Asia Centric by Bloomberg Intelligence

After underperforming for years, Chinese stocks are on a tear, rising more than 16% so far this year and outpacing many regional and global markets. The advance is led by growing optimism that technological breakthroughs like DeepSeek and a sustained pivot to consumption by Chinese officials will help boost demand.  But there are questions about the sustainability of the rally. Have fundamentals for China really improved? And are investors ready to ditch US exceptionalism and Europe’s revival to invest in China equities? If the 2015 market rally and pullback is any guide, investors should brace for a near-term correction, even though equities have entered a bull market in the next 3-5 years, according to Winnie Wu, chief China strategist and co-head of China equity research at Bank of America. She joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Looming US auto tariffs are forcing tough decisions for the world’s biggest automakers, with firms already reeling from high borrowing costs and slower sales. Tesla’s been rocked by a political backlash and plunging sales, while Chinese EV manufacturers gain global market share and make big strides in autonomous driving. The levies – which could raise costs for companies and customers – present an existential threat to the industry, according to Steve Man, global autos and industrials research manager at Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva to discuss the game-changing impact. Read Bloomberg News on how auto tariffs could shake up the industry (https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/ST2QSBT0G1KW) and Steve's full research (https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SSJQKHDWRGG0) on the Bloomberg Terminal.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors are pricing in several interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year as growth slows and risks of a recession rise, but Gao Bin says they may be getting ahead of themselves. The CEO of Kaifeng Investment Management says the cuts will likely come -- but not until 2026. He's also taking a counter-narrative view on China, believing that consumer and tech companies will drive growth in 2025. Gao's macro hedge fund netted returns of more than 70% last year on these calls. He also discusses the outlook for China's economy this year, his favorite and least favorite equities and why running his fund out of Hong Kong rather than New York or London provides an edge as Asia's influence on financial markets grows.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The world’s multi-billionaires, from Elon Musk to Sergey Brin, are increasingly using family offices to manage their wealth – and it’s big business. With more than 8,000 family offices globally managing an estimated $3.1 trillion in assets, it’s set to rival the hedge fund industry in size. Major financial hubs -- from London to Dubai, Hong Kong to Singapore -- are actively competing to capture a slice of this booming market, offering enticing incentives to attract family offices. Dubai-based Ali-Abbas Merali, a partner at Azura Partners, discusses how and where the super-rich are investing their billions. He joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US economy appears indestructible. Since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008-09 and throughout the following downturns including the pandemic, consumption quickly bounced back, the labor market tightened and equity markets outperformed peers. This strength had investors coining the term “US exceptionalism” as it increasingly seemed that the greenback and other assets were the best game in town. But risks are building, from China’s DeepSeek cooling demand for AI stocks in the US to President Donald Trump’s tariffs that threaten inflation, spending and growth. Could these risks unseat the US exceptionalism trade? Is that era potentially behind us? Steve Brice, Global Chief Investment Officer of Standard Chartered Bank, doesn’t think so, and explains why he believes the trade is here to stay – at least for now. He joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The aviation industry has suffered numerous setbacks recently, from tragic accidents to production delays and quality issues at manufacturer Boeing. There are also looming challenges including slower economic growth globally that may curb spending and demand. But one corner of the industry has been thriving since the pandemic – aircraft leasing. Tim Bacchus, a veteran analyst with more than 30 years of experience in the aviation space, believes that profits in the aircraft leasing industry – the companies that purchase and rent these planes – could jump by more than 70% over the next three years. He joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China, the world's second-largest economy, is facing a demographics crisis. Its population fell in 2024 for the third straight year and is projected to halve by the end of the century, while marriages – tightly linked to childbirth in the country – plunged to a record low. The trend of declining birthrates and an aging population, which threatens the labor market and growth, comes even after the government lifted its one-child policy and added a raft of measures to support families.Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ada Li spent more than a year gathering data from local governments and uncovering the cultural and social reasons behind the trends – with some startling conclusions. She speaks with John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva about why the government is unable to reverse the decline, how the cost of childcare is just one part of the problem, and why – surprisingly – it may not be so bad for consumer companies.Read Ada’s full research (https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SN47X8T0AFB7) and related news stories about Asia's baby shortage (https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SM8W0PDWLU68) on the Bloomberg Terminal.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After many months of threats, the US has imposed 10% tariffs on all Chinese goods coming into the country and China retaliated immediately, launching an investigation into Google and putting its own levies on a range of American goods including LNG. Thus begins a new era of protectionism. The tariffs and any additional moves are set to slow economic growth in China, which is already struggling to boost consumer spending, reboot its property sector and lure more foreign investment. This is likely just the beginning, with higher levies to come in a repeat of the 2018-19 trade war. Despite the headwinds, Chinese President Xi Jinping still has a lot of tools at his disposal. Helen Qiao, chief economist for Greater China at Bank of America, joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva to gauge the impact in the world's second largest economy and what could lay ahead.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investing in Asia after its financial crisis of 1997, or in the US following the dot-com bubble or the GFC, would have delivered good performance over the following decade, says Daniel Rupp, CIO and founder of Parkway Capital. Daniel joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast to discuss why he launched an Asia-focused long-only fund at the beginning of 2024 – at the height of investor pessimism toward China. He also sees vast stock picking opportunities across the region and discusses why active rather than passive management might make more sense in Asia than the US.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump is set to disrupt trade across Asia in a repeat of his previous administration, but things are different this time around. He’s expanding his focus beyond China, targeting countries he says pose national security threats or have large trade deficits with the US. Many countries across Asia that benefited from the last trade war may find themselves in the crosshairs. In other words, it's set to be a lot more complicated this time. Sonal Varma, chief economist Asia ex-Japan at Nomura Singapore, joins Katia Dmitrieva and John Lee to unpack what the next four years may look like for Asia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.