The podcast dives into Nvidia's tenuous position in the Chinese market, exploring whether China will pursue independent AI silicon development. Insights from expert Ruben Dalfovo help assess Nvidia's performance ahead of critical earnings. Listeners also receive updates on macroeconomic trends, including rising yields and their impact on the tech sector. Attention shifts to Japan's economy and upcoming central bank announcements, alongside discussions on pressing themes like net-zero policies and the impact of stablecoins on the dollar.
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question_answer ANECDOTE
Ruben's Investment Origin Story
Ruben describes his investment background and long-term bias shaped by Buffett and Munger.
He favors high-quality, high-ROIC businesses and long-term compounding.
insights INSIGHT
Realistic Correction Targets
The NASDAQ 100 could see a 7% correction down to its 200-day moving average near 21,200 if the drawdown continues.
A 5% correction for the S&P 500 to its 200-day near 5,950 is a reasonable parallel outcome.
insights INSIGHT
Labor Claims Signal Subtle Weakness
Continuing jobless claims rose to a post-2021 high, hinting at underlying labor-market softness.
This divergence with some strong PMIs complicates the macro outlook for policy decisions.
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Be sure to check out the many links, including those discussed on today's podcast, together with the chart of the day, over at the johnjhardy substack. (available within two hours of this episode upload)
Today we focus on possible correction targets for this drawdown, should it continue, and welcome Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo to the pod, who leads us through his assessment of Nvidia going into next Wednesday's critical earnings call. The China angle for Nvidia is picking up interest of late - will China try to "go it alone" entirely on AI silicon and systems? Also on the pod, a reminder to keep an eye on the JGB market, which continues to pressurize, a look at the Jackson Hole speech incoming later, a preview of other earnings and the economic calendar and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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