Conversations with Bill Kristol

What have we learned about Donald Trump’s influence on Republican elected officials, candidates, and voters through the primary season? What are the central tensions in the party as we head toward the midterms and 2024? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. According to Ayres, Donald Trump remains the center of gravity in the Republican Party and is broadly popular among party regulars. And yet there is a majority of Republican voters Ayres calls “Maybe Trump” who might be willing to consider an alternative in 2024. Ayres points to how some Republican elected officials have successfully managed to avoid Trump’s insistence on denying the outcome of the 2020 election—and considers possible paths forward for the party that would allow some distance from Trump. Kristol and Ayres also discuss Republican prospects in the House and Senate in 2022 in light of issues including abortion, Joe Biden’s approval, and the quality of candidates in both parties.

Is Donald Trump still the center of gravity in the Republican Party? Will Joe Biden run for reelection? What might our politics look like in 2023 as the races for the 2024 presidential primaries kick into gear? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran reporter and commentator A.B. Stoddard. In Stoddard’s view, the most likely outcome is Trump announcing his candidacy soon—and Biden not seeking reelection. She forecasts a scenario in which Trump maintains his hold on the Republican Party by exerting pressure on loyalists in the House of Representatives, while trying to fend off challenges from potential rivals like Ron DeSantis. As for the Democrats, Stoddard argues that the party has not yet come to grips with the challenge of attracting swing voters nor fully grappled with the likelihood of Biden not running. Bottom line: more volatility ahead.

In the spring of 2019, when most analysts thought Joe Biden had little chance of winning the party’s nomination, Democratic strategist Joe Trippi predicted that Biden would be the nominee. Now, as analysts predict a Republican wave election in the midterms, Trippi again challenges the conventional wisdom by arguing that the Democrats will do better than expected in 2022. As he puts it in this provocative Conversation, the data at this juncture do not point to a red wave tsunami but rather what could turn out to be like a red mirage. Trippi highlights the fact that poll numbers in Congressional races have been decoupling from the president’s approval ratings—both in the generic ballot, and in high-profile Senate races like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Georgia. Along with other factors like partisan engagement, Trippi argues that the 2022 midterms may turn out to be less a referendum on the president’s performance and more of a choice election between particular Republican and Democratic candidates in each race. And, in that environment, Democrats could outperform expectations. Trippi and Kristol also consider tensions within the Democratic Party and how these might play out between now and the midterms, and as we look ahead to 2024.

What is the state of the war in Ukraine? What is the Ukrainian theory of victory? What are Vladimir Putin’s current aims? What are the strategic and political challenges facing the US and NATO allies? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Eric Edelman, former ambassador to Turkey and Finland and undersecretary of Defense. Edelman argues there is much uncertainty now that Russia appears to have changed its war strategies—but the Ukrainian resistance remains robust. While praising efforts by the US and European allies to help Ukraine, Edelman notes that war fatigue, declining munition stocks, and some lack of political resolve pose difficulties that must be addressed. In sum, Edelman presents a bracing case for ramping up support to Ukraine. Kristol and Edelman also discuss the importance of strengthening NATO while continuing to address other pressing geopolitical challenges for example in the Middle East.

We see inflation in our daily lives from prices at the pump, groceries, and services—and as a major focus in our politics. How have the war in Ukraine, the response to Covid in China, and other domestic and international developments shaped our economic outlook? What policies could we pursue to fight inflation and boost the economy? Joining us to consider these questions is American Enterprise Institute economist Stan Veuger. Veuger argues that, given the turbulence of the last few years, the economic situation of the United States remains stronger than we might have anticipated. But to address the threat posed by inflation and other problems in the economy, Veuger calls for a number of public policies—increasing the supply of goods through reform of regulatory and trade policies, increasing the labor force through immigration, and tapping our domestic energy supply—all of which could help us navigate these uncertain times.

Nearly a year and a half into his presidency, how is Joe Biden doing? What are the key tensions within the Democratic Party? How strong is Donald Trump’s grip on the Republican Party? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns, New York Times reporters and authors of This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden, and the Battle for America’s Future, a thoughtful and provocative account of the 2020 Elections and the Biden presidency so far. As Martin and Burns argue, Donald Trump has remained the leader of his party to a greater degree than Republicans thought possible after January 6th. Meanwhile, Biden has struggled to navigate the polarized politics of the era—including the internal tensions within the Democratic Party. Kristol, Martin, and Burns consider possible paths forward for the parties, including presidential hopefuls in 2024 if Biden and Trump are not the nominees.

In a recent article, Judge J. Michael Luttig warns that the last presidential election was a dry run for the next. As he explains, since 2020, our political leaders have yet to do what is necessary to protect against future efforts to overturn elections. In this Conversation, Luttig, a former United States Circuit judge, discusses the role that he played in January 2021, when he advised Vice President Pence on the Constitutional arguments for resisting President Trump’s pressure to overturn the election results. As Luttig wrote and posted on Twitter on January 5, and Vice President Pence cited in his letter on January 6, The only responsibility and power of the Vice President under the Constitution is to faithfully count the electoral college votes as they have been cast... and The Constitution does not empower the Vice President to alter in any way the votes have been cast, either by rejecting certain votes or otherwise. But Luttig stresses that serious dangers and threats remain. Given potential loopholes that might be exploited in the Constitution and the Electoral Count Act of 1887, it is possible or even likely that future candidates will engage in efforts to subvert elections. Luttig calls for a national effort to protect the integrity of our electoral system, and explains the urgent need to reform the Electoral Count Act to make efforts to overturn elections less likely to succeed.

Two months into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? What explains the Russian military's failures on the battlefield—and the brave and intelligent resistance of the Ukrainians? How should we grade the response of the US and NATO allies? What geopolitical lessons can we draw from the war? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. To explain the complex dynamics of the war, Kagan highlights both the structural failures of the Russian military and the poor decisions of its leadership. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military has responded courageously and dynamically, which reflects the benefits of a years-long effort to de-Sovietize its army. But many dangers remain, and Kagan calls for the US and its allies to ramp up support for Ukraine. Finally, Kristol and Kagan reflect on the broader geopolitical implications of the war and how the US should prepare for other military threats.

Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine has put the dangers of European reliance on Russian oil and gas into sharp focus. The debate on energy policy in the West is, however, too often built on wishful thinking—particularly regarding our ability to make a transition to a carbon-neutral economy in the next few decades. According to Mark Mills, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and faculty fellow at Northwestern University’s McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science, it simply is inconceivable that the world could move away from hydrocarbons on the time frame casually advanced by politicians in the West. Mills explains—from the vantages of science and economics—that attempting to do so would pad the coffers of the world’s most dangerous regimes, like Putin’s, without meaningfully reducing carbon emissions. Instead, Mills calls for a two-pronged strategy: In the short term, America and its allies should dramatically ramp up production of oil and gas to increase geopolitical strength. While doing so, we should be more ambitious with investment in R&D for better methods of production and extraction, more efficient consumption of energy, and new technologies.

Vladimir Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. We need to be prepared to respond to Putin's threats—and to do so effectively we have to understand the role of nuclear weapons in Russian strategy, in American foreign policy, and in the current global order. To consider these questions, we are joined by Harvard professor of government Stephen Rosen. Drawing on his profound knowledge of the Cold War, Rosen explains the role nuclear weapons have played since the Soviet era. Then as now, Russia’s threat to deploy nuclear weapons aims to deter its adversaries from intervening to defend an ally. Though we must be judicious in our actions, Rosen explains why the West cannot afford to give in to nuclear blackmail. Beyond the potentially disastrous consequences for Ukraine, he contends that surrendering to Putin’s threats would embolden other nuclear states to pursue wars of conquest. Rosen also outlines approaches we should consider to counter Putin’s other potential escalations.