The Higher Standard

You asked for it and we heard you. Today's episode is a focused single topic edition with a deep dive in to everything you need to know about The Fed. How its Board functions, how they get the positions and more. Of course we had to take a few shots at Neel Kashkari because he often has an opinion that frustrates Chris and Saied. Then as a special ending, we cap the show with an homage to Saied's favorite topic, cryptocurrency. We cover five strange facts about Sam Bankman-Fried that are shockingly true. Stay tuned all the way to the end because some of these will blow you away. Resources:The 5 weirdest Sam Bankman-Fried stories Michael Lewis told to ’60 Minutes’ (Market Watch)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

The podcast episode covers topics such as frustration with clickbait titles, the global economy and holding rates higher for longer, impacts of higher interest rates on property affordability, Joe Biden's indifference and problematic dog behavior, the Tupac murder revelation, regional bank crises, and the importance of stepping away from work.

The hosts kick off with humorous banter and heartfelt thanks to their listeners. A lively Q&A reveals personal anecdotes and thoughts on sports nostalgia. They dive into interest rates and market dynamics, stressing financial discipline for young investors. Real estate investment experiences highlight asset leveraging and tenant satisfaction. The conversation also touches on the impact of rising interest rates on loans and bonds, alongside strategies for college savings and investment insights, all while keeping the mood light with listener interactions.

In a spectacular display of machismo, Saied gives Chris not one, but three separate fist pounds during this sensational episode. Maybe Saied was just happy that the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged? Maybe it was the Fed's terrible track record of forecasting what the economy is likely to do? I guess we will never know, but what you will know for sure after this show is that we may be in the biggest housing bubble ever, Zillow shifted their 2024 home price forecast down and 30-year mortgage rates have in fact hit 8%. Economic data, financial literacy and a healthy portion of fisting. What else could you ask for? Resources:The Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged. Here’s how it impacts your money (CNBC)Take the Fed forecast with a grain of salt. It has a terrible track record (CNBC)Biggest Housing Bubble Ever (Nick Gerli via X)Zillow once again shifts its 2024 home price forecast. Here’s why (Fortune)The Fed would be ‘flying blind’ on interest rate decisions after a government shutdown (CNBC)30-Year Mortgage Rates Rise Again, Flirting with Historic Peak (Investopedia)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Please place all seat back and tray tables in their locked and upright positions, because you're about to go on a long voyage of economic data baby! Saied, Chris and Haroon are back and they have a lot to talk about in this episode. The September 20th Fed announcement hasn't even happened yet and Goldman Sachs is already saying that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in November. So, naturally The Higher Standard had to chime in to the debate. Chris offers up a questionable segue into why a soft landing could not only be elusive, but then explains why the current Fed Policy is costing the Fed between $100 billion and $200 billion themselves. Chris and Saied then dive down deep in to the dark canyon of a hole that is the inverted yield curve where they discuss the wide spread between the 2-year and 10-year treasuries. Which also happens to be at it deepest inversion since 1981. Haroon provide an elegant hypothetical answer to an intimate personal question and legendary investor Jeremy Grantham is ringing alarm bells. Resources:Fed unlikely to raise rates in November, says Goldman Sachs (Reuters)Why a Soft Landing Could Prove Elusive (Wall Street Journal)Fed losses breach $100 billion as interest costs rise (Reuters)Economist says S&P 500 will sink 40% due to recession (Business News)Spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries at deepest inversion since '81 (Reuters)Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham rang the alarm on stocks and recession, warned about the housing market, and hailed Elon Musk's Tesla. Here are his 10 best quotes from a recent event (Business Insider)The bond market has broken the longest time ever with a 10-year field, 3 month inversion at 212 days per Bloomberg (Unusual Whales via Instagram) Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

With an uncharacteristically early recording time, the boys come in extra hot and caffeinated. Saied finally admits to being 1 of the podcast's one star reviews; however, the show did receive a real, legitimate 3 star review from a listener. We wanted to address it head on and talk about the data behind the insurance position which upset someone. They, of course, save the expletive filled rage for the end of the show. This episode covers all the underlying detail of the latest inflation print which continues to show that the real cost of living is likely higher for most consumers. Then Chris and Saied pivot to an article on banks having $1.2 trillion dollars in "hot" deposits which they believe signals a much larger concern. Home prices according to Zillow seem to suggest that there have been tremendous gains still despite even some areas having lived through minor corrections in recent months. What does this mean? Saied and Chris will tell you their thoughts. Make sure to stay tuned all the way to the end because this one gets extra sassy in the last quarter of the show. Resources:Here’s the inflation breakdown for August 2023, in one chart (CNBC)Banks Load Up on $1.2 Trillion in Risky ‘Hot’ Deposits (Wall Street Journal)Real incomes fell last year. No wonder Americans were bummed out (Axios)Home price shift, as tracked by the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) (Lance Lambert via X)August core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3%, hotter than expected (CNBC)Fears over access to credit hit highest level in more than a decade, New York Fed survey shows (CNBC)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Haroon has returned and has already put in for his next PTO request in November where he thought he would be visiting the European country of Belize. While discovering that being Muslim is not an ethnicity, we quickly hop on over to a warning issued by JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon. Jamie D is suggesting that it would be a "huge mistake" to think the economy will boom. Yet, at the same time, new data suggests that the fall in home prices may already be over. Confused? Don't be, we explain what we think is happening. All three of us discuss the Fed's own economist's prediction of a "Goldilocks" scenario where we have no recession, low inflation, and positive growth. Then to cap the show Haroon provides some important life advice. Resources:Jamie Dimon says it’s a ‘huge mistake’ to think economy will boom with so many risks out there (CNBC)The Fall in Home Prices May Already Be Over (Wall Street Journal)The US is on course to build more apartments than ever in 2023 (Chartr Daily Instagram)Business Bankruptcies Soar in August as Rising Interest Rates Bite (Bloomberg)The Fed's own economists now expect a Goldilocks scenario: No recession, low inflation, and positive growth(Business Insider)The man who bought the NYSE just made a $11.9 billion bet that he can fast-track your mortgage for far less than you’re paying now (Fortune)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

In their second show without Haroon, who continues to be out on PTO in “The Sac,” Chris and Saied decide to crack a few of their own cans during the show in order to pay homage.  Shortly after lamenting the value of Haroon’s contributions they jump in to New York City’s crackdown on Airbnb and what this could mean if other cities follow suit.  They examine the Fed’s Beige Book data, what it tells us about the Fed’s perspective going into the September Fed meeting and give their predictions on whether or not there will be another 25 bps rate increase to Fed Funds.  They then pivot to Roku’s stock jumping after laying off 10% of their workforce while WeWork is reportedly renegotiating all of its leases.  The round out the show by reading on the National Association of Realtors new class action lawsuit, but stop short of a full analysis because they are going to need more time to review the legal filings. It is an episode chalked full of laughs and facts, so make sure to wear your manpon.  Resources:New York City's crackdown on Airbnb and short-term rental goes into effect (Guardian)Fed's Beige Book Shows Slower Activity Growth and Hiring in Peak Summer (Bloomberg)Roku stock jumps after company says it will lay off 10% of workforce (CNBC)WeWork CEO says company is ‘here to stay’ as it renegotiates ‘nearly all our leases’ (CNBC)Monumental NAR lawsuit snags class action status (The Real Deal)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

They boys open the show without Haroon who is once again out on PTO while he visits his in-laws in "Sac." They quickly jump in to a discussion regarding the changing landscape of home insurance in America. Many home insurers are starting to or have already cut natural disaster from policies as climate risks continue to mount. As a proxy, Chris and Saied leverage a Wall Street Journal article which asks the question "Are we ready for a $100 billion dollar catastrophe?" Global insured losses from natural disasters and the number of billion-dollar insured loss events worldwide have increased over time visibly. After all the negativity, Chris wanted to make a pivot in to something positive and highlights an article from CNBC which identifies the three things that Americans say define wealth in their mind. Shockingly none of them require making money, but most of them are a byproduct of making money. Without Haroon in the studio, you will need to pay homage to him by opening a beverage mid-show in order to cover for him in his obnoxious absence. Resources:The Fed's preferred inflation measure stayed high in July — and consumers are continuing to spend (CNN Business)Bigger Pockets x The Data Deli Instagram (Instagram)Full impact of Fed hikes still to be seen in real economy, ex-vice chair Blinder says (Reuters)Home insurers cut natural disasters from policies as climate risks grow (The Washington Post)Are We Ready for a $100 Billion Catastrophe? How About $200 Billion? (The Wall Street Journal)Americans say these 3 things define wealth -none of them require making a lot of money (CNBC)Americans Are Bailing on Their Home Insurance (The Wall Street Journal)Unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.8% in August as payrolls increased by 187,000 (CNBC)Here's where the jobs are for August 2023 - in one chart (CNBC)Shoppers pull back on 'big ticket' items as furniture, appliance sales lag (Yahoo! Finance)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Warren Buffett and Michael Burry's recent actions suggest an impending recession. 61% of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck. US department stores are experiencing higher credit delinquencies amid strained spending.