Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer questions from Pedro, Graham and Nathan.  We discuss creating a Golden Ratio portfolio out of ITOT and other things, what to do about bond fund choices in a TSP and the ins and outs of the VCSAX Consumer Staples Fund.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterTSP F Fund Page:  F Fund | The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP)ITOT Analysis:  ITOT – Portfolio – iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt ETF | MorningstarOptimal Finance Daily Podcast:  Optimal Finance Daily - Personal Finance Podcast (oldpodcast.com)Diania Merriam Interview:  Video How 1 woman went from having debt to retiring in 5 years - ABC News (go.com)VCSAX Analysis:  VCSAX – Portfolio – Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Admiral | MorningstarPortfolio Visualizer Analysis of  Consumer Staples Fund vs. 80/20 vs. 50/50:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer questions from MyContactInfo, Anonymous and Arun.  We discuss a podcast and article about the concept of Ergodicity and how to apply it, a variation of the Golden Ratio portfolio from one of our listeners recently discussed in an interview, and the illusory benefits of dividend-paying stocks and related delusions.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:EconTalk Podcast on Ergodicity:  Luca Dellanna on Risk, Ruin, and Ergodicity | EconTalkTaylor Pearson Article on Ergodicity:  Ergodicity: A Simple Explanation of Ergodic vs. Non-Ergodic (taylorpearson.me)Picture Perfect Portfolios Article about a Golden Ratio-style portfolio and others:  100% Factor Focused Equities vs Diversification Reigns Supreme (pictureperfectportfolios.com)Three Ben Felix Videos About the Irrelevance of Dividends:The Irrelevance of Dividends - YouTubeThe Relevance of Dividend Irrelevance - YouTubeDividend Growth Investing - YouTubeIntel's 2023 Dividend Cut: Intel cuts dividend to lowest since 2007 to save cash | ReutersIntel slashes dividend by over 65%, to 12.5 cents (cnbc.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Drew, Barry and Rob.  We discuss an article about investing in gold from Larry Swedroe and how to read it and the articles cited therein correctly, transitioning from a 60/40 portfolio to a risk-parity style portfolio and taking distributions and how to evaluate a pension vs. a lump sum.  Groovy, Baby!Links:Swedroe Article:  Misguided Investor Expectations on the Risk and Returns of Gold | Wealth Management"The Golden Dilemma" Paper:  delivery.php (ssrn.com)"The Golden Rule of Investing"  Paper:  delivery.php (ssrn.com)Portfolio Visualizer Correlation Analysis of Swedroe suggestions and gold:  Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)YouTube Interview of Corey Hoffstein about rebalancing timing:  Keeping it Simple Ep. 21: Do I Feel Lucky? | SimplifyImmediate Annuities Calculator/Free Quotes:  Get Your Best Annuity Quote Instantly Online! Without any sales calls. Your phone# is not required. — ImmediateAnnuities.comSupport the show

In this episode we answer emails from Jennie, Chris and Visitor 5622.  We discuss Jennie's retirement situation, BTAL and long dollar funds, and VTI musings.   And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Value Stock Geek with Your Truly:  The Security Analysis Podcast: Frank Vasquez - Risk Parity Investing for the DIY Investor on Apple PodcastsPortfolio Visualizer Financial Goals Sequencer:  Financial Goals (portfoliovisualizer.com)BTAL Web Page:  AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund | AGF.comMorningstar Analysis of VTI:  VTI – Portfolio – Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | MorningstarSupport the show

In this episode we begin with a mini-rant about the THREE free steak dinner invitations we received recently.  Then we answer emails from Drew, Lauren and Joe.  We go over a number of useful links and information about managed futures from Drew following up on Episode 265, talk about Emerson and Jeopardy, and what to do when you reach Financial Independence early at age 39.Links:Charlie Munger Misjudgment Speech:  The Psychology of Human Misjudgment - Charlie Munger Full Speech - YouTubeTLDL Shorter Animated Version:  Charlie Munger - 24 Standard Causes of Human Misjudgment in 15 minutes - YouTubeAlpha Architect QVAL Fund Page:  QVAL - Alpha Architect ETFsAQR's AQMIX Fund Page:  AQR Managed Futures Strategy Fund - AQMIXSociete Generale CTA Indices Page:  Prime Services (Newedge) Indices (societegenerale.com)Art of Manliness Podcast About Emerson:  Podcast #904: How Emerson Can Help You Become a Stoic Nonconformist | The Art of ManlinessValue Stock Geek Security Analysis Website:  Security Analysis | Value Stock Geek | SubstackWeird Portfolio Page At Portfolio Charts:  Weird Portfolio – Portfolio ChartsSupport the show

In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (a/k/a/ "the Dude"), Pete and Dean.  We discuss box spreads, trying to market-time t-bills and interest rates, a whole host of logical fallacies and cognitive biases and a variable preferred shares fund (VRP) and what it does and doesn't do.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Alpha Architect On Box Spreads:  Box Spreads: An Alternative to Treasury Bills? (alphaarchitect.com)Alpha Architect Paper On Size And Value Tilts:  AA-JBISFactorInvesting22LongOnlyValueInvesting.pdf (alphaarchitect.com)You Are Not So Smart Fallacy Podcasts (check out ones in the 60s or word search "fallacy"):  Podcast – You Are Not So SmartSample Gerd Gigerenzer Lecture:  Risk literacy: Gerd Gigerenzer at TEDxZurich - YouTubeRisk Savvy book:  Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions by Gerd Gigerenzer | GoodreadsSummary of Prospecting Theory and Cognitive Biases:  The Prospecting Lens - Prospecting Mimetic FractalsDan Ariely Books:  Books - Dan ArielyFreakonomics Episode On Slippery Slopes:  Enough with the Slippery Slopes! - FreakonomicsSupport the show

In this episode we answer emails from George, Danny, and Jamie.  We discuss short-term asset allocations and considerations thereabouts, expense-tracking methodologies (led by Sister Stigmata), and manager-run managed futures funds versus replication-based funds.Links:QMHNX Page:  AQR Managed Futures Strategy HV Fund - QMHNXPodcast Debate about Managed Futures Funds:  246 Systematic Investor Series ft. Andrew Beer & Tim Pickering – June 3rd, 2023 | Top Traders UnpluggedSupport the show

In this episode we answer emails from Thirsty Horse, Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude") and Mark.  We discuss our charity, assorted Monte Carlo simulations on Portfolio Visualizer and data sources, rebalancing of leveraged portfolios and the choice of leverage (follow up on Episode 259), Flight of the Conchords, and the pitfalls of trying to use valuation metrics as crystal balls.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Become a Patron and Support our Charity:  Risk Parity Radio | creating A Podcast | PatreonMonte Carlo Analysis of basic Golden Ratio portfolio back to 1994:  https://tinyurl.com/mswkra9cMonte Carlo Analysis of Golden Ratio portfolio back to the 1970s:  https://tinyurl.com/hzd6xfttPortfolio Charts Retirement Spending Calculator: RETIREMENT SPENDING – Portfolio Charts Michael Kitces Optimized Rebalancing Articles:  Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)Aswath Damodaran on Long View Podcast:  Aswath Damodaran: A Valuation Expert’s Take on Inflation, Stock Buybacks, ESG, and More | MorningstarAswath Damodaran/Equity Risk Premium: Damodaran On-line Home Page (nyu.edu)Errant 2013 Paper re 4% Rule:  delivery.php (ssrn.com)Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2014:  Shiller PE: Bad Market Timing, Good Retirement Planning (kitces.com)Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2016:  Reducing Retirement Return Assumptions For High Valuation? (kitces.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from R.J., Mark and Jaako.  We discuss how amateur investors doing projections often double-count inflation accidently and apply inappropriate tax rates, using low-beta funds in portfolio construction, and ETFs designed to combat inflation in Finland and elsewhere.Note I misspoke and the USMV low-beta portfolio does better than the two created in Mark's backtests.Links:Value Stock Geek's Podcast Interview of Tyler from Portfolio Charts:  Tyler (@PortfolioCharts): The Amazing Power of Uncorrelated Assets (securityanalysis.org)Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo Simulator:  Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Rational Reminder Interview of Professor Campbell:  Prof. John Y. Campbell: Financial Decisions for Long-term Investors | Rational Reminder 250 - YouTubeAnalysis of Low Beta Portfolios:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Mark's Correlation Analysis:  Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)Fund Page for Jaako's Fund:   Lyxor EUR 2-10Y Inflation Expectations UCITS ETF - Acc | LYX0U6 | LU1390062245 (justetf.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Bruce, Raymond and Alexi (a/k/a "Dude").  We discuss what we learned from last year about the performance of various assets in a severely rising interest environment, holding a conservative portfolio in accumulation to sleep better and one of the Dude's gambling experiments involving UDOW and TQQQ.Links:Updated UNC Paper re Bonds, Flights to Safety and Stock Market Volatility:  SSRN-id1436124.pdfPortfolio Charts Time to Financial Independence Calculator:   FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE – Portfolio ChartsAlexi's UDOW/TQQQ Analysis:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Long Term Analysis of Total Market vs. 50/50 Large Cap Growth/Value:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Support the show