Saxo Market Call

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4jWq1NY   - Today we sift through the market reaction to Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs, with the market celebrating their delayed implementation until at least after the April 1 report on US trade policy. We also discuss the mostly wound-down US earnings season, which has proven the best in three years, the big reversal in bond yields, developments in FX and some great links/must reads (see slide deck link) for those trying to grasp the Trump administration's risky strategy. Today features Jacob Falkencrone, Global Head of Investment Strategy with host John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Jacob's piece on BYD: https://bit.ly/4hE819m  John's latest FX Update: https://bit.ly/3X3Axcf  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

The podcast dives into the potential for a USD bear case, highlighting recent developments in U.S. steel tariffs and their effects on the market. A closer look reveals shifts in tech stocks, particularly in the AI sector. The discussion also touches on rising prices for gold, silver, and Arabica coffee due to supply issues and economic policies. Additionally, it examines consumer struggles through retail sales data, connecting these insights to upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions and broader market sentiment.

John J. Hardy, a seasoned Macro Strategist, explores the bearish outlook for the US dollar, emphasizing the urgent need for the US government to streamline its fiscal policies. He highlights the challenges facing major tech firms, particularly Amazon's heavy cloud investments, amid capacity constraints reminiscent of past tech bubbles. Hardy also discusses the implications of current economic trends on corporate earnings and the potential recession risks, all while addressing the competitive landscape of AI investments.

The discussion dives into the recent struggles of major U.S. tech firms like Alphabet and AMD, exploring the fallout from disappointing earnings. It examines the complexities of U.S.-China tariffs and their ripple effects on the commodity market, particularly gold and silver. There's also an engaging analysis of U.S. economic growth risks tied to the MAG7 stocks, while delving into foreign exchange dynamics as the dollar declines. Finally, the conversation covers a potential breakout in commodity trends and rising precious metal prices amid geopolitical uncertainties.

Trump's newly announced tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China have sparked a modest market reaction that raises questions. The implications for the automotive sector and American brands like Tesla are concerning. Ongoing geopolitical tensions are reshaping energy and commodities markets, while farmers in the U.S. face direct repercussions. Additionally, tariff impacts on cryptocurrency and potential recession risks further complicate the economic landscape. In this climate of uncertainty, all eyes are on how the markets will respond.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/40SLUGi Today we look at the tepid market reaction to Trump's threat of imminent tariffs on Canada and Mexico as we wonder whether the market refuses to react until the tariffs are actually in force, thinking some last minute deal will avoid them. Also, lots to sift through in the blitz of earnings announcements incoming this week and next, as well as some thoughts on the ECB, EURUSD and macro data in store for us in the coming week. On today's pod were Global Head of Investment Strategy Jacob Falkencrone, with Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo.  

Today we sort through the quite mixed counter-reaction to the DeepSeek news that hit the market so hard at the start of the week, noting the raft of companies that have now surged after the initial reaction as lower cost AI models are seen as powering lower cost AI solutions. We also look at the commodities complex, where softs and grains are stealing the spotlight. The latest on earnings, FOMC preview and more also on the show, now with the return of the slide deck (link below)! Today's episode features Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy and John J. Hardy, Chief Macro Strategist. Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/40RG7Rh    Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

The news of China's DeepSeek AI model suddenly gained critical mass at the weekend and triggered an avalanche of selling across the incumbent AI space as the implications of this possibly profound disruptor became clearer. Across the board deleveraging, with special intensity in AI-related tech names is the order  of the day as bonds found a safety bid and the JPY did likewise.  On today's podcast were John J. Hardy, Chief Macro Strategist and Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo.  

Today we look at the latest flurry of Trump headlines and whether we are any the wiser on where tariff policies are headed, even as the market takes some encouragement. We sort through some of the next questions to ask about Trump policy as well, especially whether he'll get what he wants from the oil and gas market: lower prices. Elsewhere, the market is issuing a collective yawn after the BoJ hike overnight. And we flag the big event risks of next week and an interesting US option market indicator that suggests some nervousness despite record levels in the US S&P 500. Today features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Chief Macro Strategist John J. Hardy. See John's Q1 Macro Outlook here. See John's Q1 FX Outlook here. See Ole's Q1 Commodity Outlook here. See Charu's Equity Outlook here.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

The day after Trump's inaugural address, we sort through the interesting things that Trump said as well as what went unsaid and break down some of the ensuing market action, most of which was quite modest after the WSJ broke a key story indicating Trump would not be announcing any tariffs until federal agencies were tasked with investigating key countries. Today's episode features John J. Hardy, Chief Macro Strategist and Ole Hansen, Head of Commodities Strategy. See John's Q1 Macro Outlook here. See John's Q1 FX Outlook here. See Ole's Q1 Commodity Outlook here. See Charu's Equity Outlook here.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo.