Conversations with Bill Kristol

After the historic Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, what should we look for as the Supreme Court begins a new term? How will the Court handle controversial subjects such as affirmative action and religious freedom? How should we understand the current Court’s jurisprudence? To discuss these questions, we are joined by University of Chicago law professor William Baude. According to Baude, with its emphasis on originalist jurisprudence, the Court has become more willing to take bold actions—and likely will continue to do so this year. Yet Baude argues that the centrality of the Court today in settling the most controversial matters in our politics is as much a consequence of the failures of Congress as the judicial philosophy or temperament of Supreme Court justices. Kristol and Baude also discuss similarities and dissimilarities with eras like the New Deal when the Court acted as a counter-majoritarian force against a popular and unified Congress. Kristol and Baude also consider the threat of election subversion, a theme Baude addressed in greater depth in a memorable and important Conversation last year.

How has the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade affected the course of the 2022 midterm elections? How has it affected the standing of the two political parties? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Brookings Institution Senior Fellow William Galston. According to Galston, the galvanizing effect of the Dobbs decision on Democratic voters has eaten into the advantage the out-of-power party typically has in an off-year election. Swing voters who view Republicans as too far from the mainstream on abortion, and other issues, threaten to upend GOP hopes of a Red Wave in November. At the same time, Galston reflects on the Democrats own vulnerabilities, particularly on cultural issues, which could hurt their electoral chances in November and beyond.

Where do things stand in Ukraine six months into the war? How have the United States, Britain, and NATO contributed to the war effort to this point? What more could we do in the months ahead? What broader lessons should we draw? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Tom Tugendhat, Conservative MP for Tonbridge and Malling and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the British parliament. According to Tugendhat: the end result is clear. The courage and commitment of the Ukrainian people means that Ukraine will not and cannot be a Russian satellite or a Russian colony again. Nonetheless, as he argues, America, Britain, and the rest of the NATO allies must continue to support Ukraine on the military and diplomatic fronts to ensure a successful outcome. Tugendhat and Kristol also consider lessons we might learn from the new geopolitical situation we face following the withdrawal from Afghanistan and Putin's invasion of Ukraine. On this front, Tugendhat presents a compelling case for strengthening the alliance of free states around the world for the sake of our own security and prosperity and for the security of the world at large.

Why do great cities rise and fall? Why have cities been pivotal to the dynamism and growth of America's economy? What are the threats cities face today—and what can we learn from history about how best to help our cities thrive? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Ed Glaeser, chairman of the Department of Economics at Harvard University, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, and one of the world’s leading experts on the economics and politics of cities. Glaeser explains that cities benefit from and encourage the human desire for proximity to one another, which can lead to new ideas, the transmission of discoveries, and entrepreneurship. But cities also are vulnerable to stagnation and decline, particularly when entrenched interests engage in "rent-seeking”— policies that keep newcomers down or out. Glaeser notes that we should avoid the temptation to develop a rigid set of policy prescriptions for every city, or to believe we know precisely how to plan cities or neighborhoods. Rather, he argues, we should favor policies that encourage innovation and development, and do not restrict the opportunity for people to cluster in the urban areas they choose.

What have we learned about Donald Trump’s influence on Republican elected officials, candidates, and voters through the primary season? What are the central tensions in the party as we head toward the midterms and 2024? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. According to Ayres, Donald Trump remains the center of gravity in the Republican Party and is broadly popular among party regulars. And yet there is a majority of Republican voters Ayres calls “Maybe Trump” who might be willing to consider an alternative in 2024. Ayres points to how some Republican elected officials have successfully managed to avoid Trump’s insistence on denying the outcome of the 2020 election—and considers possible paths forward for the party that would allow some distance from Trump. Kristol and Ayres also discuss Republican prospects in the House and Senate in 2022 in light of issues including abortion, Joe Biden’s approval, and the quality of candidates in both parties.

Is Donald Trump still the center of gravity in the Republican Party? Will Joe Biden run for reelection? What might our politics look like in 2023 as the races for the 2024 presidential primaries kick into gear? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran reporter and commentator A.B. Stoddard. In Stoddard’s view, the most likely outcome is Trump announcing his candidacy soon—and Biden not seeking reelection. She forecasts a scenario in which Trump maintains his hold on the Republican Party by exerting pressure on loyalists in the House of Representatives, while trying to fend off challenges from potential rivals like Ron DeSantis. As for the Democrats, Stoddard argues that the party has not yet come to grips with the challenge of attracting swing voters nor fully grappled with the likelihood of Biden not running. Bottom line: more volatility ahead.

In the spring of 2019, when most analysts thought Joe Biden had little chance of winning the party’s nomination, Democratic strategist Joe Trippi predicted that Biden would be the nominee. Now, as analysts predict a Republican wave election in the midterms, Trippi again challenges the conventional wisdom by arguing that the Democrats will do better than expected in 2022. As he puts it in this provocative Conversation, the data at this juncture do not point to a red wave tsunami but rather what could turn out to be like a red mirage. Trippi highlights the fact that poll numbers in Congressional races have been decoupling from the president’s approval ratings—both in the generic ballot, and in high-profile Senate races like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Georgia. Along with other factors like partisan engagement, Trippi argues that the 2022 midterms may turn out to be less a referendum on the president’s performance and more of a choice election between particular Republican and Democratic candidates in each race. And, in that environment, Democrats could outperform expectations. Trippi and Kristol also consider tensions within the Democratic Party and how these might play out between now and the midterms, and as we look ahead to 2024.

What is the state of the war in Ukraine? What is the Ukrainian theory of victory? What are Vladimir Putin’s current aims? What are the strategic and political challenges facing the US and NATO allies? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Eric Edelman, former ambassador to Turkey and Finland and undersecretary of Defense. Edelman argues there is much uncertainty now that Russia appears to have changed its war strategies—but the Ukrainian resistance remains robust. While praising efforts by the US and European allies to help Ukraine, Edelman notes that war fatigue, declining munition stocks, and some lack of political resolve pose difficulties that must be addressed. In sum, Edelman presents a bracing case for ramping up support to Ukraine. Kristol and Edelman also discuss the importance of strengthening NATO while continuing to address other pressing geopolitical challenges for example in the Middle East.

We see inflation in our daily lives from prices at the pump, groceries, and services—and as a major focus in our politics. How have the war in Ukraine, the response to Covid in China, and other domestic and international developments shaped our economic outlook? What policies could we pursue to fight inflation and boost the economy? Joining us to consider these questions is American Enterprise Institute economist Stan Veuger. Veuger argues that, given the turbulence of the last few years, the economic situation of the United States remains stronger than we might have anticipated. But to address the threat posed by inflation and other problems in the economy, Veuger calls for a number of public policies—increasing the supply of goods through reform of regulatory and trade policies, increasing the labor force through immigration, and tapping our domestic energy supply—all of which could help us navigate these uncertain times.

Nearly a year and a half into his presidency, how is Joe Biden doing? What are the key tensions within the Democratic Party? How strong is Donald Trump’s grip on the Republican Party? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns, New York Times reporters and authors of This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden, and the Battle for America’s Future, a thoughtful and provocative account of the 2020 Elections and the Biden presidency so far. As Martin and Burns argue, Donald Trump has remained the leader of his party to a greater degree than Republicans thought possible after January 6th. Meanwhile, Biden has struggled to navigate the polarized politics of the era—including the internal tensions within the Democratic Party. Kristol, Martin, and Burns consider possible paths forward for the parties, including presidential hopefuls in 2024 if Biden and Trump are not the nominees.