Cross Tabs

Farrah is joined by Kevin Collins, co-founder and Chief Research Officer at Survey 160, about the applicability of AI in survey methodologies, the perils of synthetic sample, and the importance of respondent preferences when it comes to survey mode and the respondent experience. We discussed Kevin's findings in some early explorations of available tools about the impact on data quality, the potential role of AI in coding open-ended survey responses, and where there might be opportunity for AI tools to support but not replace human expertise. We also explored an issue we both have some opinions about - the concept of 'popularism' in political campaigning, how it intersects with different styles of persuasion, and how it influences other decision-making in how campaigns roll out messaging.Our GuestKevin Collins is co-founder and Chief Research Office at Survey 160, a polling firm working to make SMS-based survey collection a staple mode of research to help fuel progressive campaigns. Survey 160 works with high-profile political campaigns at both the national and state level, as well as advocacy organizations and other groups working for a brighter future. You can connect with him on Bluesky @kwcollins.bsky.social or through their website at https://www.survey160.com/Read their work on AI in survey methods here: The Limits of Simulation in Public Opinion ResearchOther Sources MentionedOut of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples, by Argyle et alPredicting Results of Social Science Experiments Using Large Language Models, by Hewitt et alSynthetic Replacements for Human Survey Data? The Perils of Large Language Models, by Bisbee et alDo AIs know what the most important issue is? Using language models to code open-text social survey responses at scale, by Mellon et alContext Length Alone Hurts LLM Performance Despite Perfect Retrieval, by Du et alDoes AI Actually Boost Developer Productivity? (100k Devs Study) - Yegor Denisov-Blanch, Stanford [video]Does accommodation work? Mainstream party strategies and the success of radical right parties, by Krause et alThe Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion, by John R. Zaller [book]Consuming Cross-Cutting Media Causes Learning and Moderates Attitudes: A Field Experiment with Fox News Viewers, by David E. Broockman and Joshua L. KallaStay in Touch📬 Subscribe to our newsletter at crosstabspodcast.com for new episodes, insights, and behind-the-scenes content.📹 Watch video episodes on YouTube @CrosstabsPodcast💬 Follow us on BlueSky: @crosstabspod.bsky.social and @farrahbostic.bsky.social📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

In this episode of Cross Tabs, host Farrah Bostic discusses the intricacies of the current political climate and the emotional toll with guest Lauren Goldstein, author of the 'Mind the Gap' newsletter. The conversation touches on the overwhelming events of the last month, including ICE raids, National Guard actions, and the shutdown. Lauren shares her own struggles with the civic mood and together they explore the concept of thermostatic public opinion and the pitfalls of modern political strategy, including the need for a more authentic and proactive approach. But all is not lost! We discuss the necessity for Democrats to focus on how to not merely win the next election, but to build a better future grounded in authenticity, intentionality, and a shared vision.Our Guest Lauren Goldstein is the lead advocacy pollster for Change Research and holds a PhD from UCLA with ten years of experience as a public opinion researcher and social scientist. She has done extensive research and polling on issues related to racial justice (and injustice), criminal legal reform and police divestment, immigration, and reproductive rights. She is the author of the Mind the Gap newsletter.Stay in Touch📬 Subscribe to our newsletter at crosstabspodcast.com for new episodes, insights, and behind-the-scenes content.📹 Watch video episodes on YouTube @CrosstabsPodcast💬 Follow us on BlueSky: @crosstabspod.bsky.social and @farrahbostic.bsky.social📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

Dr. Michael D. Cohen, CEO of Cohen Research Group, dives into the transformation of political campaigns. He discusses how campaigns have evolved into high-speed, data-driven efforts shaped by technology and training. The conversation touches on the delicate balance of authenticity in branding, the crucial role of crisis communication, and the impact of AI on campaign strategies. Cohen also emphasizes the need for a strategic integrator in campaigns, while cautioning against overreliance on AI, making it a fascinating look at modern political tactics.

Farrah Bostic talks with G. Elliott Morris, the founder of Strength in Numbers (and author of a book by the same name) to discuss the evolution of data journalism and the critical role of public opinion polling in a healthy democracy. Morris, formerly of The Economist and FiveThirtyEight, shares his vision for a new era of "pollster-driven poll journalism" and how he aims to fill a crucial gap in the media landscape.We also discussed Strength in Numbers' July Poll, which looked at everything from Trump's approval numbers, to Democrats' weakness on the generic ballot, to the unpopularity of specific provisions of the reconciliation bill, to how people feel about third parties (and Musk's third party specifically). A core feature of these polls is that Morris takes suggestions from his community for questions to put on the polls - which means that the public gets a say in what we put on public opinion surveys for once.You can check out the latest July poll from Strength in Numbers (and subscribe) here: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-dems-lead-house-genericYou can also find his book, Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them here: https://wwnorton.com/books/strength-in-numbersOur GuestElliott Morris is a data-driven journalist and author living in Washington, DC. He is the author of STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them, a book about public opinion polling and democracy which was published in 2022 by W. W. Norton. Elliott was most recently the Editorial Director of Data Analytics at ABC News, where he developed polling aggregation and election-forecasting models and managed the research and data visualization teams for ABC’s data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight/538. He was a regular guest on the network’s broadcast and streaming news programs providing political analysis on notable events and upcoming elections.He is the founder of Strength in Numbers, a data-driven news website that provides regular analysis of national politics and elections in the United States.Your HostFarrah Bostic is the founder of The Difference Engine, a strategic research and innovation consultancy. Drawing on her extensive background in research and strategy, she examines how power dynamics and data patterns shape both democratic institutions and market environments, bringing a sharp analytical perspective to the intersection of politics, data, and business. Her incisive questioning style and ability to connect political movements with business implications makes Cross Tabs essential listening for political analysts, business leaders, and engaged citizens seeking to understand the forces shaping our political and economic landscapes. Learn more about Farrah’s experience helping B2B and B2C companies across various industries turn audience insights into effective strategies at thedifferenceengine.co, and be sure to connect with her on LinkedIn if you’d like to discuss how The Difference Engine can help your business grow with authentic customer insights.Stay in Touch📬 Subscribe to our newsletter at crosstabspodcast.com for new episodes, insights, and behind-the-scenes content.📹 Watch video episodes on YouTube @CrosstabsPodcast💬 Follow us on BlueSky: @crosstabspod.bsky.social and @farrahbostic.bsky.social📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

On July 1, I sat down to talk to Scott Keeter and Hannah Hartig from Pew Research about their 2024 Validated Voter Survey.We talked about the challenges of analyzing elections using panel data, and about the shifts in makeup of the electorate between 2020 and 2024, and what that means for how campaigns think about balancing turnout and persuasion strategies. More than anything, they tell us, mobilization is a result of campaigning. You gotta play to win.Links:How Changes in Turnout and Vote Choice Powered Trump’s Victory in 2024Behind Trump’s 2024 Victory, a More Racially and Ethnically Diverse Voter CoalitionCommercial Voter Files and the Study of U.S. PoliticsMy interview with L2 about their approach to assembling the voter file: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cross-tabs/id1725891109?i=1000651891510My interview with Michael McDonald discussing turnout models and his Election Project: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cross-tabs/id1725891109?i=1000666055702The Red Shift Maps from NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/06/us/politics/presidential-election-2024-red-shift.htmlHank Green's response video to the red shift maps: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kC9u7NZbGlQ)David Shor on Ezra Klein talking about changing demographics in the MAGA coalition: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/democrats-need-to-face-why-trump-won/id1548604447?i=1000699618199Our Guests:Hannah Hartig is a senior researcher at Pew Research Center, where she primarily studies U.S. political attitudes and voting behavior. She has authored analyses on topics including domestic opinions of the U.S., voter turnout in 2020 and views of abortion. Prior to joining the Center, she was director of research at the Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies at the University of Pennsylvania. She regularly discusses the Center’s political research with the news media and has served as an election night exit poll analyst for NBC News since 2014. Hartig received her bachelor’s in foreign affairs from the University of Virginia and master’s degree in quantitative politics from the University of Pennsylvania.Scott Keeter is a senior survey advisor at Pew Research Center. In this role, he provides methodological guidance to all of Pew Research Center’s research areas. An expert on American public opinion and political behavior, he is co-author of four books, including What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters (Yale University Press), A New Engagement? Political Participation, Civic Life, and the Changing American Citizen (Oxford University Press), The Diminishing Divide: Religion’s Changing Role in American Politics (Brookings Institution Press), ** and Uninformed Choice: The Failure of the New Presidential Nominating System (Praeger). He has also published numerous articles on survey methodology. Prior to joining Pew Research Center, he taught at George Mason University, Rutgers University and Virginia Commonwealth University, where he also directed a survey research center. Keeter is a graduate of Davidson College and received his doctorate in political science from the University of North Carolina. He is a past president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR). In 2016, Keeter won AAPOR’s highest honor, the AAPOR Award for Lifetime Achievement, for “outstanding contributions to the field of public opinion research.”You can follow their work, and even donate to support Pew’s Research, at pewresearch.org----📬 Subscribe to our newsletter at crosstabspodcast.com for new episodes, insights, and behind-the-scenes content.📹 Watch video episodes on YouTube @CrosstabsPodcast💬 Follow us on BlueSky: @crosstabspod.bsky.social and @farrahbostic.bsky.social📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

In this episode, Farrah Bostic is joined by messaging strategist, author, and Words to Win By host Anat Shenker-Osorio for a wide-ranging and incisive conversation about political communication, campaign strategy, and why so much of what the Democratic Party does feels like a missed opportunity.Together, they explore:How Anat’s early fascination with language and justice led her to a career in cognitive linguistics and progressive messaging.Why most political message testing (RCTs, MaxDiff, etc.) fails to reflect how real people encounter campaigns — and what to do instead.The danger of focusing on persuasion over mobilization, and why “say what you’re for” is the most important rule in campaign comms.How Democrats lost their working-class identity, and why organizing — not polling — is the only way to win it back.The power of persuasion windows and how the left can seize — or squander — them.This episode is a must-listen for anyone working in politics, messaging, organizing, or simply trying to make change in a noisy, distracted, and deeply unequal world.🔗 Resources & Mentions:ASO Communications – Open-source messaging guides and researchWords to Win By podcastDon't Buy It: The Trouble with Talking Nonsense About the Economy Follow Anat on BlueSky and Substack📬 Subscribe to our newsletter at crosstabspodcast.com for new episodes, insights, and behind-the-scenes content.📹 Watch video episodes on YouTube @CrosstabsPodcast💬 Follow us on BlueSky: @crosstabspod.bsky.social📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN's Editor of Polling and Election Analytics, brings over a decade of expertise in political reporting to the discussion. She reveals how polling acts as large-scale journalism, emphasizing the complexities behind question design and how partisan perspectives can distort public opinion. Exploring issues like AI and consumer behavior, she highlights how polls often fail to capture the nuances of democracy and voter discontent. Join Ariel as she navigates the evolving landscape of public sentiment and the true meaning behind survey results.

We've been off for about a month. But we've been busy.Check out our new trailer, and don't forget to like and subscribe to get new episodes each Wednesday.

Faris Yakob, co-founder of Genius Steals and a noted brand strategist, delves into the complexities of modern economics. He reveals how misleading averages mask the true consumer experience, emphasizing that just 10% of households drive half of America’s spending. The discussion highlights rising wealth disparities, the impact of international tariffs, and the emotional motivations behind consumer behavior. Yakob also critiques the stock market's influence on perceptions of economic health, shedding light on why many Americans feel financially strained despite positive macro indicators.

Educational attainment has become the new fault line in American politics, creating unexpected coalitions that cross racial boundaries. Research reveals a surprising shift of working-class voters across all demographics toward populist candidates who promise to fight for their interests rather than cater to college-educated elites.Political researcher Patrick Ruffini, co-founder of Echelon Insights and author of Party of the People, discusses these findings in this conversation with Farrah. Ruffini explains how the Democratic coalition has fractured along educational rather than economic lines, with cultural values becoming increasingly decisive in voting behavior. This analysis shows the disconnect between political elites and mainstream voters, highlighting an underlying optimism among immigrant and working-class communities that starkly contrasts with the pessimism often expressed by college-educated whites.Want to be a part of the future of Cross Tabs Podcast? Here are a few simple ways to get involved:   - Subscribe, rate, and review Cross Tabs Podcast on your favorite podcast app   - Subscribe to Cross Tabs Podcast Substack and suggest Cross Tabs to your audience if you have your own Substack - we’re happy to do the same!   - Contact Farrah with guest or topic suggestions you’d like to hear about on the show   Resources ‘Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP’Echelon Insights   The Intersection  Growth and Opportunity Project Report  David Shor's Diploma Divide Hypothesis  Political Inequality in Affluent Democracies: The Social Welfare Deficit   What if the US Were a Multi-Party Democracy?   Our Guest Patrick Ruffini is a founding partner at Echelon Insights, one of the most widely recognized public opinion and strategic research firms in the United States. Patrick is the author of ‘Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP,’ called “the book that predicted the 2024 election” by The New York Times and ranked as a Best Book in Politics by the Wall Street Journal.  An expert in political realignment and demographic trends, Patrick is a prolific speaker, writer, and political commentator. He has offered on-air analysis, including on election nights, for CNBC, Fox News, the BBC, and NPR and written for The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Time, The Atlantic, and Politico, among others. Patrick has led hundreds of strategic communications, survey, data analytics, and focus group projects for Fortune 500 companies, leading foundations and advocacy groups, and political campaigns nationally and internationally. Since Patrick co-founded Echelon Insights in 2014, the firm has been known for its innovative approach and accurate track record. It was ranked one of the three most accurate private polling firms in the country by 538 and is one of the most-awarded polling and data firms in the country by the American Association of Political Consultants and Campaigns & Elections. Before starting Echelon Insights, Patrick led one of the country’s premier digital strategy and communications firms, Engage, and served in senior roles at the Republican National Committee and for President George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign. Patrick is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and lives with his family in the Washington, D.C. suburbs. Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder of The Difference Engine, a strategic research and innovation consultancy. Drawing on her extensive background in research and strategy, she examines how power dynamics and data patterns shape both democratic institutions and market environments, bringing a sharp analytical perspective to the intersection of politics, data, and business. Her incisive questioning style and ability to connect political movements with business implications makes Cross Tabs essential listening for political analysts, business leaders, and engaged citizens seeking to understand the forces shaping our political and economic landscapes. Learn more about Farrah’s experience helping B2B and B2C companies across various industries turn audience insights into effective strategies at thedifferenceengine.co, and be sure to connect with her on LinkedIn if you’d like to discuss how The Difference Engine can help your business grow with authentic customer insights.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify