Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer emails from Thirsty Horse, Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude") and Mark.  We discuss our charity, assorted Monte Carlo simulations on Portfolio Visualizer and data sources, rebalancing of leveraged portfolios and the choice of leverage (follow up on Episode 259), Flight of the Conchords, and the pitfalls of trying to use valuation metrics as crystal balls.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Become a Patron and Support our Charity:  Risk Parity Radio | creating A Podcast | PatreonMonte Carlo Analysis of basic Golden Ratio portfolio back to 1994:  https://tinyurl.com/mswkra9cMonte Carlo Analysis of Golden Ratio portfolio back to the 1970s:  https://tinyurl.com/hzd6xfttPortfolio Charts Retirement Spending Calculator: RETIREMENT SPENDING – Portfolio Charts Michael Kitces Optimized Rebalancing Articles:  Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)Aswath Damodaran on Long View Podcast:  Aswath Damodaran: A Valuation Expert’s Take on Inflation, Stock Buybacks, ESG, and More | MorningstarAswath Damodaran/Equity Risk Premium: Damodaran On-line Home Page (nyu.edu)Errant 2013 Paper re 4% Rule:  delivery.php (ssrn.com)Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2014:  Shiller PE: Bad Market Timing, Good Retirement Planning (kitces.com)Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2016:  Reducing Retirement Return Assumptions For High Valuation? (kitces.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from R.J., Mark and Jaako.  We discuss how amateur investors doing projections often double-count inflation accidently and apply inappropriate tax rates, using low-beta funds in portfolio construction, and ETFs designed to combat inflation in Finland and elsewhere.Note I misspoke and the USMV low-beta portfolio does better than the two created in Mark's backtests.Links:Value Stock Geek's Podcast Interview of Tyler from Portfolio Charts:  Tyler (@PortfolioCharts): The Amazing Power of Uncorrelated Assets (securityanalysis.org)Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo Simulator:  Monte Carlo Simulation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Rational Reminder Interview of Professor Campbell:  Prof. John Y. Campbell: Financial Decisions for Long-term Investors | Rational Reminder 250 - YouTubeAnalysis of Low Beta Portfolios:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Mark's Correlation Analysis:  Asset Correlations (portfoliovisualizer.com)Fund Page for Jaako's Fund:   Lyxor EUR 2-10Y Inflation Expectations UCITS ETF - Acc | LYX0U6 | LU1390062245 (justetf.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Bruce, Raymond and Alexi (a/k/a "Dude").  We discuss what we learned from last year about the performance of various assets in a severely rising interest environment, holding a conservative portfolio in accumulation to sleep better and one of the Dude's gambling experiments involving UDOW and TQQQ.Links:Updated UNC Paper re Bonds, Flights to Safety and Stock Market Volatility:  SSRN-id1436124.pdfPortfolio Charts Time to Financial Independence Calculator:   FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE – Portfolio ChartsAlexi's UDOW/TQQQ Analysis:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Long Term Analysis of Total Market vs. 50/50 Large Cap Growth/Value:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from MyContactInfo, Mark, Kasey and Eric.  We discuss a Kitces article about managing capital gains tax brackets, some of Mark's favorite episodes -- 208 on ideas for beginning investors and 209 about common safe-withdrawal-rate hysterias, Big ERNs' blog post on personal inflation rates and my response on his site, and the problems of substituting mental accounting about buckets and other things with actual strategies.Links:Michael Kitces Article:  The Tax Impact Of The Long-Term Capital Gains Bump Zone (kitces.com)Early Retirement Now Blog Post:   Accounting for Homeownership in (Early) Retirement– SWR Series Part 57 – Early Retirement Now2022 Morningstar Report on Withdrawal Strategies:  Six Retirement Withdrawal Strategies that Stretch Savings | MorningstarEarn & Invest Interview of Christine Benz about the Morningstar Report:  Are Safe Withdrawal Debates Ridiculous — Earn & Invest (earnandinvest.com)Ben Carlson Post on the inherent Mental Accounting of Bucket Strategies:  The Mental Accounting of Asset Allocation - A Wealth of Common SenseSupport the show

In this episode we answer emails from Drew, Carlos and Eric.  We discuss the UPAR and RPAR risk parity ETFs and their construction, rant a bit about TIPS, discuss attractive narratives about de-dollarization in the context of cognitive biases (the possibility effect and ignoring base rates) and how our adult children use a Golden Ratio-style portfolio to save for intermediate goals.Links:Father McKenna Center donation page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterUPAR webpage:  UPAR Risk Parity ETF (rparetf.com)Michael Kitces interview:  Michael Kitces: How Higher Yields Affect Asset Allocation and Retirement Planning | The Long View (simplecast.com)De-dollarization article:  De-dollarization Has Begun. | AIERSupport the show

In this episode we answer emails from Eric (x2), Ron and Jeffrey.  We discuss the EconoMe Conference, my friendship with Diania Merriam, bid/ask spreads at various brokerages, an exquisite analysis of margin leverage vs. leveraged ETFs and the gold/gold miner fund GDMN.Links:EconoMe Conference 2024:  EconoMe Conference - March 15th-17th, 2024Father McKenna Center Giving Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterRon's Leverage Analysis I:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Ron's Leverage Analysis II:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)Article re Margin vs. Leveraged ETFs:  Margin Trading vs. Leveraged ETFs | Cumberland AdvisorsCorey Hoffstein Interview About Using Leveraged ETFs:  How to Improve a 100% Stock Portfolio Using Return Stacking w/ Corey Hoffstein (theinvestorspodcast.com)GDMN ETF webpage:  Global Gold Plus Gold Miners Strategy ETF Fund| WisdomTreeSupport the show

In this episode we answer emails from Bob (one of the famous Bobs), Mitchell and Davis.  We discuss stable value funds vs. intermediate treasury bond funds, thinking about management issues in your 80s (and your parents), and what we have learned about leverage in portfolios since 2020.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Rational Reminder video about leverage:  Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTubeOptimized Portfolios -- Beating the market with leverage:  How To Beat the Market Using Leverage and Index Investing (optimizedportfolio.com)Support the show

In this short but jammed-packed episode, we goof off with some of our regulars and answer emails from Brian, Alexi (a/k/a the "Dude"), MyContactInfo and Kasip.  We address a variety of random musings about some new treasury bond ETFs and Simply ETFs, Flight of the Conchords humor, what AI has to say about Medicare Advantage and Medigap, and what to do as a resident alien about a 401k.  I can't make these emails up!  We'll get back to our normal level of absurdity next time.Links:New Treasury Bond ETFs:  ETFs | Invest in the US Treasury Market | US Benchmark Series (ustreasuryetf.com)Animal Spirits Podcast re Treasury Bond ETFs:  Animal Spirits Podcast: Talk Your Book: How to Buy Treasuries (libsyn.com)Animal Spirits Podcast  re Simplify ETFs:  Animal Spirits Podcast: Talk Your Book: Diversify Your Diversifiers (libsyn.com)Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Lauren, Paul and MyContactInfo.  We discuss Emerson and Thoreau and how we apply their teachings, comparing risk parity style portfolios with others using Portfolio Charts, and an article about Bill Bernstein's new bond ladder and how it fits in.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Self Reliance by Emerson:  Self Reliance by Ralph Waldo Emerson (Full Text) (thefreshreads.com) A Guide to Self Reliance:  Self-Reliance: Change Your Life For The Better - Ralph Waldo Emerson (emersoncentral.com)Parable of the Ham:  The Parable of the Ham – Results TypicalGolden Butterfly Portfolio Particulars:  Golden Butterfly – Portfolio Charts60/40 Portfolio Particulars:  Classic 60-40 – Portfolio ChartsThree-Fund Portfolio Particulars:  Three-Fund Portfolio – Portfolio ChartsRisk-Reward Comparisons of Common Portfolios:  RISK AND RETURN – Portfolio Charts2022 Comparisons of Common Portfolios:  Learning the Hard Way: 2022 Portfolio Rankings – Portfolio ChartsBill Bernstein Article about his new  Bond Ladder:  Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor PerspectivesSupport the show

In this episode we answer emails from Javier, Adam, and Jeff.  We discuss what to do with limited 401k options and the Macro Allocation Principle, revisit an academic article we discussed in Episode 251 with some additional critical thinking skills, and talk some about Corey Hoffstein's return stacking, developments in leveraged fund and the Pimco StocksPlus family.Links:Rational Reminder Video re Using Leverage:  Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) - YouTubeRSBT Fund Page:  Bonds Managed Futures - Return Stacked ETF (returnstackedetfs.com)Lots of Articles About Leveraged ETFs:  Leverage | Optimized PortfolioMorningstar Analysis of Pimco StocksPlus:  PSTKX – PIMCO StocksPLUS® Instl Fund Stock Price | MorningstarSupport the show