The Allan Gray Podcast

The Investment teams at Allan Gray and Orbis have both been talking about the huge disparities in global valuations for some time. There are pockets of the market that are incredibly cheap, but many of the most popular regions and sectors are eye-wateringly expensive. For a moment last year, it seemed as though these disparities were beginning to narrow amid rising inflation and subsequent interest rate hikes. But in 2023, things snapped back. Bond yields have risen sharply, while the areas that tend to be most vulnerable to rising rates, such as technology, have counter-intuitively also continued to rise. In this episode, Radhesen Naidoo, Allan Gray’s joint head of Institutional Clients and the client-servicing lead for Orbis in South Africa, hosts Orbis portfolio managers Alec Cutler and Ben Preston. As they move through world markets, they highlight many of the exciting opportunities for patient investors and explain how Orbis’s Global Equity and Global Balanced strategies differ in their approaches. Offshore investing · The magnificent middle · Orbis: Navigating market change

James Aitken, founder of Aitken Advisors with three decades of experience in the financial system's plumbing, shares key insights on investing, including reflections on the aftermath of the global financial crisis, valuation of Microsoft stock, geopolitical risk in portfolios, and the role of central bank governors in today's financial landscape.

Buoyed by the ongoing excitement around artificial intelligence, the so-called “magnificent seven” (Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, MSFT, Nvidia and Tesla) have been able to count themselves among this year’s biggest winners. And it is easy to understand why: They are great businesses at the forefront of the latest tech developments, and they are expected to deliver exceptional growth. That said, history reminds us that it is exceptionally hard to exceed high expectations over the long term – particularly when they are already baked into a company’s share price. In conversation with Tamryn Lamb, Allan Gray portfolio manager Tim Acker and Graeme Forster, portfolio manager at our offshore partner, Orbis, explain why we share the belief that good, undervalued businesses with fewer hurdles to overcome remain the best bet for long-term investors. They also delve into some of their favourite global investment ideas. Orbis Global Equity: Value in a changing Japan · Local investment update: Balancing caution and optimism

In this podcast, they discuss the winners and losers of the investment landscape over the last five years. They delve into topics such as the Steinhoff case, the dynamics of supply and demand in the paper and packaging industry, and the concept of value traps in investing. They also explore the potential of a South African insurance company for expansion. Overall, they share enduring lessons that investors can glean from the not-so-distant past.

Companies, and their shareholders, are facing increasing levels of scrutiny from the media, activists and the public for the impact they have on the environment and society. As we consider many of the recent headline-grabbing corporate failures, it becomes clear that companies that fail to consider and manage environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors often prove to be poor investments and destroy shareholder value over the long term. In conversation with Nshalati Hlungwane, a manager in the Institutional Clients team, ESG analyst Raine Adams and governance analyst Nicole Hamman separate the fundamentals from the fads, as they explain our approach to investing with ESG in mind. They also detail many of the steps we take as stewards of our clients’ capital to ensure that we are acting responsibly and holding companies to account. Taking stock of our stewardship efforts · ESG: The fundamentals vs the fads · Stewardship Report

In conversation with portfolio manager Rory Kutisker-Jacobson, Matthew Spencer from our offshore partner, Orbis, explains why the investment team believes that the stock market boom over the last few years is making way for a global stockpicker’s paradise. As the deflation of the “Everything Bubble” continues, long-term investors who remain focused on understanding the fundamentals of the companies they invest in are well placed to be rewarded in years to come. In an effort to make sense of the current environment, Rory and Matthew delve into the major global market shifts that are shaping the opportunity set and unpack some of the portfolios’ most compelling ideas. Memory: Industry cycles, not the business cycle · Orbis Global Balanced: Investing through the cycles

From persistent loadshedding to deteriorating national infrastructure, South Africa’s challenges are well known. The recurring negative headlines have prompted many investors to look into increasing their offshore exposure as they ask themselves whether investing in the local market is still worth the risk. In conversation with portfolio manager Tim Acker, investment analysts Siphesihle Zwane and Jithen Pillay discuss the impact of the major local challenges on various industries. They share their thoughts on the South African investment landscape and the global themes that are shaping the local opportunity set, and explain why Allan Gray remains optimistic about a number of attractive JSE-listed companies. Peering through the smoke · AB InBev: The king of beer · Shedding dark on the issue of South Africa’s economic growth

As memories of masks and lockdown restrictions fade, investors face a new list of challenges. Locally, loadshedding has eroded business margins and is casting a shadow on the market. Abroad, the threat of a new banking crisis has proven extremely unsettling and is having a negative impact on sentiment. In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio manager Thalia Petousis and Sandy McGregor, the longest-serving member of the Allan Gray Investment team, reflect on a range of macroeconomic issues as they explain how the current geopolitical dynamics and tightening monetary policy regime are impacting the long-term investment environment. The consequences of South Africa’s greylisting ·

2022 will probably be remembered for being the year of war and inflation, and the end of a decade of “free money” distorting markets. To put it in perspective, a passive 60:40 offshore balanced fund delivered probably its worst performance in US dollars in 100 years, sending a clear message to investors: Things have changed. Allan Gray chief investment officer, Duncan Artus, joins Tamryn Lamb, head of Retail, to unpack why the year was a turning point for markets and trends. They cover everything from AI and energy to cryptos and tech stocks, as they discuss our approach to navigating the risks and taking advantage of the opportunities that lie ahead. Was 2022 a secular turning point and if so, what does it mean for the years ahead? · Investment update: How to invest in a changing world

Although banks are generally geared to economic activity, many local banks proved to be resilient through the COVID-19 pandemic and have been good investments since. But in the current period of high global inflation and slowing economic activity, how will the local banking sector fare? Are there still long-term opportunities? Allan Gray portfolio manager Tim Acker poses this question to investment analysts Pieter Koornhof and Siphesihle Zwane, who have spent time researching some of the biggest names in the sector and determining where the best opportunities lie. Capitec: The way to build a bank · · Do South African banks offer value in a COVID-19 battered world?