Conversations with Bill Kristol

Has Donald Trump changed since he first ran for president in 2015? How is he conducting his campaign now? What might a second Trump term look like?To discuss these questions, we are joined by Jonathan Karl, Chief Washington Correspondent for ABC News and author of Tired of Winning: Donald Trump and the End of the Grand Old Party. Trump’s 2024 campaign is "based on grievance and revenge,” according to Karl. And he is concerned “we’ll have a constitutional crisis from day one,” because many who upheld the rule of law during Trump's first term would not be around in a second. Karl shows how Trump and his closest advisers now are more determined to root out ordinary members of the bureaucracy who oppose Trump—the so-called “Deep State”—and to weaken Republicans who are not Trump acolytes. What could be a defining feature of the second term, Karl explains, is the highest offices of the land being selected based on personal loyalty to Donald Trump rather than on policy experience or competency. 

To what extent was the Iranian regime involved in Hamas’s attack on Israel? What role are other Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah playing in the conflict—and where do things stand with Iran’s quest for a nuclear weapon? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and one of the leading historians and analysts of Iran. Takeyh explains that the survival of Hamas remains a key strategic goal for Iran in sustaining its “axis of resistance” to threaten Israel. The regime also uses these paramilitary assets including Hezbollah, and especially its nuclear program, to deter the United States and Israel from responding directly against Iran. Takeyh also reflects on Iran’s relationship with Russia and China, its role in the Ukraine War, and the threat to global order posed by the alliance of authoritarian states.

Since Hamas launched its brutal attack on Israel on October 7, the Middle East is the site of a new war, which could escalate in ways that are unpredictable and dangerous. In Europe, the Ukraine War grinds on—with an outcome very much in doubt. China continues to threaten US allies in East Asia. Decisions, calculations, and miscalculations made in Washington, Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing could unleash still greater geopolitical and military threats at any moment.As Eric Edelman notes, we are facing “the most complex and dangerous moment in international security since the end of the Second World War.” In this Conversation, Edelman explains how the wars in the Middle East and Europe, as well as tensions in East Asia, are very much interconnected, and threaten American interests and the global order. Faced with this extremely dangerous situation, Edelman argues for a concerted national strategy of supporting American allies in Europe and the Middle East, deterring enemies, and rapidly building up America’s industrial and military strength. Kristol and Edelman also discuss how political disorder at home threatens our ability to deal with the threats we face abroad. 

What is the state of the economy today? To discuss, we are joined, again, by Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was deputy director of the National Economic Council during the Financial Crisis and then served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obama’s second term.In this Conversation, Furman highlights a significant paradox of the current moment. On one hand, important indicators point to a reasonably strong economy: inflation has been slowing, wages have been rising, and unemployment remains low. On the other hand, Americans remain frustrated about prices and concerned about the future. To Furman, this disconnect speaks to the inability of the data to capture fully the psychological aspects of how inflation and other factors in the economy affect expectations. Furman also shares his concerns about a possible debt crisis if the US cannot get its fiscal house in order.

Where do things stand in Ukraine? What are the battlefield results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive so far, and what military and political outcomes might follow?  Why should the US and allies continue to support Ukraine?To discuss these questions we are joined again by Fred Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Kagan presents a granular account of recent fighting around Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Noting that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has moved slowly, he explains that the war has not reached a stalemate: “The Russians have not shown the ability to stop the Ukrainians from making advances.” Nonetheless, the situation remains highly uncertain, and Kagan argues there is an urgent need for the US and allies to continue supporting Ukraine.  Kristol and Kagan also discuss the debate about the war in the United States, the effects of Russian propaganda, and consider what we’ve learned about Ukrainian and Western resolve from the war.

t’s 14 months before the presidential election. With a Trump v. Biden matchup on the horizon, veteran Democratic strategist James Carville begins with a bracing assessment: “If this election was this November…Biden would be a betting underdog.”In this Conversation, James Carville shares his concerns about Biden’s candidacy and his perspective on the race ahead. Should other Democrats challenge Biden and get into the primary race? Is Trump inevitable on the Republican side? What factors might confound our expectations? In this witty, wide-ranging, and thoughtful Conversation—our 250th episode!—Carville and Kristol reflect on these questions and other factors that might upend our politics as we head toward the 2024 presidential election.As we release episode 250, we want to thank our viewers and listeners who have been with us since the beginning—and those who are joining us now. It’s been quite a time. And we have no intention of slowing down. 

How has American strategic analysis and policy planning toward China developed over the last few years? What parallels can we draw between the early Cold War and America’s geopolitical situation today? How has the war in Ukraine affected US-China competition?  To discuss these questions we are joined, again, by Stephen Rosen, Harvard professor emeritus of government. Rosen argues that American government and civil society are beginning to take geopolitical competition with China much more seriously. He notes that, much like the Korean War, Putin’s War in Ukraine could serve as a galvanizing event that could lead the US to make the kind of economic and political commitments necessary to deter China in the long term. In a wide-ranging and historically rich Conversation, Rosen explains why talent, technological innovation, and forward-thinking military planning all will be essential for America to meet the China challenge.    

Pollster and strategist Whit Ayres discusses the state of the Republican race after the first debate, emphasizing Trump's dominance but also the unpredictability introduced by upcoming trials. Ayres and Kristol assess other candidates such as DeSantis, Haley, Pence, Scott, Christie, and Ramaswamy, considering their breakout potential and ability to challenge the frontrunner. They also delve into topics like division within the Republican Party and the impact of felony charges on a presidential candidate.

How significant is the indictment of Donald Trump in the Jan 6 case? How might the case play out in court, and in our politics?According to Ryan Goodman, a professor of law at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Law’s Just Security blog, the indictment in the Jan 6 case is a momentous development in the legal maelstrom Trump faces, with potentially significant consequences for the 2024 election. Goodman argues that the Jan 6 case likely will differ dramatically from the Congressional hearings—not least because key figures including former Vice President Mike Pence, Rudy Giuliani, and Mark Meadows will be compelled to testify in court. Goodman suggests that the prosecution may succeed in “flipping” some in Trump’s inner circle to become cooperating witnesses in the case. Cautioning that much remains unknown about the timeline, and the political ramifications of it, Goodman argues it’s plausible a trial and verdict might occur before the 2024 elections. 

With the recent rollout of ChatGPT and the development of other generative artificial intelligence, the future of AI—and its potential implications for national defense, economics, and society—has become a topic of urgent inquiry.To discuss where things stand with AI, we are joined by Royal Hansen, Vice President of Engineering for Privacy, Safety, and Security at Google. Hansen explains the breakthroughs achieved over the past decade, and the profound implications that powerful software and computing have brought to domains from language translation and music to medicine, national security, logistics, and other dynamic areas of the economy. Noting the potential of AI for use as well as misuse, Hansen explains why we need to develop thoughtful safeguards in the development of new technologies. According to Hansen, already we are benefiting from just the "low hanging fruit"—as seen in the developments in language translation and other generative AI available today. But the potential for breakthroughs in other fields likely are closer than might have been imagined just a few years ago.