Conversations with Bill Kristol

The period between World War I and World War II has long been a reference point in foreign policy debates, yet much about the period remains in dispute. Why did the United States turn away from internationalism after the First World War? Could the US have shaped an enduring liberal world order in the 1920s? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Robert Kagan, the historian and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. According to Kagan, Usually the peace is lost at a time when the threats are not obvious, and the need to do something is not obvious. Drawing on his recent book The Ghost at the Feast, Kagan highlights the centrality of American leadership to any peaceful world order, and contends it was not inevitable the US would turn away from Europe and Asia in the 1920s. He draws particular attention to the interrelation of domestic politics to foreign policy, and considers the possibility of how under different domestic circumstances Woodrow Wilson’s internationalism might have succeeded. Kagan points to an enduring paradox of American foreign policy: Americans will not tolerate a real serious assault on liberalism in the world writ large, but they are perfectly willing to ignore what’s going on until that challenge appears unmistakably—and they feel they have no choice. Yet the decisions of the 1920s and 1930s, and of the last eighty years, reveal the profound consequences of inaction as well as action.

How serious a threat to the economy is the current turmoil in the banking sector? What are the prospects for a soft landing—or more turbulence ahead? How should we think about the challenge of combating inflation? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was deputy directory of the National Economic Council during the Financial Crisis and then served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obama’s second term. In this Conversation, Furman shares his candid assessment of the current challenges in the macroeconomy: Unless you have [a] soft landing, which I think is unlikely, there’s a recession out there. I used to think the recession was more second half of this year or first half of next year. The banking crisis may move that forward, he says. Yet Furman explains how dynamic is the situation, and lays out several plausible scenarios as well as his views on the key indicators to look for in the months ahead. Furman also reflects on the American economy more broadly, and shares his perspective on the future of inflation and interest rates, debt and deficits, productivity, and immigration.

How has China responded to Russia’s War in Ukraine, and what lessons could the CCP draw from the course of the war? How has the war and other recent developments affected US-China relations—and how should the US and allies advance the cause of deterring China? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Princeton professor Aaron Friedberg. While China has been cautious about intervening directly on behalf of Russia in the war, Friedberg explains that much is at stake for the CCP in Vladimir Putin not losing. Friedberg argues that continued American and allied support for victory by Ukraine would have a strong effect in deterring China and its ambitions to reshape the geopolitical order. He notes that over the last few years Americans increasingly have come to understand the grave military and economic threat to the US posed by China. To meet this challenge, he argues the US must brace itself for a potentially long period of strategic competition with China—and work in concert with allies to develop new networks of military, technological, and political capacities.

One year into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? What have we learned about the character of Ukraine, Putin’s war aims, the fault lines in European politics, and America's resolve? Why should the West continue to support Ukraine? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Anne Applebaum, a leading scholar of Ukraine and Pulitzer Prize winning historian. According to Applebaum, Ukraine’s impressive strength speaks to Ukraine’s virtues in defending itself—as a free country—through an appeal to liberal nationalism and patriotism. This is why an independent Ukraine represents such a threat to Putin’s regime. And Putin remains very clear about his war aims: the destruction of Ukraine as an independent nation. We must not allow this to happen, Applebaum argues, because a Russian victory not only would imperil Ukraine but also the whole European order, and embolden autocratic regimes like China around the globe. An expert analyst of European politics, Applebaum also reflects on responses to the war by European nations, and describes how current Polish-German relations present tensions in the alliance.

What were the major political and diplomatic issues that Israel’s founders faced in 1948? How did they inform the writing of Israel’s Declaration of Independence? What can Israel’s Declaration teach us about natural and historic rights, the relationship of religion and state, and the meaning of national sovereignty? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Neil Rogachevsky, a scholar of Israel studies and political thought at Yeshiva University in New York and co-author, with Dov Zigler, of the forthcoming book: Israel’s Declaration of Independence. Rogachevsky tells the riveting story of the composition of Israel’s Declaration of Independence. Its first draft, he explains, was a collaboration between an American rabbi and a young Israeli lawyer, and produced a text that fundamentally drew upon America’s Declaration of Independence, which blended natural rights and Jewish justifications for the Jewish state. Rogachevsky narrates the drama of the weeks and days leading up to the eve of independence on May 14, 1948, as the Declaration weaved its way through the bureaucracy of the state-to-be before landing on the desk of Israel’s first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion. Ben-Gurion had to make monumental decisions about the character of the state and its relationship to the outside world. His choices, Rogachevsky argues, fundamentally shaped modern Israel—and offer lessons about democracy, rights, sovereignty, religion, and statecraft that resonate to this day.

Eleven months into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? What does the West need to do to help Ukraine win? What lessons can we draw from the war about the ambitions of authoritarians, the resolve of liberal democracies today, and the most pressing geopolitical challenges we face? To discuss these questions, Bill Kristol is joined by Francis Fukuyama, the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, who has led important efforts in education and civil society in Ukraine over the last decade. According to Fukuyama, we are in the midst of a difficult moment in the war. Nonetheless, he argues, the fundamental dynamics remain unchanged: Ukraine can win if it receives adequate military and financial support from the West. Fukuyama argues that Ukraine’s impressive performance and Russia’s weakness should force us to confront and reassess the fashionable narrative of pessimism about liberal democracies. The war, as well as other recent developments, has revealed the reserves of strength and resilience in liberal democracies, while the weaknesses of strong states such as Russia and China have become more apparent. This assessment is not one of complacency. Rather, Fukuyama points to the high stakes of the war—and the importance of strengthening our resolve to defend free countries against authoritarian threats.

Where do things stand two years into Biden's presidency? Should he seek reelection? What other prospective Democratic candidates might emerge in the months ahead? What are the odds Trump will be the Republican nominee, and what might a Republican primary field look like? To consider these questions, we are joined by James Carville, the veteran Democratic strategist. While praising Biden’s accomplishments, and in particular his handling of the war in Ukraine, Carville argues it could be best for the country for Biden to pass the torch to the next generation and not seek reelection. On the Republican side, Carville and Kristol assess Donald Trump’s prospects, and the opportunities for challengers like Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp. Carville contends that Trump’s downward trajectory is striking—gone pecan, as they say in Louisiana. But he acknowledges that the former president still could win the nomination as a result of Republicans’ winner-take-all primary contests and the strong attachment to Trump by a significant faction within the Republican Party. Carville also reflects more broadly on the state of our politics, including the persistence of MAGA policies and attitudes even beyond Trump, and the question of whether the threat to the Democratic Party posed by identity Left politics has peaked.

What is liberalism? How did political thinkers like Machiavelli, Hobbes, Locke, and Montesquieu pave the way for modern liberal societies? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Harvard government professor Harvey Mansfield. Mansfield explains the choice of a politics of rights and consent in the thought of early modern thinkers, especially John Locke. Mansfield discusses the original case for liberalism, and explains how liberalism rightly understood calls upon important human qualities for the defense of liberty. Turning to Aristotle, Mansfield argues that in modernity a land of virtue can still exist—and that serious defenses of liberalism can draw on the fundamental insights of classical thinkers, especially Aristotle.

What is cybersecurity? How has cybersecurity become integrally connected to our national security? What has the War in Ukraine taught us about the vulnerabilities we face? What kinds of cyber threats should we be prepared to meet in the future?To discuss these questions, we are joined by Royal Hansen, Vice President of Engineering for Privacy, Safety, and Security at Google. As Hansen explains, cybersecurity can be understood as the safety, reliability, [and] availability of the technology that has transformed our lives in the past decades. Hansen argues that we have done reasonably well in securing the technologies we rely on. But as we are ever more reliant on technology, we increase our potential vulnerability to threats posed by rogue states and by criminals. To meet future challenges, Hansen advises us to think of cybersecurity as a dynamic and evolving process, in which both private companies and the government must do what is necessary to anticipate threats and maintain supremacy in technology.

What did the midterm elections reveal about Donald Trump’s strength in the Republican Party? What are the central tensions in the GOP as we head into 2023—and what are Trump's chances to win the nomination in 2024? Might Republican elected officials, donors, and other elites coalesce around an alternative candidate like Ron DeSantis? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. According to Ayres, the unmistakeable pattern of losses by MAGA-aligned, election-denying candidates indicate that Trump’s position in the Party is weaker than before. But unwavering support from what Ayres calls the Always Trump faction of the Republican electorate still gives Trump a significant advantage heading into 2024. However, developments in 2023, including decisions of Republican elites to mobilize on behalf of a single challenger to Trump, could prove decisive. Kristol and Ayres also discuss how Democrats might respond to the prospect of a third Trump candidacy, and how that might affect Joe Biden’s decision to seek reelection.