Aaron Friedberg on the China Challenge—and a World in Disarray
Jan 19, 2024
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Exploring the US-China relationship, Taiwan's elections, and CCP views on conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Friedberg discusses challenges from authoritarian powers and China's strategies to wear down the US. Kristol and Friedberg analyze deepening divisions in US foreign policy and the impact of the upcoming elections on global security.
China views conflicts as a strategy to distract the US from Indo-Pacific focus.
Taiwan's election outcome impacts PRC relations and democratic processes.
US must address divisions to maintain credibility in handling global crises.
Deep dives
Analysis of International Crises
The podcast delves into the complexity of the current global situation characterized by major conflicts and tensions. It highlights the interlocking nature of confrontations involving Russia, Ukraine, China, Taiwan, Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, emphasizing the challenges posed by these multifaceted conflicts.
Taiwan's Political Landscape
The podcast discusses Taiwan's recent presidential election, where the DPP secured a victory amidst criticisms and a notable voter turnout. It highlights the democratic process in Taiwan, the domestic issues at play, and the impact of PRC's interference attempts. Additionally, it explores China's perspective on the election outcome and the implications for Taiwan-PRC relations.
US Credibility and Global Dynamics
The podcast raises concerns about US credibility and its handling of international crises, such as the situations in Ukraine, the Middle East, and with the Houthis. It questions the Biden administration's management of complex global challenges and the implications for US foreign policy. Furthermore, it touches on how adversaries like China leverage chaos and uncertainties in global events to weaken US resolve and influence its role in the world.
Implications of the Russian Attack on Ukraine
The podcast discusses the unexpected implications of the Russian attack on Ukraine, particularly how it increased Europe's seriousness regarding the threat posed by China. This event led to a shift in attitudes towards China, with more European countries expressing concerns about deepening dependence on China for essential products. Additionally, there were increased expressions of support for Ukraine and NATO, with a focus on building a strong coalition of democracies in Europe and Asia, supported by the United States.
Uncertainty Surrounding the US Presidential Election
The podcast addresses the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US presidential election and its potential impact on foreign policy. It delves into the implications of a potential second Trump administration, highlighting divisions within the Republican Party and their stance on foreign policy. The discussion also explores how different election outcomes could lead to either deeper political divisions and instability or a return to a more traditional foreign policy approach. The episode emphasizes the critical juncture the US faces in deciding its global posture and alliances in the face of evolving geopolitical challenges and internal political dynamics.
What are the latest developments in the US-China relationship? What can we learn from recent elections in Taiwan? How does the CCP view the wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East?
To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Princeton professor Aaron Friedberg. Considering the situation in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, Friedberg argues that we face distinct but overlapping challenges from “increasingly aggressive authoritarian powers.” According to Friedberg, China has supported our rivals out of the belief that “conflict wears us down, deflects our attention from the Indo-Pacific region, and contributes to divisions emerging in this country over foreign policy in a way we haven’t seen in some years.” Kristol and Friedberg also discuss the deepening divisions in the country over foreign policy, and consider how a Republican or Democratic victory in November could affect the global security situation.
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