Riskgaming

Lux Capital
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Feb 2, 2024 • 28min

The stove hasn’t changed in decades. It’s time to upgrade.

Impulse Labs is rethinking home appliances, aiming to upgrade the user experience. They discuss the lack of innovation in appliances, the potential of electrifying appliances, and their successful experience at CES. They also explore misconceptions about induction stoves, marketing challenges, and the difficulties of upgrading homes in San Francisco.
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Jan 24, 2024 • 26min

Astronauts all lie, but the biggest lie is that we will colonize Mars (Zach Weinersmith, Part 1 of 2)

Colonizing Mars has gone from the speculative fiction section of the bookstore right into the halls of Congress. Entrepreneurs led by Elon Musk have made “Occupy Mars” a tagline, and companies the Earth over are exploring the logistics of settling humans across the Moon and Mars. But what’s the true viability of a Mars settlement plan? Do we have the technology and legal systems in place to make this one-time fiction a reality? Popular cartoonist and author, Zach Weinersmith, wrote “A City On Mars” alongside his wife Kelly Weinersmith to explore that very question. Starting with an optimistic lens, they eventually conceded in the book that the project is one of extraordinary difficulty and are pessimistic at its chances. “A City On Mars” won a slew of best-of awards in 2023 for its delightfully engaging and humorous breakdown of complex physical and biological topics. In this first part of a two-part series, host Danny Crichton and Lux’s scientist in residence Sam Arbesman discuss with Zach the biological and psychological challenges of inter-planetary settlement and why every astronaut lies about their health in outer space. We also explore the challenges of reproduction in space, and what a second generation of settlers might have to endure in the far reaches of our solar system. Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠
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Jan 24, 2024 • 25min

Why a Mars settlement could never be a libertarian paradise (Zach Weinersmith, Part 2 of 2)

The current drive for a Mars colony revolves around two central axes: one is a fear of existential risk and the other is a search for existentialism. On the former, philosophers and probabilists remain deeply concerned about humanity’s Achilles heel: that our entire existence depends on the sustenance of a single blue dot in the Milky Way. Humanity’s fate is fundamentally tied to this single rock, which gives little redundancy from an asteroid strike, nuclear winter, or pandemic. At the same time, many entrepreneurs hear a rallying cry when they think about a Mars colony, arguing that a bold and long-term project is precisely what is needed to galvanize humanity to work together, overlook our internecine differences and find transcendence amidst the celestial cosmos. Even if outside our lifetime, a drive toward a space colony could be an existentialism that offers meaning and sustenance to our lives. In this second and final episode, Zack Weinersmith, who along with his wife Kelly Weinersmith are the authorial duo of A City on Mars, join host Danny Crichton and Lux’s scientist-in-residence Sam Arbesman to talk more about their negative prognostication for a Mars colony. Taking a more optimistic view, we also talk with Zach about what we should be doing to prep for a colony, including collecting more laboratory data and expanding science’s understanding of life under microgravity conditions.
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12 snips
Jan 17, 2024 • 16min

How Impulse Space’s Helios will democratize access to Earth’s farthest orbits

The cost of launching a payload into low-earth orbit has shrunk dramatically over the past two decades as SpaceX has aggressively expanded its capability to repeatedly launch payloads into orbit at cheap cost. But accessing orbits farther away from Earth, such as Medium Earth orbit (MEO) and Geostationary orbit (GEO), remain expensive endeavors. Lux’s portfolio company Impulse Space, which is building the next generation of rocket propulsion for space, unveiled the design specs of its new high performance kick stage vehicle Helios today. The vehicle will allow operators to move objects like satellites from Low Earth orbit to orbits farther away at just a fraction of today’s costs, and it’s coming soon in 2026. I talked with Impulse Space’s CEO and founder Tom Mueller about Helios, as well as the growing concerns over space junk, a recent satellite emergency over Christmas, the television show The Expanse, space traffic control and what it means to move things in space and bring them back home.
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Jan 16, 2024 • 10min

Why Tokyo’s Sakana AI is pioneering a new vanguard of national AI foundation models

Lux announced big news today: we are leading a $30 million founding seed round into Sakana AI, a Tokyo, Japan-based AI research laboratory that uses evolutionary methods, collective intelligence and character-level training to radically accelerate the training and development of nature-inspired AI foundation models. It’s a marquee check for Lux into the Asia-Pacific region, and represents the continuing democratization of the frontiers of computer science to all regions of the world, a trend we’ve championed for years now. I, your host Danny Crichton, wanted to spend some time on the economic and technological milieu that is changing the face of startups and entrepreneurship globally in 2024. In this episode, I walk through three themes that are driving Lux’s interest in Sakana AI and other companies, including the rise of national and indigenous AI foundation models, the return of Japan’s dynamic economy after decades of stagnation, and the broader ambitions of the Asia-Pacific region as China recedes from the minds of international investors in the midst of President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on private entrepreneurship. Music composed by https://www.georgeko.co/ "Securities" is produced and edited by Chris Gates
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Dec 21, 2023 • 44min

WTF Happened in AI in 2023?

Hey, it's Danny Crichton. 2023 was an incredibly busy year, and nowhere was there more fervent attention than on artificial intelligence. OpenAI launched ChatGPT at the very end of 2022, and its implications found purchase this year among more than one hundred million users and the regulators who serve them. Those product developments don't even get into the crazy governance crisis at OpenAI a few weeks ago, which saw Sam Altman and then the board of directors toppled in a story that likely outshone the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank as the most important tech crisis of the year. Billions of dollars of venture capital flowed into the AI space, with investors funding everything from data infrastructure and better model training to the applications that are already beginning to transform industries across the world. Governments have moved with alacrity to regulate this new technology, but progress is unabated and unstoppable. The "Securities" podcast has aggressively covered these developments throughout 2023, with interviews with more than a dozen experts in all facets of this new technology, from the corporate executives building these products and the generals using these new features for American defense, to the critics who caustically analyze AI's supposed truthful implications and the philosophers debating the theory of mind and consciousness of these systems. So as the final episode of the podcast this year, I wanted to connect all of these separate discourses around artificial intelligence together into one cohesive package. We clipped nine of the best segments from episodes across 2023 — special thanks to our producer Chris Gates on finding these treasures. A retrospective, an incitement to innovation, a warning — it's all here, so let's get started. This episode was produced, recorded and edited by Chris Gates Music by George Ko
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Dec 15, 2023 • 41min

Eliot Peper's new novel 'Foundry' and the Future

Novelist Eliot Peper discusses his new book 'Foundry' with host Danny Crichton in this engaging podcast. They explore the geopolitical intricacies of semiconductor manufacturing, the creative process behind the book, the fascinating world of semiconductors, the power of fiction in understanding complex topics, and the prospects of time travel and the future.
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Dec 13, 2023 • 24min

Erik Hoel (part 2): Dreaming, AI, and the Future of Education

Join neuroscientist and AI researcher Erik Hoel as he discusses the intriguing connection between dreams, AI, and the future of education. Explore the idea of dreams as a way to prevent cognitive overfitting and the decline of geniuses. Discover the potential for AI to revive one-on-one tutoring and reshape our understanding of consciousness.
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Dec 8, 2023 • 35min

Erik Hoel (part 1): The Consciousness Winter

Erik Hoel, expert in consciousness studies, discusses 'The Consciousness Winter' with host Danny Crichton. They explore the subjective nature of consciousness, debates on consciousness' impact on culture, and various theories and thinkers on consciousness, including Integrated Information Theory.
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Dec 1, 2023 • 31min

Techno-Pragmatism: Looking Beyond Blind Optimism and Hopeless Pessimism

Welcome to "Securities," a podcast and newsletter about science, technology, finance, and the human condition. In this episode, Danny Crichton and Josh Wolfe discuss themes from Lux Capital's Quarterly Letter, where techno-optimism collides with the despair of techno-pessimism. The conversation dives into the paradoxes of AI, oscillating between its awe-inspiring potential in transforming healthcare and education and the looming existential threats it poses. Danny and Josh dissect the complexities of AI, debating whether it's a Pandora's box leading humanity towards an unstoppable dystopian future or a beacon of hope promising unprecedented societal benefits. They also look at the critical role of error correction and criticism in the advancement of technology, advocating for a pragmatic middle ground in a world polarized between blind optimism and hopeless pessimism. The duo explores the necessity of competitive open systems in fostering innovation, warning against the dangers of AI monopolies. Josh sheds light on the concept of instrumental objectivity, emphasizing the urgent need for realism and pragmatism in technological and societal progress. They argue that while we aim for lofty future goals, the focus should remain on developing practical tools and instruments in the present. It's a must-listen for anyone interested in the future of AI, the role of innovation in society, and the fine line between utopian dreams and apocalyptic realities.

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