Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer four emails from Dave, or Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate if you prefer.  We address foolish consistencies and conflicts of interest, the reason we have sample portfolios, interest rate hysteria and Vanguard's VPGDX fund.  And then we go to our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity RadioAdditional Links:Contents of VPGDX:  VPGDX - Vanguard Managed Allocation Fund | VanguardAnalysis if VPGDX vs. Golden Butterfly vs. Golden Ratio:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Support the show

In this episode we analyze the AGFiQ  US Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund ETF, ticker symbol BTAL, using David Stein's Ten Questions to Master Investing, which are:1.  What is it?2.  Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?3.  What is the upside?4.  What is the downside?5.  Who is on the other side of the trade?6.  What is the investment vehicle?7.  What does it take to be successful?8.  Who is getting a cut?9.  How does it impact your portfolio?10.  Should you invest?This fund analysis was suggested/requested by listener Javen S.Additional Links:BTAL Fact Sheet:  AGFiQ U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund - - Fund ProfileBTAL Prospectus:  AGFiQ Annual ProspectusBTAL Correlation Matrix:  Asset Correlations BTAL (portfoliovisualizer.com)Backtest Golden Butterfly Portfolio Example:  Backtest GB Portfolios (portfoliovisualizer.com)Backtest Golden Ratio Portfolio Example:  Backtest GR Portfolios (portfoliovisualizer.com)Backtest Leveraged Portfolios Examples:  tinyurl.com/8t62zjhkSupport the show

In this episode we answer questions from Greg, David, Chris, Rikki and John-Michael.  We discuss the "Weird Portfolio", do a Vanguard Life-Strategy Funds comparison, using a risk-parity style portfolio for intermediate needs, alternative allocations and related tax issues, treasury bonds, emerging markets funds and tax-advantaged transactions, and the Experimental Risk Parity Lever portfolio at ChooseFI and M1.Links:Weird Portfolio Article:  The Weird Portfolio. How To Avoid Bubbles, Limit Drawdowns… | by Value Stock GeekWeird Portfolio vs. Golden Butterfly vs. Golden Ratio comparison:  Backtest Weird Portfolio Vanguard Moderate Life Strategy vs. Golden Butterfly vs. Golden Ratio comparison:  Backtest Vanguard Moderate Life Strategy Episode 27 re Utility Funds:  Podcast 27 Episode 9 re Preferred Shares Fund PFF:  Podcast 9 Episode 31 re RPAR:  Podcast 31 Optimized Portfolios Article re Leveraged ETFs:  What Is a Leveraged ETF . . .?Experimental Risk Parity Lever M1 PSupport the show

In this episode we answer emails from Bob, Zahir, Melanie, Pat and Rob.  We address sound effects, strange voices, analyzing leveraged investments, test-driving risk-parity portfolios, selling bad investments in individual stocks, small-cap value stock investments over time and balancing safe/perpetual withdrawal rates vs. projected drawdowns.Then we go to our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity RadioAdditional Links:Episode 111 Notes Page:  Podcast Episode 111 | Risk Parity RadioPortfolio Charts Golden Butterfly Analysis:  Golden Butterfly – Portfolio ChartsRisk Parity Ultimate Restructuring Episode And Analysis Notes:  Podcast Episode 109 | Risk Parity RadioSupport the show

In this episode we answer emails from Keith, Jeffrey, Evan, Brendan, Kelly and Paul.  We address Kelly Criterion and other risk/reward considerations (Sharpe and Sortino ratios), crystal balls, the "Possibility Effect" cognitive bias and a base-rate analysis of the Golden Butterfly portfolio, issues with IVOL, trading ETFs at Vanguard, the perpetual withdrawal rate, expense ratios and bucket strategies, basic retirement considerations, issues with QYLD  and an examination of Big Ern's leveraged retirement portfolios.It's another barn burner!   Real Wrath of God type stuff!Links:Kelly Criterion article:  Leverage and The Line Between Aggressive and Crazy (rhsfinancial.com)Golden Butterfly analysis with Heat Map:  Golden Butterfly – Portfolio ChartsEpisode 89 re QYLD:  Podcast Episode 89 | Risk Parity RadioBig Ern Article Re Leveraged Portfolios:  Lower risk through leverage – Early Retirement NowBig Ern Article Re Gold In Portfolios:  Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement NowEpisode 40 Re Gold:  Podcast Episode 40 | Risk Parity RadioPortfolio Analysis Comparison Of Big Ern Leveraged Portfolio With And Without Gold:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)The SWAN ETF:  SWAN - BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF - Amplify ETFsSupport the show

In this all-email extravaganza we address emails from Spencer, Nick, Bob, Randy, Falco, Kevin, and Daniel.  We address the Hedgefundie Portfolio (again!), an article about a 50/50 stock/10-year treasury reference portfolio, BigErn's research about gold (again!), CAPEd and other common crystal balls and the erroneously implied mean-reversion assumption, gold etfs, using cash as a short-term risk-reducer, implementing the Golden Ratio in the Netherlands, a missing link from Episode 7 and implementing the Risk Parity Ultimate at M1 finance.  Whew!And we are still a month behind on the emails.Referenced links:Episode 82 re the Hedgefundie portfolio:  Podcast Episode 82| Risk Parity RadioLengthy Hedgefundie Portfolio Article:  HEDGEFUNDIE's Excellent Adventure (UPRO/TMF) - A Summary (optimizedportfolio.com)Article re 50/50 S&P/10-year treasury reference portfolio:  The Risk Parity Gorilla In The Room | AlphaWeek (alpha-week.com)50/50 S&P/10-year treasury vs. Golden Ratio backtest:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)BigErn Gold Article:  Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34 – Early Retirement NowEpisode 40 re Gold:  Podcast Episode 40 | Risk Parity RadioDragon Portfolio Paper with 100-year Analysis:  https://artemiscm.docsend.com/view/taygkbnNext Level Life You Tube Video on Gold:  Why Are Gold Portfolios So Dependable? - YouTubeEpisode 70 re CAPE Ratio:  Podcast Episode 70 | Risk Parity RadioBen Felix Episode re CAPE Ratio:  RR #146 - Do Expected Stock Returns Wear a CAPE? - YouTubeBen Felix Episode re Expected Returns:  RR #151 - Professor Brad Cornell: A Skeptic’s Look at the Cross Section of Expected Returns - YouTubeSupport the show

Discover the intricacies of rebalancing four sample portfolios and the adjustments made for greater diversity in a key portfolio. Listen in as listener emails spark discussions on portfolio adjustments and strategies for managing retirement savings. The hosts also celebrate a significant milestone with over 100,000 downloads, while announcing a short hiatus and encouraging engagement with the audience. Tune in for insights into risk parity models and personalized investment strategies!

In this episode we start by addressing emails from Eric, Gareth, Jeff and Randy about transitioning with a high savings rate, data sources at portfoliovisualizer and portfoliocharts, Chinese A shares ETFs, and capital gains tax issues.  Then we do our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. After that we have some fun smashing some crystal balls discussed in a CNBC article and talk about more rebalancing.  Yeah, baby, yeah!Links:Portfolio Visualizer Data Sources:  Frequently Asked Questions (portfoliovisualizer.com)Portfolio Charts Data Sources:  Search Results for “data sources” – Portfolio ChartsKBA Correlation Analysis:  Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)CNBC Article re Crystal Ball Failures:  The mystifying bond market behavior could last all summer (cnbc.com)Optimized Rebalancing Article:  Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)Support the show

In this episode we discuss an investigation and penalties assessed against TIAA for malfeasance in managing client accounts and then we answer emails from Adam, Brian, Andy, and Bennie.  We discuss short-term draw-down strategies, volatility and correlation theory, margin accounts and leverage funds, and automated investing.RANT subject article:  TIAA to Pay $97M for Pressuring Investors Into Rollovers | ThinkAdvisorAnd here is the rest of the text of Brian's email:"Below is a simple numbers example I created at the time that allowed it to click for me, I share it in case there are others like me that have a hard time allowing the words of others dissuade them from the math that's going on in their head.It might be helpful because it holds return and volatility constant to isolate the impacts of correlation. Cheers.The return of Asset A has four observations: -10%, +30%, +15%, +5% If we drop this into a spreadsheet it has an average return of +10% and a ~17% standard deviation. Asset B and C are exactly the same as Asset A in all ways, with the only difference being the order of their returns.Asset B = +30%, -10%, +5%, +15%Asset C = +15%, + 5%, +30%, -10%If you didn't immediately notice, when you drop these into a spreadsheet you will see that Asset A & B have a -1 correlation, and Asset A & C have a 0 correlation."Now where it gets interesting is suppose over these four periods you had two portfolios, one that was 50/50 A&B and another that was 50/50 A&C. Calculate the average return and standard deviation for these two portfolios. You'll see that both have a +10% average return just like the original assets, however that standard deviation goes to zero for the negatively correlated assets and only drops ~5 points for the zero correlated assets."Support the show

In this episode, we answer emails from Jon, Toby, Dale and Andrew about intermediate portfolios, adjustments to gold in portfolios, value investing vs. broader diversification, market timing, financial coaching and how to incorporate I-Bonds.Then we go to our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity RadioAnd we drop a few crystal balls on the pavement of reality and see what happens.Link to Choose FI Sample Portfolios Page:  M1 Pies: Manage and Optimize Your Portfolio Like a Pro (choosefi.com)Support the show