Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer emails from Jeff, Micah and Chris.  We discuss some data anomalies of Portfolio Visualizer pertaining to REITs, how to interpret and use Monte Carlo simulations, a more aggressive variation of the Golden Butterfly portfolio (similar to the Weird Portfolio) and the recent performance of the Golden Butterfly portfolio itself.Links:Portfolio Visualizer REIT Data:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Micah's Alaskan Golden Butterfly Portfolio:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)The Weird Portfolio:  Weird Portfolio – Portfolio ChartsPortfolio Charts Risk-Return Comparison Analyzer of Your Portfolio vs. 19 Others:  RISK AND RETURN – Portfolio ChartsSupport the show

In this episode we answer an email from Judy.  We discuss a 2013 Michael Kitces article about risk parity, which aspects we have incorporated and which we have not (and why), and then talk about an interview of William Bernstein about his new book and some related thoughts and ramifications about bonds, crystal balls, annuities and other things.  (Note:  I think I said it was the 4th edition, but its really just the 2d.)And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:2013 Michael Kitces Risk Parity Article:  Microsoft Word - Kitces Report November-December 2013 - RISK PARITY - FINALMorningstar Long View Interview of William Bernstein:  Bill Bernstein: Revisiting The Four Pillars of Investing | MorningstarMorningstar Long View Interview of Aswath Damodaran:  Aswath Damodaran: A Valuation Expert’s Take on Inflation, Stock Buybacks, ESG, and More | MorningstarFactor Investing Book:  Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing: The Way Smart Money Invests Today by Andrew L Berkin | GoodreadsSupport the show

In this episode we open up Season Four by answering emails from Pete, Arnold and Igor.  We discuss Pete's slightly levered Golden Ratio type portfolio, TJUL and buffered funds generally and a Portfolio Visualizer anomaly.   It's Shplendid!Links:Optimized Portfolio Article re UPRO and other leveraged ETFs:  The 9 Best Leveraged ETFs To Enhance Portfolio Exposure (2023) (optimizedportfolio.com)EDV and ZROX Comparison:  ZROZ vs. EDV ETF Comparison Analysis | etf.comPerfect Portfolio Book:  In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest by Andrew W. Lo | GoodreadsBarry Ritholtz Article re TJUL:  My New ETF: 100% of Upside + 0% of Downside - The Big Picture (ritholtz.com)Support the show

In this episode we close out Season Three with a discussion of the annual rebalancings we performed last week on four of the Sample Portfolios -- the All Seasons, the Golden Butterfly, the Golden Ratio and the Risk Parity Ultimate.It's nitty and its gritty.Link to Portfolios Page:  Portfolios | Risk Parity RadioSupport the show

In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo and Stanley.  We discuss a podcast interview of Professor Jean-Phillipe Bouchaud about methods of analyzing complex systems and financial markets and compare investments in small cap blend and small cap value funds.Links:Rick Bookstaber podcast interview of  Professor Jean-Phillipe Bouchaud:  Seeking Risk: The Fab Rick Show: The Science of Risk (libsyn.com)The Origin of Wealth book:  Amazon.com: The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of Economics and What it Means for Business and Society: 9781422121030: Beinhocker, Eric D.: BooksRandom Matrix Analysis:  Random matrix - WikipediaDragon Kings Article:  Dragon king theory - WikipediaPortfolio Visualizer Analysis of Small Cap Blend vs. Small Cap Value:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer an email from Marcy.  We discuss the modern and extended histories of the FIRE movement,  FIRE movements and FIRE literature of the past from the 19th Century and beyond, the parallels of modern portfolio mistakes with those of FIRE circa 1990, and do a case study of Marcy's FIRE goals and portfolio using Portfolio Visualizer.  (Errata -- I said "21%" for two allocations in the third portfolio when I meant 26%.)And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Local TV News Story on Father McKenna Center:  Father McKenna Center seeks men’s clothing donations in DC – NBC4 Washington (nbcwashington.com)My 2016 Essay about FIRE:   Prospecting Mimetic Fractals - Prospecting Mimetic FractalsQuiet Life video:  In Praise of The Quiet Life - YouTubeRamit Sethi video with the Jensens:  “We achieved FIRE with $4.3M. Why can’t we enjoy it?” | IWT 108 | Ramit Sethi - YouTubeRamit Sethi with the Mad Fientist:  Ramit Sethi – How to Spend (and Actually Enjoy It) - YouTubeMad Fientist Blog Post re Ways to Spend More Money:  The Problem with the 4% Rule (and Why You Could Retire Even Sooner) (madfientist.com)Terhorst's Blog:  Welcome to Paul and Vicki Terhorst’s Perpetual Travel Blog – Paul and Vicki Terhorst’s Perpetual Travel Blog (wordpress.com)Portfolio Visualizer Analysis of Marcy's Proposed Retirement Portfolio:  https://tinyurl.com/bdnmmubhPV Analysis of RPR Alternative No. 1 (Golden Butterfly):  https://tinyurl.com/bd5dtnddPV Analysis of RPR Alternative No. 2 (Golden Ratio):  https://tinyurl.com/9fkjx5b9Portfolio Charts Calculators:  Charts – Portfolio ChartsRecent Interview of Gwen Merz:  Navigating Career Transitions: Gwen Merz's Inspiring Journey from Corporate Success to Entrepreneur — Earn & Invest (earnandinvest.com)Diania Merriam:  Diania Merriam: Who the hell am I? - YouTubeRose Lounsbury Site:  Home - Rose LounsburySupport the show

In this episode we answer questions from Esek and Jeffrey.  We discuss the difficulties of assessing long term care needs and potential approaches and how RP portfolios differ and are similar to other approaches, such as buffered stock funds.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterPortfolio Charts Heat Map Calculator:  HEAT MAP – Portfolio ChartsLarry Swedroe Discussing His Personal Portfolio Involving 50% Alternative Assets:  Show Us Your Portfolio: Larry Swedroe - YouTubeSupport the show

In this episode we answer questions from Shplendid Spencer, Russel and MyContactInfo.  We discuss the pros and cons of online calculators and how they are commonly inadequate and/or misused, why being conservative beyond realistic possibilities is probably not a good idea overall, and an article by Aswath Damodaran about Nvidia, the chip industry and the implications of AI for DIY investing.  CORRECTION:  I said the Heat Map calculator was at Portfolio Visualizer -- it's actually at Portfolio Charts at the link below.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Spencer's Tool Link:  Rich, Broke or Dead? Post-Retirement FIRE Calculator: Visualizing Early Retirement Success and Longevity Risk - Engaging Data (engaging-data.com)Similar Portfolio Visualizer Analysis Tool:  Asset Liability Modeling (portfoliovisualizer.com)Tyler on Security Analysis Podcast:   Tyler (@PortfolioCharts): The Amazing Power of Uncorrelated Assets (securityanalysis.org)Portfolio Charts Heat Map Tool:  HEAT MAP – Portfolio ChartsArticle on The Top Five Regrets of the Dying:  The Top Five Regrets of the Dying - WikipediaList of Cognitive Biases:  The Prospecting Lens - Prospecting Mimetic FractalsAswath Damodaran Article:  Musings on Markets: AI's Winners, Losers and Wannabes: An NVIDIA Valuation, with the AI Boost! (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude"), MyContactInfo and Brown.  We discuss passing 500,000 downloads, hi and jinks, the relationship between returns, the projected safe withdrawal rate and the Holy Grail principle, and using Berkshire Hathaway as a basis for portfolio construction.Links:Value Stock Geek with Your Truly:  The Security Analysis Podcast: Frank Vasquez - Risk Parity Investing for the DIY Investor on Apple PodcastsThe All Weather Strategy Paper:   Bridgewater Paper 2009.12 AW Info Pack.doc (granicus.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Thurston Howell VI, MyContactInfo and Keith.  We discuss DBMF and managed futures funds generally, my family's rapture with the sport of rowing and how to make basic asset location decisions to minimize taxes.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Barry Ritholtz Interview of Andrew Beer (DBMF) (2021):  Andrew Beer on the Hedge Fund Industry (Podcast) - Masters in Business - Omny.fmDBMF Web Page:  iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF | iMGP FundsDBMF Current Holdings Link (download):  https://partnerselectfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/Holdings/DBMF-Holdings.xlsxTaxation of Gold -- CNBC Article with links:  Gold, silver ETF owners face 28% top tax rate on capital gains (cnbc.com)Asset Swap Tutorial from Justin/Risk Parity Chronicles:  How to Do an Asset Swap - YouTubeSupport the show