacies of election modeling, discussing the limitations of polls, the importance of cross-tabs, and the value of embracing uncertainty in forecasts. He also touches on the recent shift from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee, exploring how this change has reshaped polling data and electoral predictions. Resources Split Ticket: https://split-ticket.orgSplit Ticket's Presidential Polling AggregatorWe Dug Into the 2024 Polling Crosstabs. What We Found Was Stunning. (Lakshya Jain and Harrison Lavelle in Politico)How #electiontwitter took over the political prediction game (Financial Times)How The Times/Siena Poll Is Conducted (The New York Times) Pollster Ratings (FiveThirtyEight) Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecastOur Guest Lakshya Jain is a machine learning engineer who analyzes political data in his free time. He handles modeling, data pieces, and presidential ratings for Split Ticket. Jain graduated from UC Berkeley with a BA in 2019 and an MS in 2020, majoring in computer science. He currently works in the tech industry. His political analysis and writing have appeared in prominent publications such as The New York Times, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and The Bulwark. Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn. Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify

America's political landscape is deeply divided into two distinct nations, shaped by historical, economic, and cultural forces that extend far beyond simple demographics. This divide manifests in vastly different lived experiences, policy preferences, and institutional structures between red and blue states, with profound implications for the future of American democracy and governance. In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah Bostic interviews Mike Podhorzer, a political strategist and data analyst, to discuss Podhorzer's excellent analysis of The Two Americas, examining how factors like regional factionalism, economic models, religious institutions, and labor unions have contributed to the current political polarization. The conversation covers the limitations of traditional polling methods, the role of exogenous events in shaping political alignments, and the potential for collective action to address systemic issues in American politics.  Resources "The Limits of Education Essentialism" by Mike Podhorzer"The Two Nations of America" by Mike Podhorzer"As Go Unions, So Goes America" by Mike PodhorzerKnow Your Enemy podcast episode The Bomb PowerCook Political Report podcast episode What Polls Miss - And What We Should Focus On Instead Our Guest Mike Podhorzer is a renowned political strategist and data analyst with decades of experience in labor politics and progressive causes. He served as the longtime political director of the AFL-CIO, where he pioneered innovative approaches to voter mobilization and data-driven campaigning.  Podhorzer is widely recognized for his insightful analysis of American political trends, particularly his work on the "Two Americas" concept, which examines the deep structural divides in U.S. politics. His writing and research have contributed significantly to understanding the complexities of modern American political landscapes beyond traditional polling metrics. Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify