

Episode 57: Recession, Then More QE. With David Rosenberg
Jun 2, 2025
David Rosenberg, the president of Rosenberg Research and a seasoned expert in economics, joins to discuss the intricate dynamics of the current market landscape. He argues why long-term Treasuries are undervalued, despite widespread pessimism. Rosie reveals the housing market's pivotal role as a leading indicator and draws parallels to 2007. He emphasizes the significance of soft data over flashy headlines and offers insights on constructing resilient portfolios in today's unpredictable environment.
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Term Premium Drives Yield Spike
- The rise in treasury yields mainly stems from a heightened term premium due to policy uncertainty, not inflation or growth expectations.
- Bond market signals increased risk aversion, suggesting economic challenges ahead prior to notable fiscal developments.
Recession Signals in Real Rates
- Real federal funds rate is over 2%, a historic precursor to recessions.
- Rosenberg expects a recession inevitable within months, leading to lower yields and a bond market rally.
Buy Overshoots When Pessimism Peaks
- Use market overshoots during turmoil as buying opportunities.
- Extend bond duration when pessimism is highest, as it signals potential market bottom.