Asia Centric by Bloomberg Intelligence

Geopolitical risk is often seen as a market threat, yet the rivalry between Washington and Beijing is driving a wave of investment opportunities. The US push for re-industrialization is boosting demand for Asian exports in sectors such as shipbuilding, power generation and semiconductors while China’s investment in "new productive forces" accelerates its high-end manufacturing upgrade. Timothy Moe, chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast. Moe explains why technology will remain a dominant theme in 2026 and why the firm is overweight Asia ex-Japan, forecasting the region will outperform the US and Europe. He also details why South Korea remains his top pick, citing 35% projected earnings growth and reasonable valuations, and outlines the rationale for his recent upgrade of India. This will also be our last episode for 2025 and we will re-commence on January 8 with a new line up of exciting speakers.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

SoftBank is doubling down on artificial intelligence with a $30 billion commitment to OpenAI and ambitious plans for Stargate – even as risks mount. After a 200% surge earlier this year, shares tumbled 40% in November when Google’s Gemini 3.0 gained traction, threatening ChatGPT’s dominant position in the AI race. Credit stress is rising, with CDS widening to nearly 300 basis points as funding concerns build. Investors and creditors are increasingly uneasy as OpenAI now accounts for about 20% of SoftBank’s net assets, turning what was once seen as a bold growth play into a potential source of concentrated risk. Bloomberg Intelligence equity analyst Kirk Boodry and credit analyst Sharon Chen join John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast. Together they unpack SoftBank’s AI ambitions, its reliance on margin loans and the implications of circular financing. They also weigh up Masayoshi Son’s track record – spectacular wins such as Alibaba and painful failures like WeWork – against his latest AI gamble.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Joining the discussion are Marvin Chen, Senior Equity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, Stephen Chiu, Chief Asia FX Strategist, and Timothy Tan, Senior Credit Strategist. They analyze how Asian equities might outpace the S&P 500 in 2026, with Marvin highlighting opportunities in Korea, Taiwan, and India. Stephen discusses the evolving dynamics of Asian currencies like the RMB, while Timothy dives into potential credit risks and liquidity issues, warning of funding stress that could trigger capital repatriation back to Asia. The future looks intriguing!

Larry Tabb, a market structure expert at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Sharnie Wong, a senior analyst covering Asian equity markets, dive into the striking contrast in global IPO trends. They discuss why Hong Kong is flourishing with a pipeline of over 300 IPOs while others falter. The duo highlights regulatory factors, motivations for going public, and the rising interest of Chinese firms shifting from the US to Hong Kong. They also explore the broader economic implications of dwindling IPOs and potential policy solutions to revive markets.

Taro Kimura, Japan's senior economist at Bloomberg Economics and former Bank of Japan staffer, shares insightful analysis on Japan's current economic landscape. He discusses the resurgence of inflation at nearly 3%, driven by food prices and the 2022 oil shock. Kimura explains how Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's pro-growth policies might complicate the Bank of Japan's ability to manage inflation. He also touches on Takaichi’s controversial remarks about Taiwan and their geopolitical implications, all while examining the challenges and opportunities within Japan's fiscal strategy.

Peter Kim, a managing director and investment strategist at KB Securities, shares his insights on South Korea’s booming Kospi Index, which surged 70% this year, notably powered by AI-linked tech giants like Samsung. He discusses President Lee Jae Myung's pro-market reforms and their impact on investor sentiment, including major tax cuts. Kim also examines the overheating property market and the geopolitical balancing act with China and the US, suggesting that Korea can harness both powers while navigating these complexities.

In this intriguing discussion, Robert Lea, a senior tech analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence focused on China's AI landscape, reveals how China's low-cost, open-source approach sets it apart from the US's expensive AI infrastructure spending. He emphasizes that while US firms plan to invest heavily, China's broader economy may reap more benefits from its AI rollout. Lea explores the contrasting paths of both nations, touches on the challenges of achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI), and questions profitability timelines for Chinese tech firms.

Giovanni Serio, a 20-year veteran of commodity trading and former head of research at Vitol, dives into the secretive world of trading houses like Vitol and Trafigura. He sheds light on how these firms operate, driven by flexibility and scale. Giovanni highlights the critical role of technology and data analytics in transforming market transparency and discusses how geopolitical events have reshaped trading dynamics. He also explores why oil prices are increasingly influenced by supply rather than demand and the evolving culture within the commodity trading sector.

The world's demographic shift is often framed as a looming crisis, but new data suggests a more nuanced outlook. Hong Kong leads the longevity frontier with an average life expectancy of 86 years, having steadily increased by 0.25 years annually for over 150 years. Meanwhile, a landmark IMF study finds that today's 70-year-olds have the same cognitive ability as 53-year-olds in 2000, underscoring how healthier aging is reshaping workforce dynamics. Kevin Daly, managing director and senior economist at Goldman Sachs, joins John and Katia to discuss why aging may not be economically detrimental, how healthier lives extend workforce participation, and why the “silver economy” narrative oversimplifies consumption trends. Read Goldman Sachs’ related research: The Path to 2075 — The Positive Story of Global Aging (https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2025/05/20/2d3fe290-10b1-44be-8d0e-77b8d303928f.html)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this live episode, recorded at Bloomberg's Investment Management Summit in Singapore, we sit down with Matthew Michelini, head of Asia-Pacific business for Apollo Global Management. We explore his optimism about Japan, driven by its corporate governance reform and the vast $7.5 trillion in consumer deposits. We also discuss how private capital is shaping asset allocation and the challenges posed by intense competition in the private-equity industry. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.