Cross Tabs

On July 1, I sat down to talk to Scott Keeter and Hannah Hartig from Pew Research about their 2024 Validated Voter Survey.We talked about the challenges of analyzing elections using panel data, and about the shifts in makeup of the electorate between 2020 and 2024, and what that means for how campaigns think about balancing turnout and persuasion strategies. More than anything, they tell us, mobilization is a result of campaigning. You gotta play to win.Links:How Changes in Turnout and Vote Choice Powered Trump’s Victory in 2024Behind Trump’s 2024 Victory, a More Racially and Ethnically Diverse Voter CoalitionCommercial Voter Files and the Study of U.S. PoliticsMy interview with L2 about their approach to assembling the voter file: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cross-tabs/id1725891109?i=1000651891510My interview with Michael McDonald discussing turnout models and his Election Project: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cross-tabs/id1725891109?i=1000666055702The Red Shift Maps from NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/06/us/politics/presidential-election-2024-red-shift.htmlHank Green's response video to the red shift maps: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kC9u7NZbGlQ)David Shor on Ezra Klein talking about changing demographics in the MAGA coalition: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/democrats-need-to-face-why-trump-won/id1548604447?i=1000699618199Our Guests:Hannah Hartig is a senior researcher at Pew Research Center, where she primarily studies U.S. political attitudes and voting behavior. She has authored analyses on topics including domestic opinions of the U.S., voter turnout in 2020 and views of abortion. Prior to joining the Center, she was director of research at the Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies at the University of Pennsylvania. She regularly discusses the Center’s political research with the news media and has served as an election night exit poll analyst for NBC News since 2014. Hartig received her bachelor’s in foreign affairs from the University of Virginia and master’s degree in quantitative politics from the University of Pennsylvania.Scott Keeter is a senior survey advisor at Pew Research Center. In this role, he provides methodological guidance to all of Pew Research Center’s research areas. An expert on American public opinion and political behavior, he is co-author of four books, including What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters (Yale University Press), A New Engagement? Political Participation, Civic Life, and the Changing American Citizen (Oxford University Press), The Diminishing Divide: Religion’s Changing Role in American Politics (Brookings Institution Press), ** and Uninformed Choice: The Failure of the New Presidential Nominating System (Praeger). He has also published numerous articles on survey methodology. Prior to joining Pew Research Center, he taught at George Mason University, Rutgers University and Virginia Commonwealth University, where he also directed a survey research center. Keeter is a graduate of Davidson College and received his doctorate in political science from the University of North Carolina. He is a past president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR). In 2016, Keeter won AAPOR’s highest honor, the AAPOR Award for Lifetime Achievement, for “outstanding contributions to the field of public opinion research.”You can follow their work, and even donate to support Pew’s Research, at pewresearch.org----📬 Subscribe to our newsletter at crosstabspodcast.com for new episodes, insights, and behind-the-scenes content.📹 Watch video episodes on YouTube @CrosstabsPodcast💬 Follow us on BlueSky: @crosstabspod.bsky.social and @farrahbostic.bsky.social📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

In this episode, Farrah Bostic is joined by messaging strategist, author, and Words to Win By host Anat Shenker-Osorio for a wide-ranging and incisive conversation about political communication, campaign strategy, and why so much of what the Democratic Party does feels like a missed opportunity.Together, they explore:How Anat’s early fascination with language and justice led her to a career in cognitive linguistics and progressive messaging.Why most political message testing (RCTs, MaxDiff, etc.) fails to reflect how real people encounter campaigns — and what to do instead.The danger of focusing on persuasion over mobilization, and why “say what you’re for” is the most important rule in campaign comms.How Democrats lost their working-class identity, and why organizing — not polling — is the only way to win it back.The power of persuasion windows and how the left can seize — or squander — them.This episode is a must-listen for anyone working in politics, messaging, organizing, or simply trying to make change in a noisy, distracted, and deeply unequal world.🔗 Resources & Mentions:ASO Communications – Open-source messaging guides and researchWords to Win By podcastDon't Buy It: The Trouble with Talking Nonsense About the Economy Follow Anat on BlueSky and Substack📬 Subscribe to our newsletter at crosstabspodcast.com for new episodes, insights, and behind-the-scenes content.📹 Watch video episodes on YouTube @CrosstabsPodcast💬 Follow us on BlueSky: @crosstabspod.bsky.social📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

After a brief break, Cross Tabs returns with a must-hear conversation between host Farrah Bostic and journalist-pollster Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN’s Editor of Polling and Election Analytics. Ariel shares insights from over a decade of political polling and reporting, shedding light on how polls get designed, interpreted, and communicated—and why public opinion is more nuanced, contradictory, and dynamic than we often assume.📌 Topic HighlightsHow polling serves as a form of large-scale journalismQuestion design, framing effects, and the limits of hypothetical pollingExpressive responding and partisanship’s effect on perceptionThe challenge of polling on emerging topics like AI and cryptoWhy polls often fail to capture what people mean when they talk about democracy, education, or trust in governmentWhat polling reveals—and obscures—about voter discontent with both parties👤 About Our GuestAriel Edwards-Levy is the Editor of Polling and Election Analytics at CNN. Previously, she was a senior reporter and polling editor at HuffPost. She is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research and was awarded the 2019 Carey McWilliams Award by the American Political Science Association for her journalistic contributions to understanding politics. You can follow her work (and jokes!) on Bluesky.🔗 Mentioned ResourcesCNN Polling Hub: https://www.cnn.com/politics/polling-centerCNN/SSRS polling report: "A record share of Americans want the government to get more done": https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/08/politics/poll-government-done-party-trustThe Breakthrough Project (CNN, Georgetown, Michigan, SSRS, Verasight): https://breakthrough.cnn.comPew Research on AI: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/08/28/how-the-us-public-and-experts-view-artificial-intelligenceRoper Center for Public Opinion Archives: https://ropercenter.cornell.eduBrian Schaffner’s research on expressive responding: https://sites.tufts.edu/brianschaffner/publications/📣 Stay ConnectedLike what you heard?✔️ Subscribe to Cross Tabs wherever you get your podcasts✔️ Rate and review the show—it helps others find us✔️ Follow the show on BlueSky✔️ Watch full episodes on YouTube✔️ Sign up for the free weekly newsletter: https://crosstabspodcast.com✔️ Follow Farrah Bostic on BlueSky✔️ Learn more at: https://thedifferenceengine.co

We've been off for about a month. But we've been busy.Check out our new trailer, and don't forget to like and subscribe to get new episodes each Wednesday.

Faris Yakob, co-founder of Genius Steals and a noted brand strategist, delves into the complexities of modern economics. He reveals how misleading averages mask the true consumer experience, emphasizing that just 10% of households drive half of America’s spending. The discussion highlights rising wealth disparities, the impact of international tariffs, and the emotional motivations behind consumer behavior. Yakob also critiques the stock market's influence on perceptions of economic health, shedding light on why many Americans feel financially strained despite positive macro indicators.

Educational attainment has become the new fault line in American politics, creating unexpected coalitions that cross racial boundaries. Research reveals a surprising shift of working-class voters across all demographics toward populist candidates who promise to fight for their interests rather than cater to college-educated elites.Political researcher Patrick Ruffini, co-founder of Echelon Insights and author of Party of the People, discusses these findings in this conversation with Farrah. Ruffini explains how the Democratic coalition has fractured along educational rather than economic lines, with cultural values becoming increasingly decisive in voting behavior. This analysis shows the disconnect between political elites and mainstream voters, highlighting an underlying optimism among immigrant and working-class communities that starkly contrasts with the pessimism often expressed by college-educated whites.Want to be a part of the future of Cross Tabs Podcast? Here are a few simple ways to get involved:   - Subscribe, rate, and review Cross Tabs Podcast on your favorite podcast app   - Subscribe to Cross Tabs Podcast Substack and suggest Cross Tabs to your audience if you have your own Substack - we’re happy to do the same!   - Contact Farrah with guest or topic suggestions you’d like to hear about on the show   Resources ‘Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP’Echelon Insights   The Intersection  Growth and Opportunity Project Report  David Shor's Diploma Divide Hypothesis  Political Inequality in Affluent Democracies: The Social Welfare Deficit   What if the US Were a Multi-Party Democracy?   Our Guest Patrick Ruffini is a founding partner at Echelon Insights, one of the most widely recognized public opinion and strategic research firms in the United States. Patrick is the author of ‘Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP,’ called “the book that predicted the 2024 election” by The New York Times and ranked as a Best Book in Politics by the Wall Street Journal.  An expert in political realignment and demographic trends, Patrick is a prolific speaker, writer, and political commentator. He has offered on-air analysis, including on election nights, for CNBC, Fox News, the BBC, and NPR and written for The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Time, The Atlantic, and Politico, among others. Patrick has led hundreds of strategic communications, survey, data analytics, and focus group projects for Fortune 500 companies, leading foundations and advocacy groups, and political campaigns nationally and internationally. Since Patrick co-founded Echelon Insights in 2014, the firm has been known for its innovative approach and accurate track record. It was ranked one of the three most accurate private polling firms in the country by 538 and is one of the most-awarded polling and data firms in the country by the American Association of Political Consultants and Campaigns & Elections. Before starting Echelon Insights, Patrick led one of the country’s premier digital strategy and communications firms, Engage, and served in senior roles at the Republican National Committee and for President George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign. Patrick is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and lives with his family in the Washington, D.C. suburbs. Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder of The Difference Engine, a strategic research and innovation consultancy. Drawing on her extensive background in research and strategy, she examines how power dynamics and data patterns shape both democratic institutions and market environments, bringing a sharp analytical perspective to the intersection of politics, data, and business. Her incisive questioning style and ability to connect political movements with business implications makes Cross Tabs essential listening for political analysts, business leaders, and engaged citizens seeking to understand the forces shaping our political and economic landscapes. Learn more about Farrah’s experience helping B2B and B2C companies across various industries turn audience insights into effective strategies at thedifferenceengine.co, and be sure to connect with her on LinkedIn if you’d like to discuss how The Difference Engine can help your business grow with authentic customer insights.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Government efficiency is often misunderstood, with dangerous consequences when technology leaders wield power without understanding civic infrastructure. Today’s conversation explores what resilience means in technology and governance, examining how Silicon Valley's "move fast and break things" approach threatens critical systems that serve vulnerable populations. In this episode of Cross Tabs, host Farrah Bostic and Dan Hon discuss the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Elon Musk and how tech executives' worldview impacts public services. They examine how technology is inherently political, contrasting the "efficiency" valued by tech companies with government effectiveness, while considering how communities might respond to administrative breakdown in vital social programs. Want to be a part of the future of Cross Tabs Podcast? Here are a few simple ways to get involved:   - Subscribe, rate, and review Cross Tabs Podcast on your favorite podcast app   - Subscribe to Cross Tabs Podcast Substack and suggest Cross Tabs to your audience if you have your own Substack - we’re happy to do the same!   - Contact Farrah with guest or topic suggestions you’d like to hear about on the show   Resources “Things That Caught My Attention” by Dan Hon ‘Snow Crash’ by Neal Stephenson  ‘Lexicon’ https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/16158596-lexicon by Max Barry ‘Jennifer Government’  by Max Barry "The Nation's Data at Risk" by the American Statistical Association  “Imaginary Friends” by Jeffrey Goldberg, The New Yorker Blue Ant Series by William Gibson series  Musk Watch Judd Legum Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)  DOGE Live Tracker  Our Guest Dan Hon is a technologist and civic technology expert with extensive experience at the intersection of government and digital services, previously serving as the Editorial Director of Code for America. Hon has worked in both the public and private sectors, including at advertising agency Wieden+Kennedy, where he developed innovative interactive experiences. He's known for his insightful commentary on digital government, government efficiency, and the ethical implications of technology in civic spaces. He currently writes the “Things That Caught My Attention” newsletter and is a respected voice on how technology impacts government services and citizen experiences. His strategic consultancy is Very Little Gravitas. Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder of The Difference Engine, a strategic research and innovation consultancy. Drawing on her extensive background in research and strategy, she examines how power dynamics and data patterns shape both democratic institutions and market environments, bringing a sharp analytical perspective to the intersection of politics, data, and business. Her incisive questioning style and ability to connect political movements with business implications makes Cross Tabs essential listening for political analysts, business leaders, and engaged citizens seeking to understand the forces shaping our political and economic landscapes. Learn more about Farrah’s experience helping B2B and B2C companies across various industries turn audience insights into effective strategies at thedifferenceengine.co, and be sure to connect with her on LinkedIn if you’d like to discuss how The Difference Engine can help your business grow with authentic customer insights.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Polling reveals most Americans support abortion access in almost every circumstance, even when they identify as "pro-life." Looking beneath surface-level survey questions shows that when people are asked about specific situations rather than abstract labels, 80% believe abortion should be legal, and even self-described pro-life voters support legal abortion in most medical circumstances or cases of criminal acts. In this enlightening conversation with Lauren Goldstein from Change Research, Farrah takes aim at how political polling often misses the deeper values that drive voter opinion. Their discussion reveals how understanding "symbolic politics" — the emotional frameworks and values that shape political identity — can transform political communication and uncover surprising consensus on seemingly divisive issues. Want to be a part of the future of Cross Tabs Podcast? Here are a few simple ways to get involved:   Subscribe, rate, and review Cross Tabs Podcast on your favorite podcast app   Subscribe to Cross Tabs Podcast Substack and suggest Cross Tabs to your audience if you have your own Substack - we’re happy to do the same!   Contact Farrah with guest or topic suggestions you’d like to hear about on the show  Resources Lauren's essay on her substack, Mind the Gap: ‘Actually, Abortion Isn’t Polarizing’  Change Research  ‘Where Do Americans Stand on Abortion?’   The American Voter  Symbolic politics theory research   Our Guest Lauren Goldstein is the lead advocacy pollster for Change Research and holds a PhD from UCLA with ten years of experience as a public opinion researcher and social scientist. She has done extensive research and polling on issues related to racial justice (and injustice), criminal legal reform and police divestment, immigration, and reproductive rights. Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder of The Difference Engine, a strategic research and innovation consultancy. Drawing on her extensive background in research and strategy, she examines how power dynamics and data patterns shape both democratic institutions and market environments, bringing a sharp analytical perspective to the intersection of politics, data, and business. Her incisive questioning style and ability to connect political movements with business implications makes Cross Tabs essential listening for political analysts, business leaders, and engaged citizens seeking to understand the forces shaping our political and economic landscapes. Learn more about Farrah’s experience helping B2B and B2C companies across various industries turn audience insights into effective strategies at thedifferenceengine.co, and be sure to connect with her on LinkedIn if you’d like to discuss how The Difference Engine can help your business grow with authentic customer insights.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify 

The invisible rulers of the internet are no longer just PR consultants and advertisers, but algorithms and influencers who shape our bespoke realities through immersive persuasion. Social media platforms have transformed from places to connect with friends to ecosystems where propaganda thrives, creating fragmented information environments that leave users swimming in increasingly polarized content. In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah Bostic speaks with Renee DiResta, a leading researcher on misinformation who traces her journey from concerned parent to disinformation expert. DiResta unpacks how platforms' business models prioritize engagement over truth, explains why political messaging strategies differ dramatically between left and right, and offers practical recommendations for resetting online norms beyond simple calls for media literacy. Want to be a part of the future of Cross Tabs Podcast? Here are a few simple ways to get involved:   Subscribe, rate, and review Cross Tabs Podcast on your favorite podcast app   Subscribe to Cross Tabs Podcast Substack and suggest Cross Tabs to your audience if you have your own Substack - we’re happy to do the same!   Contact Farrah with guest or topic suggestions you’d like to hear about on the show   Resources 'Propaganda'  'The Invisible Rulers'  'Shrimp, slop, spam: what counts as creativity?'  'Instagram 'Error' Turned Reels Into Neverending Scroll of Murder, Gore, and Violence'  'Influence and Improvisation: Participatory Disinformation during the 2020 US Election' The Lawfare Podcast "Lawfare Daily: A World Without Cesars"   Our Guest Renée DiResta is an Associate Research Professor at Georgetown's McCourt School who studies how information spreads and distorts online. Her research examines the ecosystem of influence operations, from viral misinformation to coordinated propaganda campaigns. DiResta investigates the interplay between algorithms, influencers, and human behavior that shapes our online information environment. She has advised Congress, the State Department, and global leaders on countering digital manipulation and is the author of ‘The Invisible Rulers,’ which explores propaganda in the digital age. Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder of The Difference Engine, a strategic research and innovation consultancy. Drawing on her extensive background in research and strategy, she examines how power dynamics and data patterns shape both democratic institutions and market environments, bringing a sharp analytical perspective to the intersection of politics, data, and business. Her incisive questioning style and ability to connect political movements with business implications makes Cross Tabs essential listening for political analysts, business leaders, and engaged citizens seeking to understand the forces shaping our political and economic landscapes. Learn more about Farrah’s experience helping B2B and B2C companies across various industries turn audience insights into effective strategies at thedifferenceengine.co, and be sure to connect with her on LinkedIn if you’d like to discuss how The Difference Engine can help.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify 

Religious nationalism manifests differently across the globe, with some surprising patterns emerging from cross-national research. The concept extends beyond legal frameworks into cultural values, with the US standing out among high-income countries for believing the Bible should influence laws, even though only 6% of Americans qualify as religious nationalists. In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah speaks with Pew Research Center experts Jonathan Evans and Laura Silver about their groundbreaking study on religious nationalism across 36 countries. They discuss their methodological approach to studying such a complex topic across different religions and cultures, the nuances of what it means to be a "religious state" while maintaining democracy, and the stark political polarization in America compared to other nations. Want to be a part of the future of Cross Tabs Podcast? Here are a few simple ways to get involved:   - Subscribe, rate, and review Cross Tabs Podcast on your favorite podcast app   - Subscribe to Cross Tabs Podcast Substack and suggest Cross Tabs to your audience if you have your own Substack - we’re happy to do the same!   - Contact Farrah with guest or topic suggestions you’d like to hear about on the show  Resources Religious Nationalism Report  India Religious Study  Christian Nationalism in the US  Western Europe Religious Study  American Views on China  Our Guests Jonathan Evans is a Senior Researcher on the Religion team at Pew Research Center, approaching nine years with the organization. His work focuses primarily on international religious research, including leading a major project involving 30,000 interviews in India examining the intersection of religion with public life. Evans specializes in studying how religious beliefs, practices, and identities intersect with other aspects of people's lives across different cultural contexts. Laura Silver is an Associate Director on the Global Attitudes team at Pew Research Center with eight years of experience conducting cross-national surveys. She specializes in studying global phenomena in comparative contexts and has extensive expertise in American views of China. Silver oversees large cross-national surveys spanning dozens of countries, helping to provide context for how different global phenomena impact countries in varying ways. Your Host Farrah Bostic is the founder of The Difference Engine, a strategic research and innovation consultancy. Drawing on her extensive background in research and strategy, she examines how power dynamics and data patterns shape both democratic institutions and market environments, bringing a sharp analytical perspective to the intersection of politics, data, and business. Her incisive questioning style and ability to connect political movements with business implications makes Cross Tabs essential listening for political analysts, business leaders, and engaged citizens seeking to understand the forces shaping our political and economic landscapes. Learn more about Farrah’s experience helping B2B and B2C companies across various industries turn audience insights into effective strategies at thedifferenceengine.co, and be sure to connect with her on LinkedIn if you’d like to discuss how The Difference Engine can help.  Subscribe to Cross Tabs Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: Apple Podcasts Spotify