Maggie Lake Talking Markets

Vincent DeLuard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, shares his insightful market predictions. He anticipates a stock market rebound before a challenging summer and a tumultuous fall. The conversation dives into bond yields, the influence of tariffs, and the enduring strength of the US consumer. DeLuard also discusses the implications of rising bond yields and potential capital gains taxes, while drawing parallels between current economic conditions and the stagflation of the 1970s, all set against a backdrop of evolving geopolitical dynamics.

In this conversation, Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO of Burggraben Holding AG, provides an insightful analysis of China’s evolving economy. He discusses the troubling real estate crisis which he likens to a Ponzi scheme, affecting both domestic and global markets. Stahel argues that China is undergoing a balance sheet recession, questioning the credibility of official debt figures. He also highlights the implications of Xi Jinping's policies on economic growth, warning that misallocated capital may lead to a rise in 'zombie companies'.

It’s been 84 years since we last had Jacob Shapiro, Head of Geopolitical and Macro at The Bespoke Group, on Talking Markets. Well, 7 weeks actually, it just feels like 84 years. Jacob joins Maggie Lake today to discuss what the Fed’s comments may signal about its approach to tariffs, the likely outcomes he sees for the tariff wars, and the shifting relationships between the US and Europe, China, and Russia. Also up for discussion: the arrest of Erdogan’s rival in Turkey and what it means for the country’s long-term prospects, the Ukraine war, and whether Europe is any closer to operating from a position of strength. Follow Jacob on X here: https://x.com/JacobShapAnd listen to his new podcast with Marko Papic here: https://geopolitical-cousins.captivat... Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-me Connect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.com *We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Maggie Lake is joined by Rupert Mitchell, author of the Blind Squirrel Macro Substack, to welcome another week of volatility (probably). Last time Rupert was on Talking Markets (December 2024), he told us that China equity markets presented “a multi-year opportunity with interesting entry levels here and now.” He sure deserves a victory lap for that one. So, what's his latest outlook on China - is the equity market attractive or has its 20% jump in 2025 alone taken it into "too late" territory? Also up for discussion: the China consumer story, the great rotation out of US assets, and why the Squirrel is becoming less bearish on Canada. You can find more of Rupert's work here: https://substack.com/@blindsquirrelmacroDon't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-meConnect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.comConnect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielakeChapters: 00:00 - Introductions with "Blind Squirrel"01:00 - Why There Is Still Downside in U.S. Equities02:03 - Is the U.S. Bubble Bursting? "Overowned, Overgrown, Overhyped"03:50 - The Impact of Reallocating U.S. Equities06:50 - Can Market Trends Extend Longer Than Expected?08:30 - Optimizing AI for Supply Chains: Efficiency and Innovation10:05 - Where Are Investment Flows Going Outside the U.S.?12:45 - China's Crackdown on Tech: Impact on Investments15:05 - Can China Successfully Revive Its Economy?17:10 - Opportunities and Advice for Investing In China19:55 - China's Beer Market and Anheuser-Busch's Position22:10 - The Strength of Chinese Consumer Staples23:30 - Europe & Canada vs. Opportunities in Asia26:35 - U.S. Economy: The Grass Isn't Always Greener29:40 - What Is the Administration's Pain Threshold?*We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

In this special edition of Talking Markets, Maggie Lake is joined by Praetorian Capital Management Founder and CIO Harris Kupperman to discuss the potential shift from US dominance to compelling opportunities in international markets. Kuppy shares why the US has been a capital "capacitor," why he's bullish LatAm, why Europe is an "emerging market," why MAGA may be bad for US equities but good for US nominal GDP, and a TON more. This is Kuppy at his candid, incisive, and wildly entertaining best. Recorded March 7, 2025.Follow Kuppy on X here: https://x.com/hkuppyGet a free trial of KEDM here: https://kedm.com/Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-meConnect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielakeConnect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.com00:00 - Intro00:55 - Start of the Epsidoe: Harris Kupperman 01:45 - Inflection Investing: Finding Hidden Market Gems03:05 - The Active vs. Passive Investment Debate05:00 - The Overweighting of U.S. Tech in Portfolios07:20 - The U.S. Dollar Collapse & Global Rebalancing10:15 - The Rise of Emerging Markets & Europe’s Rebound13:45 - NVIDIA’s Dominance & Its Global Impact16:50 - How to Start Investing Internationally19:55 - Is Europe An Emerging Market?25:00 - The Latin America Investment Boom30:00 - The U.S. Recession & Its Global Impact32:00 - China’s Role in the Global Economy35:30 - Can A Shock To The System Make It Collapse 41:30 - The AI Bubble: Is the Hype Justified?43:40 - Managing Market Uncertainty in a High-Volatility World47:30 - The Devaluation Of The Dollar & Inflation 55:10 - It's About Politics: Where To Stay Away From. *We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Maggie Lake is on the road so we're delighted to welcome Harry Melandri, senior advisor to Arque Advisors and author of the Respice Finem Substack, who is hosting TradeGateHub coach Dale Pinkert. It could not be a better time to have Dale update us on what he's seeing on the technicals side - he'll be sharing his outlook on everything from Mag 7 to metals, and the key levels he's looking at as the market continues to grapple with uncertainty. Join TradeGateHub for free here: https://tradegatehub.com/Follow Dale on Youtube ‪@TradeGateHub‬ Follow Harry on Substack here: https://respicefinemmacro.substack.com/Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-meConnect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.comConnect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielake00:00 - Intro: Harry Melandri & Dale Pinkert 00:40 - We Have Had a Seat Change In Equities 02:00 - Banking Sector 03:40 - Apple To The Downside & 05:55 - Trade War with China & Supply Chain Issues 07:25 - Retail and Consumer Sentiment 09:45 - Where Is The S&P Going?14:55 - Silver Looks Ready To Run16:20 - US Bond Yields 20:00 - Apple's Downside Risk and Implications for the Broader Market 23:10 - What Happens With The US Dollar?28:20 - Shifting Forces In The Foreign Exchange Market 30:30 - Geopolitical Conflicts and Whats Coming For Crude Oil*We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Hopes of a respite after last week's bruising were dashed today, with a Bloody Monday pretty much across the board. Today, Maggie Lake is on the road so we're thrilled to welcome our first guest host, the wonderful Chris Tipper, Chief Economist and Strategist at Ainslie Wealth, who will be hosting the equally wonderful Mish Schneider, Chief Strategist at MarketGauge.com. They'll be discussing President Trump's big gamble, stagflation and Mish's "inflation trifecta," the key number for the NASDAQ, and the outlook for tech, the consumer sector, transportation, and more Connect with Chris on X here: @tipperanalytics and get more of Ainslie's analysis on YouTube here: @ainsliebullion For more on Mish's work: https://marketgauge.com/ & get Mish's free daily here: https://micheleschneider.substack.com/Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-meConnect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.comConnect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielake00:00 - Introduction with Mish Schneider and Guest Host Chris Tipper 00:30 - Is The Administration Sending Us To A Recession? 02:15 - Why Is Trump Taking This Gamble 05:00 - The Dollar06:50 - Who Is Buying The Coming Wall Of Debit?10:30 - Bitcoin, Where Does It Find A Footing?15:30 - The Risk Of Stagflation20:00 - Inflations Expectations 23:20 - What To Know About Gold & Silver25:20 - The Economic Modern Family Framework 30:20 - Where Does Mish See Opportunity?*We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

"International is going to outperform domestic for the next 2-5 years," Jared Dillian said to Daily Dirtnap subscribers this morning. The Jared Dillian Money founder joins Maggie Lake today to discuss international markets, today's job number, and an update on his long Canada thesis. Also up for discussion: his bearish dollar call months ago that is coming to fruition, the brutal week in markets, and of course - your questions. TGIF...Get the Jared Dillian Letter for free here: https://www.jareddillianmoney.com/Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-meConnect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielakeConnect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.com*We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Crypto is Macro Now author Noelle Acheson joins Maggie Lake on Talking Markets to discuss the fallout from President Trump's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement, and expectations around the White House Crypto Summit. Also up for discussion: the labor market, tariffs, and the view from Europe.Connect with Noelle on Substack: https://www.cryptoismacro.com/Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-meConnect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielakeConnect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.comChapters:00:00 - Introductions with Noelle Acheson01:23 - How To Handling The Constant Headline News04:30 - Tariff Impact and What’s The State Of The Economy?06:20 - Jobs Data Could Put a Real Chill Over Sentiment 09:30 - Is the Bond Market Front Running The Fed?10:45 - Will German and Chinse Stimulas Boost Risk Assets?16:00 - Could The Chinese Help Boost Crypto? 20:00 - German Stocks More Attractive than US Stocks?21:10 - Are we at the top of the crypto cycle? 22:55 - Whitehouse’s Crypto Summit & The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve 30:50 - Crypto’s Recent Price Action*We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Markets didn't like the slowdown in the February ISM manufacturing index (to 50.3 from 50.9 in January) today, while a surprising increase in the Price Index for manufacturers raised the specter of stagflation. Meanwhile, President Trump's announcement of a strategic crypto reserve, the tariffs that are (so far) meant to begin Tuesday, and ongoing geopolitical heat are all impacting markets. Whew. Joining Maggie Lake today to discuss all of this is Hedge Fund Telemetry founder Tom Thornton, who will also be sharing his views on Mag 7, the bond market, and his China plays. Drop your questions for Tommy in the live chat...! More from Hedge Fund Telemetry here: https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: https://maggielake.markets/notify-meConnect with me on Twitter: https://x.com/maggielakeConnect with me on Substack: https://maggielake.substack.com